-
Please be sure to read the rules and adhere to them. Some banned members have complained that they are not spammers. But they spammed us. Some even tried to redirect our members to other forums. Duh. Be smart. Read the rules and adhere to them and we will all get along just fine. Cheers. :beer: Link to the rules: https://www.forumsforums.com/threads/forum-rules-info.2974/
Corona Virus spreading ... US official says no need to worry
- Thread starter Melensdad
- Start date
Here is a very interesting post, which I'm going to copy and paste after the initial screen shot from the comments from Irish's blog.
This person lives in Japan.
In advance, I'll warn that the language is a tad colourful.
-----------------
Greetings from sunny Osaka, Japan. I'm here to tell you it's all bullshit. DO THE FUCKING MATH! Latest stats from here >> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/ show 3,000 deaths. More telling is going to the "age" page and you will see that THE GREAT MAJORITY OF DEATHS ARE THOSE OVER 70, and according to other sites, they had pre-existing health problems. So, that makes this just like the freaking flu.
Here in Osaka there is a tell as to any health problem --- the sirens. Damn ambulances blow them things at night no matter the time, even though there is no traffic after midnight because the trains and subways shut down then. I assure you they have been rather quiet lately. And PM Abe closing the schools? Pure politician, because any perusal of the stats will show that school children are UNAFFECTED BY COVID-19!! In China, as well as everywhere else, the danger is not the virus, the danger is the reactions of fucking idiots that think with their emotions and the immoral politicians that seek to gain by manipulating those emotions. I am fortunate to be in Japan. The people don't panic because they believe the government will take care of them. The only empty shelf here in Osaka? Toilet paper, and masks. Not kidding. Everything else is available in abundance.
But even here, people are starting to avoid crowds. A few large flea markets have been cancelled, and even in a culture where eating out is the norm, our restaurant on Friday night was half of the normal occupancy. However, Shinsaibashi-suji was still fairly active. My interpreter at Nissay hospital told me they are just using basic flu protocal - wash hands, wear mask, don't touch anyone. The Japanese custom of bowing instead of shaking hands or hugging was created for the purpose of preventing the spread of disease.
One big change I have noticed on this visit (my first was in 2005, I have been here since Feb. 2018, my previous visit was 2014.) is the number of Chinese. Tourist or otherwise, on the shopping streets or other tourist destinations you hear a lot of Chinese. So, they have been coming here during this whole fiasco, and there are not bodies laying in the streets. I read where many Chinese are coming here to open Japanese bank accounts to get money out of China because Japan has no treaty or restrictions against it. Whatever, they are here.
What gets me is all of the people that say it is way worse than the gubments are saying. Why do you believe that? Oh, suddenly the fucking media has become trustworthy? Even Zerohedge has turned into a factless fearmonger. Even if the stats were 10x worse than reported, as someone suggested, that would mean your chances of dying from this bullshit would be 7,500,000,000 / 30,000 = 1 in 250,000! And if you are under 70, the odds are exponentially better.
DO THE FUCKING MATH!
Cheers.
This person lives in Japan.
In advance, I'll warn that the language is a tad colourful.
-----------------
Greetings from sunny Osaka, Japan. I'm here to tell you it's all bullshit. DO THE FUCKING MATH! Latest stats from here >> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/ show 3,000 deaths. More telling is going to the "age" page and you will see that THE GREAT MAJORITY OF DEATHS ARE THOSE OVER 70, and according to other sites, they had pre-existing health problems. So, that makes this just like the freaking flu.
Here in Osaka there is a tell as to any health problem --- the sirens. Damn ambulances blow them things at night no matter the time, even though there is no traffic after midnight because the trains and subways shut down then. I assure you they have been rather quiet lately. And PM Abe closing the schools? Pure politician, because any perusal of the stats will show that school children are UNAFFECTED BY COVID-19!! In China, as well as everywhere else, the danger is not the virus, the danger is the reactions of fucking idiots that think with their emotions and the immoral politicians that seek to gain by manipulating those emotions. I am fortunate to be in Japan. The people don't panic because they believe the government will take care of them. The only empty shelf here in Osaka? Toilet paper, and masks. Not kidding. Everything else is available in abundance.
But even here, people are starting to avoid crowds. A few large flea markets have been cancelled, and even in a culture where eating out is the norm, our restaurant on Friday night was half of the normal occupancy. However, Shinsaibashi-suji was still fairly active. My interpreter at Nissay hospital told me they are just using basic flu protocal - wash hands, wear mask, don't touch anyone. The Japanese custom of bowing instead of shaking hands or hugging was created for the purpose of preventing the spread of disease.
One big change I have noticed on this visit (my first was in 2005, I have been here since Feb. 2018, my previous visit was 2014.) is the number of Chinese. Tourist or otherwise, on the shopping streets or other tourist destinations you hear a lot of Chinese. So, they have been coming here during this whole fiasco, and there are not bodies laying in the streets. I read where many Chinese are coming here to open Japanese bank accounts to get money out of China because Japan has no treaty or restrictions against it. Whatever, they are here.
What gets me is all of the people that say it is way worse than the gubments are saying. Why do you believe that? Oh, suddenly the fucking media has become trustworthy? Even Zerohedge has turned into a factless fearmonger. Even if the stats were 10x worse than reported, as someone suggested, that would mean your chances of dying from this bullshit would be 7,500,000,000 / 30,000 = 1 in 250,000! And if you are under 70, the odds are exponentially better.
DO THE FUCKING MATH!
Cheers.
Now China is going to get locusts sounds like the 4 horsemen are riding straight towards them.
SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA - The death toll from the coronavirus in the U.S. climbed to six Monday and the disease spread to ever more countries and world capitals, even as new cases in China dropped to their lowest level in six weeks.
A shift in the crisis appeared to be taking shape, as hundreds of patients were released from hospitals at the epicenter of the outbreak in China and the World Health Organization reported that nine times more cases were reported outside the country than inside it over the past 24 hours.
At the same time, the virus popped up for the first time in New York, Moscow and Berlin, and clusters of the disease surged around the world. In the U.S., health officials announced four more people died, bringing the total to six, all in Washington state, where researchers said the virus may have been circulating undetected for weeks.
The global death toll pushed past 3,000, and the number of people infected topped 89,000, with fast-expanding outbreaks in South Korea, Italy and Iran.
Dr. Mike Ryan, the WHO’s chief of emergencies, pointed out that even regions that have taken less aggressive measures than the extraordinary lockdowns implemented by China have managed to keep the virus in check. Ryan said that because COVID-19 is not as easily transmitted as the flu, “it offers us a glimmer ... that this virus can be suppressed and contained.”
Around the world, the virus reshaped people’s routines, both at home and at work, from the millions of Japanese schoolchildren facing four weeks without class to special voting booths for Israelis under quarantine. Mobile hospitals were planned in Iran, and the “Mona Lisa” hung in a vacant room of the shuttered Louvre in Paris.
https://www.voanews.com/science-hea...-death-toll-climbs-6-viral-crisis-eases-china
A shift in the crisis appeared to be taking shape, as hundreds of patients were released from hospitals at the epicenter of the outbreak in China and the World Health Organization reported that nine times more cases were reported outside the country than inside it over the past 24 hours.
At the same time, the virus popped up for the first time in New York, Moscow and Berlin, and clusters of the disease surged around the world. In the U.S., health officials announced four more people died, bringing the total to six, all in Washington state, where researchers said the virus may have been circulating undetected for weeks.
The global death toll pushed past 3,000, and the number of people infected topped 89,000, with fast-expanding outbreaks in South Korea, Italy and Iran.
Dr. Mike Ryan, the WHO’s chief of emergencies, pointed out that even regions that have taken less aggressive measures than the extraordinary lockdowns implemented by China have managed to keep the virus in check. Ryan said that because COVID-19 is not as easily transmitted as the flu, “it offers us a glimmer ... that this virus can be suppressed and contained.”
Around the world, the virus reshaped people’s routines, both at home and at work, from the millions of Japanese schoolchildren facing four weeks without class to special voting booths for Israelis under quarantine. Mobile hospitals were planned in Iran, and the “Mona Lisa” hung in a vacant room of the shuttered Louvre in Paris.
https://www.voanews.com/science-hea...-death-toll-climbs-6-viral-crisis-eases-china
Interesting that some recent posts say the seasonal flu is more lethal and spreads faster than Corona. Neither of those statements seems to be accurate. The Coronavirus seems to have a higher R0 (R naught) for transmission. CDC says the R0 for seasonal flu is 1.3 while the R0 for Corona is 2 to 3 (and still being determined). But in rough numbers the Corona is transmitted at twice the rate as the flu. Mortality also is projected to be between 1 and 2%. The seasonal flu mortality rate is 0.1%.
When it comes to math, the post is wrong. At least based on WHO and/or CDC statements.
Here is another comparison: https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/02/26/coronavirus-vs-flu-what-you-need-to-know/
Again, dealing with the R0, or the potential infection/transmission rate:
https://www.theatlantic.com/science...t-and-far-will-new-coronavirus-spread/605632/
If someone does the math, and if the same number of people are ultimately infected by the flu and by coronavirus, the coronavirus will kill exponentially more people than the seasonal flu. That is simple math. But again, based on the R0, it seems twice as many people may catch the Coronavirus.
Currently far fewer people have Corona and far more have seasonal flu.
But if the R0 transmission rate is close to accurate then the number of people infected by Corona will easily catch up to the numbers of affected individuals as the seasonal flu. Again, math. And as of today, the only way that governments seem to be able to slow the spread of Corona is via quarantine orders and self quarantine by individuals. With Ebola and SARS the governments were able to contain, and therefore stop the spread despite high R0 rates. That doesn't seem to be the case with Corona. Due to the fact that many infected individuals present no symptoms for up to 2 weeks, they can freely travel and spread the disease, and this seems to be happening.
FWIW, none of this data came from ZeroHedge (which has lately been condemned for hyping panic but seems to still be providing factual information 24-48 hours ahead of the mainstream media sources)
And for the real math geeks among us, the number of confirmed cases outside of China has more than tripled over the past week. If we continue to see a similar exponential growth rate, there will be more than a million confirmed cases outside of China just five weeks from now. Anyone want to bet on the number of cases that will be reported worldwide by mid-April? I wouldn't be the farm it will be 1,000,000 but then again I wouldn't bet against it either. It is clearly possible that we could see a MILLION infected in a matter of 5-6 weeks, despite the fact that some nations are stopping all events over 1000 people, despite the fact that France closed the Lourve Museum, despite the fact that travel restrictions have been imposed, despite the fact that the Catholic Church ordered that no masses be held in Korea until further notice, despite the fact that Japan has closed their schools for a month, despite the fact that some American universities are pulling back their foreign study students and imposing quarantines, despite the fact that airlines are stopping flights to entire nations ...
And all this brings up another point. IF WE DO NOT TEST THEN WE DO NOT KNOW. If we do not know then we cannot accurately report.
Finally, from the New York Times, some information on rates flu patients can expect to spread the seasonal flu vs how corona patients can expect to spread Coronavirus. Bear in mind this NYT article uses math that completely destroys the math and some of the statements in prior blog posts and VOA article. The NY Times article is a long article, lots of graphs, lots of charts, but very informative.
As always, this is just a snippet of the article, go to the link and read the whole article => https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html
US death count from the virus 6.
US deaths from the devastating tornado(Nashville) which stayed on the ground for 1 hour.
9.
So far...
US deaths from the devastating tornado(Nashville) which stayed on the ground for 1 hour.
9.
So far...
For whatever it is worth, I'm not all that worried about the total death count.
How about the total economic toll to the nation? Or the number of families that will be adversely affected if cities are quarantined and people can't go to work for 2, 4, or 6 weeks? Will they lose their homes? Will the remaining small businesses in the small town downtowns close their doors and file bankruptcy? What is the toll on all these small towns and their residents?
There is so much more to consider than the simple number of deaths.
On the other hand, now 19 people dead from the tornado.
Those who have possibly lost their homes, businesses may have been wiped out thus affecting jobs.
Perspective.
WOW
NOPE
NOT EVEN CLOSE
Last time I checked a tornado does not strike nations. They are very very localized events. A single grocery store in one town can be rebuilt, ditto the hardware store and the gas station. But we are talking about the economy of much of the world and tens upon hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The order of magnitude of the difference between a localized tornado in a worldwide pandemic should not be trivialized in this way The order of magnitude of the difference between a localized tornado in a worldwide pandemic should not be trivialized in this way as to make such a simplistic comparisons. I’m shocked by this.
Just being a realist, Bob.
It's a virus.
It's doing what viruses do.
More people have died from the flu this year.
That is also devastating.
This too shall pass and we'll all learn something from it.
I'll stop posting in your epic thread and wait it out until it's no longer newsworthy.
It's a virus.
It's doing what viruses do.
More people have died from the flu this year.
That is also devastating.
This too shall pass and we'll all learn something from it.
I'll stop posting in your epic thread and wait it out until it's no longer newsworthy.
No need to stop posting. Of course it is just a virus that will do what viruses do and at some point it will all move along. I started this thread before it was newsworthy. Before the news anchors on TV ever heard about this virus. In our lifetimes there has never been such an event that has the potential to affect as many people as this one seems to be having. No world war or virus has had the potential this one has and gotten this far. Others have had unrealized potential. None of us remember the 1910 flu. Old as some members may be, I don't believe any served in WWII. This one is clearly going out of control and may devistate the economies of the world in ways we have not seen. Even in war there are good economies.
TWITTER closed their offices and told workers to telecommute. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/twitter-coronavirus-employees-work-at-home-because-of-outbreak/
Great gig if you work there.
But what about factory workers. Literally hundreds of factories are currently closed due to the virus. Tens of thousands of workers are not being paid. Products that should be shipping to retailers are not being produced. Warehouse workers won’t be shipping orders. Truck drivers won’t have freight. Retail stores won’t have goods. Economists are projecting all sorts of goods will be in short supply in April. Starting mostly with electronics, clothes and toys.
TWITTER closed their offices and told workers to telecommute. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/twitter-coronavirus-employees-work-at-home-because-of-outbreak/
Great gig if you work there.
But what about factory workers. Literally hundreds of factories are currently closed due to the virus. Tens of thousands of workers are not being paid. Products that should be shipping to retailers are not being produced. Warehouse workers won’t be shipping orders. Truck drivers won’t have freight. Retail stores won’t have goods. Economists are projecting all sorts of goods will be in short supply in April. Starting mostly with electronics, clothes and toys.
Uh...
Full story at CNBC => https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who...ical-gear-supplies-are-rapidly-depleting.html
Full story at CNBC => https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who...ical-gear-supplies-are-rapidly-depleting.html
WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought
Link—> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who...-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html
road squawker
Active member
Many tornadoes are on the ground for over 200 miles
Which is nothing compared to the economic destruction in Wuhan from one virus. There has been more economic damage to Wuhan than was caused by hurricane Katrina. The difference is that the virus is didn’t stop there. It’s now wreaking havoc in Italy, Japan and Korea. 60+ nations and counting.
Nobody is trying to downplay the local destruction of a major storm, tornado or even hurricane. However none of those has the power to dramatically affect the economics of the WORLD. There is good reason to believe that the coronavirus will put some nations into economic recessions, good reason to forecast economic recession for the global economy too.
This virus dwarfs the damage of a hurricane and hurricanes dwarf the damage caused by tornados.
Just buy gauging the initial response in Wuhan I have felt since from the beginning it could go as high as 10% after making its way around the world into 3rd world countries with poor medical facilities and filthy conditions like Africa, South America etc. That is going to raise those statistics considerably. Also just read where it can survive on protected surfaces out of the sunlight for 4-6 weeks. Thats more than the time it takes for a shipment of goods to arrive from China.
marchplumber
Member
Gettin closer to that "last book" one day at a time.................
I don't think ANY of it will be pretty, fun, or joyful. Just sayin........................
I don't think ANY of it will be pretty, fun, or joyful. Just sayin........................
As I've been saying, the world effects of this disease are going to take their toll. It's not so much the number of people who will die. It is the infectious nature of the disease and the disruption to the economy that are going to be taking their toll on daily life.
We know that thousands of factories are closed and production has ceased on many goods. Other factories are only open with with very limited work crews and minimal production. The shipping ports on the US west coast reported that inbound freight traffic slowed. Major retailers and clothing manufacturers have indicated there will be product shortages in April.
But what about DRUG shortages and how those will affect everyday life? Or medical supply shortages?
Link to FULL story => https://www.city-journal.org/coronavirus-pharmaceuticals-production
We know that thousands of factories are closed and production has ceased on many goods. Other factories are only open with with very limited work crews and minimal production. The shipping ports on the US west coast reported that inbound freight traffic slowed. Major retailers and clothing manufacturers have indicated there will be product shortages in April.
But what about DRUG shortages and how those will affect everyday life? Or medical supply shortages?
Link to FULL story => https://www.city-journal.org/coronavirus-pharmaceuticals-production
Again, just look at the ramifications to our society based on the scale of the effects ...
Projections are that 40-60% of the population will get Corona. If 15% of those need to be hospitalized for 5 days each then we will need more hospitals.
If we contain the virus by limiting public venue activities, close the universities, schools, theaters, sports stadiums, cancel conventions, etc then what is the economic effect to each of us? Job losses, business closings, etc?
Sporting events without spectators are happening. The Arnold Fencing Classic was expected to bring 25,000 people to Columbus, OH this weekend. The competition will happen but the major expo, that part was cancelled. The expo is (was) bigger than the competition. And the competition will have no spectators beyond parents. What are the economic ramifications to Columbus restaurants and hotels from the loss of income for just 1 weekend event? Multiply that times the losses they will experience for the next several months. Project those losses to every city with an active convention center around the county.
Sure, this may not kill a lot of people but don’t dismiss the toll this will take to our communities.
Projections are that 40-60% of the population will get Corona. If 15% of those need to be hospitalized for 5 days each then we will need more hospitals.
If we contain the virus by limiting public venue activities, close the universities, schools, theaters, sports stadiums, cancel conventions, etc then what is the economic effect to each of us? Job losses, business closings, etc?
Sporting events without spectators are happening. The Arnold Fencing Classic was expected to bring 25,000 people to Columbus, OH this weekend. The competition will happen but the major expo, that part was cancelled. The expo is (was) bigger than the competition. And the competition will have no spectators beyond parents. What are the economic ramifications to Columbus restaurants and hotels from the loss of income for just 1 weekend event? Multiply that times the losses they will experience for the next several months. Project those losses to every city with an active convention center around the county.
Sure, this may not kill a lot of people but don’t dismiss the toll this will take to our communities.
Attachments
Coronavirus Math: The Number I’m Watching
Most of our data has been supplied by unreliable China and Iran. What is the case fatality rate elsewhere?
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-math-the-number-im-watching/
You probably shouldn't look at this link Bob.
Most of our data has been supplied by unreliable China and Iran. What is the case fatality rate elsewhere?
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-math-the-number-im-watching/
You probably shouldn't look at this link Bob.
Bamby
New member
There is a very real chance that as bad as it is the loses are likely insured. And peoples jobs who may have been displaced due to damage will likely be allowed to collect unemployment benefits.
People who out of work due to illness or disease have always been pretty much shit out of luck once past some sick or vacation days one may lay claim on. Of course their is a tiny minority who may have bought into Aflack and may covered their butts, but I'd bet disability insurance rates are now through the roof if one could find someone to wright you coverage at all.
Data is very incomplete and very preliminary. Waaaay too early to draw any valuable conclusions from the data. However we are now starting, just starting to get reasonable data from Italy.
Great perspective there Bamby. And realistically building supplies will be shipped in from the lumber yards in the surrounding counties. Health care workers will travel in from the surrounding counties. Food will be shipped in overnight.
I often explain it local terms. Think of a small church parish. Mine brings in about $7000/week in the collection plates. $28,000/month. We have a mortgage on the property. The priest needs his stipend for food, clothing, living expenses, etc. Utility bills need to be paid to keep the heat and lights on. Now what happens if the Bishops order the church services stopped for 1 to 3 months to curb the spread of the virus? Bills continue, debt climbs but the income STOPS
Now if the dioceses has 50 parish churches spread across a 4 to 8 county area, and ALL of the parish churches are closed, then the income stream for the entire diocese STOPS. No way for a parish in 1 town to help out the parish 2 towns away. No way for the diocese to move money from the main Cathedral to a local church. ALL income stops.