2021 everything shortage

[m1west]

Everything is now becoming short supply, There are shortages of everything from PVC pipe to Metals to computer chips. I did some research and it points to globalized trade, mainly China. There is a sea container shortage because China shut down for a year and a bunch of old ones were taken out of service and sold, not being replaced.
Transportation costs for sea travel have went from $2000.00 for a 40' container to $10,000.00 per container.
Everyone everywhere is dependent on materials they need for manufacturing that they are not getting.
The Suez Canal got blocked
Demand for manufacturing declined in 2020 during the pandemic so manufacturing was shuttered
Now there is a demand with no inventory and its driving cost much higher
The US is paying people to stay home.
There is a trucker shortage and fuel costs have doubled.
I am now having trouble finding building materials to run the business

 

[Doc]

Damn. If all container costs have gone up 500% prices will skyrocket.
I do see empty shelves in every store I shop. And I have never ever seen car lots so empty.. No clue how they can stay open if they have no vehicles to sell. Service dept can only carry them for so long.

 

[m1west]

Damn. If all container costs have gone up 500% prices will skyrocket.
I do see empty shelves in every store I shop. And I have never ever seen car lots so empty.. No clue how they can stay open if they have no vehicles to sell. Service dept can only carry them for so long.

I use a lot of stainless steel, round and 1/2 round products. There are none in Ca. Modesto steel where I buy most of my materials found 200' of 5/8" stainless 1/2 round in Texas it normally sells for $3.30 per foot they said they could get it here for $4.00 per foot with a $2,000.00 freight charge. I declined, Lets put this in perspective. A bundle of material 3 inches in diameter 20 feet long weighing 100 pounds costs $2000.00 to transport from Texas to Ca. Reason given- Trucker shortage. Just went to ACE hardware to pick up the last bit of 1-1/2" PVC that I need at the work cabin, I bought 300' so I would have extra . While I was there I bought the last cans of primer and glue on the shelf plus extra fittings. I quizzed them at the contractor desk about supply, I was told they have inventory but restock orders have no delivery date. He also said a local contractor came in yesterday and bought there whole inventory of 4" because he was concerned about getting it when he need it, plus prices are climbing rapidly. Its getting to the point I will have to add a " depending on material costs and availability" disclaimer on my Estimates

 

[Ceee]

A bundle of material 3 inches in diameter 20 feet long weighing 100 pounds costs $2000.00 to transport from Texas to Ca. Reason given- Trucker shortage.

That's ridiculous. I feel for you.

The US is paying people to stay home.

I believe that's the biggest problem.

I didn't want to make this all political, but you brought it up, so I said it.

Edit to Add: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/07/states-will-be-ending-federal-unemployment-benefits-this-week.html

"The states, all of which are led by Republican governors, claim enhanced jobless benefits offer an incentive to stay home and are making it difficult for businesses to hire."

I'm hoping that's going to help the problem.

 

[Melensdad]

I've been watching this too.

There are 2 Snow Tracs that I want to buy. Both are in the same barn. In the UK. I've inspected both. But the cost to bring them home is just too expensive.

Everything imported is going to be in shortage and not just from China. The container shortage will increase the cost of everything coming from South America and Europe too. So toilet paper, which from South America, will be going up as will European luxury brands, plus Korean electronics, and everything in between will see price increases.

This could lead to some increased production in the USA, which would be great, except that we have a labor shortage already.

 

[m1west]

I don't know how its all going to end. Hey Marty can you build some conveyors for me? I don't know let me see if I can get the materials. WTF this isn't good.

 

[Doc]

That's ridiculous. I feel for you.

I believe that's the biggest problem.

I didn't want to make this all political, but you brought it up, so I said it.

Edit to Add: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/07/states-will-be-ending-federal-unemployment-benefits-this-week.html

"The states, all of which are led by Republican governors, claim enhanced jobless benefits offer an incentive to stay home and are making it difficult for businesses to hire."

I'm hoping that's going to help the problem.

It could help but then I got a news headline on my phone that the Feds have started to send out yet another $1400 stimulus. We are doomed.

 

[FrancSevin]

I bought two 20 foot containers last year for about $1,800 each. No problem. There were at lest five guys competing, trying to sell them to me.

This last month I went for two more. NOT AVAILABLE!

If they were, $2,600 each.

As for trucking, my LTL's have me limited to 6 pallets per load. And most two day points are now out eight to ten days. Especially any coming from the East. My Philly plastic supplier has us on rations. Last load, I went to Philly to pick it up. One day there, one day back. I also picked up a packaging line because there wasn't time to wait 10 days to get it in my plant.

My question is, How did all this disruption happen in the last 6-8 months?

It's rhetorical.

 

[m1west]

I bought two 20 foot containers last year for about $1,800 each. No problem. There were at lest five guys competing, trying to sell them to me.

This last month I went for two more. NOT AVAILABLE!

If they were, $2,600 each.

As for trucking, my LTL's have me limited to 6 pallets per load. And most two day points are now out eight to ten days. Especially any coming from the East. My Philly plastic supplier has us on rations. Last load, I went to Philly to pick it up. One day there, one day back. I also picked up a packaging line because there wasn't time to wait 10 days to get it in my plant.

My question is, How did all this disruption happen in the last 6-8 months?

It's rhetorical.

its almost the perfect storm
container shortage ( most come from China )
not getting wood products from Canada
worker shortage
polymer plant burned down in Texas, then when the freeze came it ruined all the cement they just poured
trucker shortage
low demand and COVID shuttered manufacturing for a year
now there is demand but the items listed above are keeping the shortage going likely into 2022
and some thing I forgot
The shortages and inflation are driving cost for what you can get through the roof, you can't find everyday items and if you do they cost a lot more. Round and round she goes, where she stops nobody knows. I blame it on offshore globalized manufacturing and trade deals.

 

[FrancSevin]

I posted once before the enigma of wood products during COVID_19.

Last year the prices were not raised yet one could not find enough materials to build just about any project. Especially treated woods.

Lowes and Home Depot both had empty shelves where common and treated lumber used to reside for sale.

Again, no price increases.

This year it is the exact opposite. Shelves are full and their are bunks of lumber stacked in the back yards 20 to 30 feet high.

No shortage at all yet prices are up 300%

I've heard every excuse and explanation but it simply is not, by what I have seen, shortages.

 

[Melensdad]

Of note, lumber futures are dropping. The price ratio of lumber to gold is also spreading and historically has been an indicator of economic problems. New car and new house purchases are starting to show signs of collapse as people see inflation eating into their pocketbooks making major new purchases a budget problem.

 

[Melensdad]

I'm looking for a new round of supply chain shortages.

China is now partially locking down a major city due to Covid 19. Their vaccines are far less effective than ours are, 50-70% for theirs while our vaccines are in 90% effectiveness range. When any major business and production city is shut down it affects the supply chain. Something new will be in short supply in the next couple months as this situation creates a new set of shortages.

The DELTA variant was previously called the India variant. This outbreak in China is from the Delta/India variant. It is the same variant that is causing large case jumps in England right now, with their cases growing at 50% per week, mostly in their YOUNGER populations, those people under 45, and who are not vaccinated.

From the South China Post:

Flights cancelled, districts locked down amid fresh coronavirus cases in southern China

Shenzhen airport steps up precautions after restaurant waitress identified with highly transmissible Delta variant.

www.scmp.com

Hundreds of flights have been cancelled and part of a city locked down in southern China as the coastal province of ​

Guangdong tries to stamp out transmission of the highly infectious Delta variant of the coronavirus.​

​

Guangdong’s health commission reported a total of six new Covid-19 cases on Saturday, including two from Shenzhen and one each in Foshan and Dongguan. The other cases were in the provincial capital Guangzhou and identified among the quarantined close contacts of previously confirmed patients.​

​

One of the cases is a 21-year-old waitress working at a restaurant at Shenzhen Baoan International Airport and infected with the Delta strain, a variant described as fast-spreading, with a high viral load and a short incubation period.​

​

The Shenzhen Centre for Disease Control and Prevention said the viral samples taken from the woman were identical to those taken from three imported cases as well as an earlier identified case on Monday. Authorities ordered 110 of the woman’s close contacts to be quarantined. ...​

FULL ARTICLE AT THE LINK ABOVE

 

[Melensdad]

Looks like the AMMO Shortage may be easing, both Hornady & Winchester seem to be gearing up and prices are now starting to drop.

And LUMBER PRICES seem to be dropping a bit. So we may have simply had some over-demand bubbles? While I do think we have real inflation, there are some signs that SOME sectors may be easing.

FULL STORY at the link:

DNyuz - Latest Breaking U.S. News

Latest Breaking News, U.S. and World Politics, Crime, Business, Science, Technology, Autos, Entertainment, Culture, Movie, Music, Sports.

dnyuz.com

From sawmills to store shelves to your own hammer swings, lumber can tell you a lot about what’s going on in the economy right now.​

​

Lumber prices soared over the past year, frustrating would-be pandemic do-it-yourselfers, jacking up the costs of new homes and serving as a compelling talking point in the debate over whether government stimulus efforts risked the return of 1970s-style inflation.​

​

The housing-and-renovation boom drove insatiable demand for lumber, even as the pandemic idled mills that had already been slowed by an anemic construction sector since the 2008 financial crisis. Lumber futures surged to unprecedented heights, peaking at more than $1,600 per thousand board feet in early May.​

​

But since then, the prices of those same plywood sheets and pressure-treated planks have tumbled, as mills restarted or ramped up production and some customers put off their purchases until prices came down....​

 

[m1west]

I will take ammo and lumber at lower prices any day over cheap crap coming from China.

 

[m1west]

Just went to the grocery store, Chicken breast that was $1.98 per pound 6 months ago is $3.98 per pound. I bought 3 nice ribeye and 5 thick cut pork chops $183.46. Which makes sense. I read 2 articles yesterday. one said that 35% of dollars in circulation were printed in the 10 months prior to December 2020. And another article that said 20% of all the dollars were printed in the last 6 months. Thats 55%

 

[FrancSevin]

Just went to the grocery store, Chicken breast that was $1.98 per pound 6 months ago is $3.98 per pound. I bought 3 nice ribeye and 5 thick cut pork chops $183.46. Which makes sense. I read 2 articles yesterday. one said that 35% of dollars in circulation were printed in the 10 months prior to December 2020. And another article that said 20% of all the dollars were printed in the last 6 months. Thats 55%View attachment 138101

$183.46; FOR THAT?!?
I'm old enough to remember when that was a month's pay!

 

[pixie]

A $48 steak is about as likely to go home with me as a $10 eight foot 2x4.....NOT Happening !!!

 

[m1west]

Get used to it, you can't print Trillions and Trillions and expect the $$ to hold its value. To those that voted for Biden because Trump is Crass F/U

 

[Melensdad]

You know it is bad when the mortgage companies are setting up tables outside the grocery store so you can take out home equity loans to buy food!