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OPEC to boost OIL Production by 50% ... will it ease a world recession?

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
In a surprise move, OPEN nations have agreed to increase oil production and sales.

The USA intentionally cut production capacity through regulations, restrictions and fees over the past 18 months under the Biden Administration's "transition to green energy" initiatives. The Russia-Ukraine war added further pressure on the oil markets due to embargoing of Russian oil.

The world may be saved from a serious, and at least partly US caused recession, by Saudi Arabia & the other OPEC allied nations. The question remains IF THEY ACTUALLY HAVE THE PRODUCTION CAPACITY to deliver additional oil since they have had a difficult time meeting current production outputs!

FULL STORY AT THE LINK from CNBC


OPEC+ raises output faster than expected as Russia’s war roils global energy markets

Oil pumping jacks, also known as nodding donkeys, operate in an oilfield near Almetyevsk, Tatarstan, Russia, on Wednesday, March 11, 2020.
OPEC and its oil-producing allies agreed on Thursday to hike output in July and August by a larger-than-expected amount as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine wreaks havoc on global energy markets.
OPEC+ will increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in both July and August, bringing forward the end of the historic output cuts OPEC+ implemented during the throes of the Covid pandemic.
The group has been slowly returning the nearly 10 million barrels per day it agreed to pull from the market in April 2020. In recent months, production has risen between 400,000 and 432,000 barrels per day each month.
Oil prices reversed early losses during mid-morning trading, and continued to move higher during the session. By 12 p.m. on Wall Street West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, stood 1.3% higher at $116.80 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude added 1% to trade at $117.53. . . .
“We recognize the role of Saudi Arabia as the chair of OPEC+ and its largest producer in achieving this consensus amongst the group members,” she said in a statement, before adding that the “United States will continue to use all tools at [its] disposal to address energy prices pressures.”
While in theory output will be higher looking forward, OPEC+ has been struggling to meet production quotas. Moreover, the additional barrels slated to hit the market will not make up for the potential loss of more than 1 million barrels per day from Russia as nations around the world ramp up sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine.
EU leaders on Monday agreed to ban 90% of Russian crude by the end of the year as part of the bloc’s sixth sanctions package on Russia since the late February invasion.
In March, crude hit the highest since 2008, and has stayed firmly above $100. The rapid rise is a major contributor to decades-high inflation being seen across economies. . .
Sources told the FT that Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, has not yet seen genuine shortages in the oil markets.
. . .
“Whilst it’s not an outright promise, Saudi Arabia [has] seemingly thrown the West a bone,” . . .
“This will be well received by Western leaders given inflation – and inflation expectations – remain eye wateringly high, and central banks try to raise rates at the risk of tipping their economies into a recession,” he added. . .
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
Just a quick note, not as optimistic as the headlines. Just my observations.

Of the OPEC member nations, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are the ONLY 2 nations that have significant volumes of spare capacity that could be ramped up quickly to add to the global supply.

Several of the African OPEN nations (think Nigera, Algeria, etc) currently have problems even hitting the current production quotas so there is zero chance their can boost their sales.

OPEC allocates production quotas, so while the goal may be to increase production by 50% it is likely that the world market may see something closer to a 20% boost in available oil that actually hits the market. That won't do a lot, but it should, at least halt the price increases, even if only temporarily.
 

Doc

Bottoms Up
Staff member
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And with the EU banning 90% of Russian crude I doubt we see any impact from the increased production. EU will need all the increase and more.
When will Biden and our elected representatives ramp up production here? they have our oil company's operating with one hand tied behind their backs.
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
And with the EU banning 90% of Russian crude I doubt we see any impact from the increased production. EU will need all the increase and more.
When will Biden and our elected representatives ramp up production here? they have our oil company's operating with one hand tied behind their backs.
Realize that Russia depends upon the western nations for oil production technology, expertise, equipment and spare parts. Russia's output is down about 20%.

I don't expect the OPEC move to effectively DROP our gasoline or Natural Gas prices, but it might stop the daily price increases and hold things more stable. A couple cents either direction seems likely but not a steady diet of 5 to 15 cent per day increases. Perhaps I am wrong.
 
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Doc

Bottoms Up
Staff member
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I sure do hope you are right Bob.
Just yesterday I heard someone forecast $8 a gallon by next year. I cannot fathom $8 a gallon. Nor can I afford it.
 

m1west

Well-known member
GOLD Site Supporter
I sure do hope you are right Bob.
Just yesterday I heard someone forecast $8 a gallon by next year. I cannot fathom $8 a gallon. Nor can I afford it.
$8.00 gas is already here in Ca. in the coastal cities, its $6.79 where I am, hearing about $12.00 gas by the end of the summer
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
A couple days ago the Saudi's announced they were raising their prices for oil.

Not sure if the other OPEC+ nations are going to do the same.

Honestly I'm just hoping that gas stays under $6/gallon but I think that is probably a bad bet right now. I did notice that President Biden has announced he is taking the tariffs off of Southeast Asian (Chinese) SOLAR PANELS in hopes that will reduce our dependance upon fossil fuels. Huh???
 
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