Here is a few that may be opposite of what I fear, although it does not consider voters. Rather it looks at momentum of immigration, especially illegals leaving.
I don't doubt any word of it, but I still wonder if there will be a voter backlash if the ICE agents appear to act to aggressively against illegal families prior to the election.
The foreign-born population in the United States declined by an unprecedented 2.2 million in the first half of 2025.
www.theamericanconservative.com
Phillip Linderman
Oct 14, 2025
It was not long ago that Washington’s establishment experts announced that the crisis on the U.S. southern border was unfixable. They claimed illegal mass immigration was a historic phenomenon, an unstoppable force that no president could halt. Typical was the Cato Institute’s David Bier, who wrote two years ago in the New York Times: “Biden Can’t Stop Immigration. Time to Embrace It.” Precisely because these open-border illuminati should be held accountable for their irresponsible pronouncements, view a sample of what Bier wrote:
The data highlights how much of a distraction pinning all migration trends on the executive branch truly is. What’s the point in developing a nuanced understanding of the situation when you believe that all that’s needed is a new person in the Oval Office to proclaim “Stop!” to the huddled masses yearning to breathe free
Bier actually asserted that it did not matter whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump were in the White House because mass illegal immigration would continue. He totally dismissed the power of strong presidential messaging to the world, backed up by executive action, that U.S. federal immigration law would be enforced. As events clearly demonstrated, when Trump returned to the White House, Bier’s yearning, huddled masses quickly figured out that the United States would no longer tolerate waves of economic migrants storming across Mexico to enter our country illegally. Bier’s lack of such a fundamental apprehension should disqualify him as a serious immigration analyst.
By contrast, the journalist Todd Bensman, now working for the border czar Tom Hohman, traveled throughout the Western Hemisphere and reported regularly that U.S. presidential words and deeds were the key determinants in the “go or no-go” decisions of millions of clandestine migrants. It was not distant political upheaval, crop failures, or climate change. Biden told migrants to come, and he would let them in. Trump told them he would detain them and send them back. There is not much subtlety in that.
After the U.S. southern frontier was secured, open-border advocates next asserted that the Trump administration would never succeed in forcing out Biden’s millions of unlawful immigrants. It was another version of the same mantra: forget the rule of law and embrace America’s banana republic status; after all, the country needs the migrants, regardless how they arrived. It is a continuation of the left’s longstanding campaign to erase the distinction between legal and illegal immigration.
When it comes to domestic enforcement of federal immigration law, if success is only measured by deportation numbers, the open-border crowd might have a valid argument. After all, even with stepped-up ICE deportations, federal officials can probably only remove about 600,000–700,000 a year, which is a large number, but not nearly large enough. That is why presidential messaging is again crucial, and Trump is staying on script. All the Sturm und Drang surrounding ICE deportations is a booming voice of warning to the entire illegal population network across the country. A Trump-hostile media, right on cue, regularly amplifies the warning by making a human rights drama out of each ICE operation, stressing or inventing outright stories of “hunting down” illegal migrants.
Two major factors continue to protect the illegal population anchored inside the U.S. interior. The first is the ability to work, which is a tough nut that even the Trump administration, so far, has been loath to try to fully crack. ICE has done some enforcement at worksites, but more is needed. The recent raid on the Hyundai battery plant in Georgia, despite media caterwauling, was actually another very positive step on the public messaging front. Intentionally or not, the ICE raid signaled to the corporate world that visa status for foreigners working in the U.S. matters. The White House now needs to get serious about implementing a national E-Verify program that requires employers to undertake systemic online checks to screen their laborers, but the president seems reluctant to take this step. If Trump would do it, he could begin hacking down the jungle of false documents and identities that are everywhere in our country.
The second challenge is to break the network of sanctuary jurisdictions that accommodate illegal presence in our country. On this issue, the president is taking historic action. The federal law nullifiers in these so-called sanctuary cities and states provide illegal populations a survival ecosystem: the ability to get drivers’ licenses, public school opportunities, free medical and social services. By putting maximum federal pressure on these renegade state and local service programs, and the officials who enable them, the Trump administration is fundamentally changing the game.
Indeed, no other U.S. chief executive since perhaps Calvin Coolidge has so forcefully decided to take on our large metropolitan areas that shield illegal immigrants. Coolidge did not have to overcome anything like today’s state and city governments who thwart federal law. By sending National Guard troops into sanctuary cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, Portland, and Washington, Trump is doing much more than fighting crime in lawless urban areas. He is providing protection and political endorsement for ICE agents to carry out their mission. Indeed, extra federal law enforcement officers are being deployed, including nearly a quarter of all FBI agents, to support ICE in these operations.
Invaluable positive momentum builds with every twisted media story of “masked ICE agents jumping out of unmarked cars” to make arrests; it is free publicity that Stephen Miller could never hope to buy. Each detention has enormous downstream impact, as countless other illegals and semi-legals know they may be arrested, too, and experience out-processing in a place like Florida’s Alligator Alcatraz. Many conclude that it is better to respect U.S. law; they are taking DHS Secretary Kristi Noem’s offer of $1,000 departure money and a free flight home. Deeds, amplified a thousand-fold by credible words, were the key to securing the southern border, and they can also work in the country’s lawless interior urban areas.
Researchers at the Center for Immigration Studies have dug into the data on foreign born persons resident in the United States and are detecting an unprecedented decline in overall numbers. Director of Research Steven Camarota explains that there is always a constant flow of migrants, both legal and illegal, into and out of the country, but for decades, those numbers typically tabulate many more foreign people coming and staying, rather than departing. Nevertheless, there is now a very clear Trump-caused exodus underway, almost assuredly directly tied to the perceived robust enforcement of federal immigration law and all of its downstream impact.
Camarota and his research team report that from January to July of this year the foreign-born or immigrant population (legal and illegal) declined by 2.2 million, with illegal immigrants accounting for nearly three-fourths of that total. Given how Biden was complicit in blurring the difference between legal and illegal migrants, doubtless many in the “legal” category have only the flimsiest claim of lawful presence. Because the Biden administration systematically abused U.S. legal authority like “parole” admission, many foreigners in the country are, in their own minds, genuinely unclear whether they have a valid claim to legal presence or not. Now they perceive it is better to go home than run the risk of arrest in Trump’s America.
The Trump exodus has the potential to become an unprecedented boom in the departure of illegals that can offset the disaster that Biden brought about. We are witnessing an historic moment of executive action—words and deeds—to enforce federal law, which is attributable directly to the steadfastness and determination of Trump and his team. No New York Times nuance anywhere is sight.
