• Please be sure to read the rules and adhere to them. Some banned members have complained that they are not spammers. But they spammed us. Some even tried to redirect our members to other forums. Duh. Be smart. Read the rules and adhere to them and we will all get along just fine. Cheers. :beer: Link to the rules: https://www.forumsforums.com/threads/forum-rules-info.2974/

Violent Crime Up: due to Katrina?

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
Just curious about what all you think, but there was a story yesterday about violent crime increasing here in the US. Its been on a steady decline for years, but has climbed lately.

Now here is my take on it. The evacuees from Hurricane Katrina may be to blame. While some cities that are not large recipients of Katrina evacuees are seeing crime go up, most of the affected areas (generally Texas and the midwest states) seem to be affected the most. Evacuees largely went to Houston and also north into Missouri, Ill, In, KY, Tenn and Ohio. Large groups of evacuees also went into Pennsylvania. Some went farther into Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska, etc. Now read the article below.

Do you think that the human debris from New Orleans may be causing the rise in crime in other areas?

ap_small.gif

Violent crime on rise in big U.S. cities


By PATRICK WALTERS, Associated Press WriterTue Jun 13, 4:57 AM ET

FBI statistics Monday confirmed what big cities like Philadelphia, Houston, Cleveland and Las Vegas have seen on the streets: Violent crime in the U.S. is on the rise, posting its biggest one-year increase since 1991.

In Philadelphia, homicides jumped from 330 in 2004 to 377 in 2005, a 14 percent increase, according to the FBI. Murders climbed from 272 to 334 in Houston, a 23 percent rise, and from 131 to 144 in Las Vegas, a 10 percent increase.
Jeffrey Sedgwick, director of the U.S. Justice Department's Bureau of Justice Statistics, cautioned that it is not yet clear whether the FBI numbers reflect a real increase, or the ordinary year-to-year variations that statisticians call "static noise."

Sedgwick said it is possible that crime rates in the U.S. are approaching a floor below which it may be difficult or even impossible to go. "I'm not sure it's reasonable to expect you can always drive the crime rate down," he said.
Some criminal justice experts said the statistics reflect the nation's complacency in fighting crime. Crime dropped dramatically during 1990s, and some cities have since abandoned effective programs that emphasized prevention, the putting of more cops on the street, and controls on the spread of guns.

"We see that budgets for policing are being slashed and the federal government has gotten out of that business," said James Alan Fox, a criminal justice professor at Northeastern University in Boston. Still, Fox said, "We're still far better off than we were during the double-digit crime inflation we saw in the 1970s."

In Philadelphia, which has had more than 160 murders this year, the police department has responded by creating a special unit charged with roaming the streets in the dangerous hours between 10 p.m. and 3 a.m. The program, which is expected to start soon, will shift 46 officers from other assignments.

Philadelphia police Capt. Benjamin Naish said more people appear to be settling disputes with guns.

"I think that everybody continues to be frustrated within the government, within the department," he said. Philadelphia police have stressed that the number of killings is still below the averages in the mid-1990s and far below the 525 homicides in 1990.

The overall national increase in violent crime was modest, 2.5 percent, which equates to more than 1.4 million crimes. Nevertheless, that was the largest percentage increase since 1991.

Nationally, murders rose 4.8 percent, meaning there were more than 16,900 victims in 2005. That would be the most since 1998 and the largest percentage increase in 15 years. Some big cities felt the brunt.

Murders rose from 59 to 104 in Birmingham, Ala., up 76 percent; from 59 to 85 in Charlotte-Mecklenburg County, N.C., a 44 percent spike; from 89 to 126 in Kansas City, Mo., a 42 percent rise; from 87 to 122 in Milwaukee, a 40 percent jump; and from 79 to 109 in Cleveland, up 38 percent.

"The killings are going in spurts," said Judy Martin, a victims' advocate in Cleveland whose son was shot to death in a 1994 carjacking. "A number of the murders this year seem to come from a number of young men jumping on someone and killing them. We are going downhill."

Detroit, Los Angeles and New York were among several big cities that saw murder numbers drop.

Theories about New York's decline vary. Some experts point to favorable shifts in demographics and the economy, as well as the crash of a once-thriving crack market that fueled violence in the 1980s.

Officials in the 36,000-officer department, the nation's largest, credit their crime-fighting approach. They cite a tactic refined over the past decade in which commanders use computers to track crime patterns — particularly those involving guns and drugs — and deploy patrols where and when criminals are most active.

Police in Houston attributed some of their spike in violent crime to New Orleans gang members who evacuated there along with thousands of other victims of Hurricane Katrina last fall.

The FBI figures were released on the same day authorities announced the arrest in Louisiana of a Katrina evacuee considered one of the Houston area's most-wanted killers. Authorities said he robbed two other evacuees of their FEMA money and shot them, killing one.
 
As noted at the end of the article, some relates to people from NO but the article doesn't provide any detailed information on who the criminals are. If they provided origin and other demographics on the perps further analysis could be performed.
 
You are correct, the article provides no real back up to my theory.

What I believe to know about this issue is what I see. And I see that the evacuees spread like a fan out of New Orleans. Many in Houston, many into Baton Rougue, Birmingham, Memphis, Kansas City, St Louis, Cleveland, Louisville, etc.

Then I look at the article and see that many of those areas are reporting crime increases. HMMM I say to myself. Is there a correlation? I dunno. But I see what I see.
 
Yep, I can see the connection behind your theory. These folks were down and out with nothing in many cases, so they would be more likely to resort to crime (I'd guess).
Reminds me of another unproven theory. 24 bottles in a case of beer, 24 hours in a day. Coincidence? I think not! :beer:
 
Doc said:
Yep, I can see the connection behind your theory. These folks were down and out with nothing in many cases, so they would be more likely to resort to crime (I'd guess).

A very good point Doc.
 
Hmmm . . sounds like fun with statistics. There may be a statistical correlation but it may not provide an explanation.

PB
 
Doc said:
Reminds me of another unproven theory. 24 bottles in a case of beer, 24 hours in a day. Coincidence? I think not! :beer:

Somehow, I've never been able to get a 24 bottle case to last 24 hours....:1062:
 
"Police in Houston attributed some of their spike in violent crime to New Orleans gang members who evacuated there along with thousands of other victims of Hurricane Katrina last fall."


Prior to Katrina the only city in the south that could compare with N.O. in the areas of police corruption and crime was Houston. There is probably some truth in their assertion that N.O. evacuees have added to their problems, but they didn't have a handle on their situation prior to the storm or since from what I can tell.

I don't want to come across as being "defensive" about New Orleans because I'm a resident of Louisiana. I was transplanted here, but in my opinion the biggest criminals in the N.O. area aren't necessarily the "human debris", but the wealthy political machine people that have ruled for the past half-century or more. These guys (Katrina Mary L. in the US Senate, and her brother who was recently defeated for NO mayor for example) have exploited the "democrats"/"human debris" as they were taught by their fathers/grandfathers to their personal advantage.

I'm a little too close to George Dickel right now to get into great detail but these folks have used levee board jobs for politics and run the entire area with the single focus of staying in power. Nagin was re-elected simply because he was the lesser of two evils by those who were left after the "democrats"/human debris evacuated.
 
Glenn, I think you are raising a VERY valid point about the political corruption. I have business associates in N.O. and cannot even believe the stories they tell me, but yet I know they are true. The political corruption is legendary. But you'd have to admit that is a different issue than the one I raised about the criminals of N.O. being exported to other cities???
 
"I'm a little too close to George Dickel right now"

I'll admit to almost anything.

It's possible that the democrats who left N.O. after the storm caused these increases in crime where they landed. The sherriff in our parish has been very vocal about the same thing, but it seems to me that it's an "excuse" put out for public consumption to cover increases in crime. Who knows? I surely don't. I've got to fix another drink.
 
Top