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Rep Chip Roy: - Why Trump's "1 big beautiful bill" is currently Dead

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
My interpretations of what he says:
  • There are tax cuts, which raise debt.
  • There are not really any spending cuts, so really no saving any money.
  • The debt will continue to climb.
  • Washington is broken and nobody wants to actually fix the system.
  • We borrow money to pay our debt.
  • Blue state GOP members and RINOs are demanding expensive stuff.
  • Not enough members actually have balls, they are in their wive's purses.

About 3 1/2 minutes of truth telling.

 
For anyone who is serious bout the real financial issues facing this country, which the GOP is not even dealing with, ignoring or generally avoiding this is a good video, with some more truth bombs, and charts.

GOP members serious about the national debt are opposing the current "ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL" because the RINOS are dead wrong and spineless.


 
Left leaning POLITICO is suggesting (could this be some sort of cheerleading) that now that President Trump is back from the Middle East, the One Big Beautiful Deal could be saved?

This is actually good reporting/analysis by Politico.



House Republicans Need Their Closer. Good Thing He’s Back.

After a five-day, eight-time-zone hiatus from Capitol Hill drama, Trump has to salvage his sputtering megabill.

President Donald Trump tours the Eminence Ahmed El-Tayeb Mosque at the Abrahamic Family House, Friday, May 16, 2025, in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
“You think the president likes being the president and the speaker’s babysitter?” as Ohio Rep. Max Miller, a former Trump aide, told NOTUS amid last month’s budget haggling.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said as much in a stern statement issued shortly after the failed budget vote, betraying little patience for the antics from the handful of hard-right holdouts: “The White House expects ALL Republicans to vote for this bill and successfully pass it through Committee in the near future.”
To be fair to Johnson, he’s dealing with a historically small House majority and a staggeringly complex piece of legislation. Just about any time he tries to assuage conservatives who are ideologically closer to the House GOP’s center of gravity, he repels moderates who gave Republicans their majority, and vice versa. Furthermore, presidents have always served as dealmakers of last resort in any tricky Hill negotiation
. . .
Instead, the showdown that was expected next week, with Trump back in town, played out as the president was wrapping up his Middle East tour. To many Republicans’ chagrin, Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) pressed forward with the failed vote Friday in spite of the obvious opposition, believing it would be best to put the holdouts on the record.
One senior Republican official expressed frustration that the episode not only made the conservatives look bad for blocking the bill, but also Trump and Johnson for suggesting they don’t have control over the process.
Friday’s budget-panel implosion was, in some ways, months in the making. As I wrote in January, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and fellow fiscal hawks have been on a collision course with a president who cares more about notching wins than curbing deficits. While hard-liners view the megabill as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to reduce spending, Trump sees it as a vehicle to deliver on his campaign promises — including tax cuts and money for the Pentagon and immigration enforcement — ahead of a midterm cycle he’s increasingly obsessed with.
 
Mush found millions / billions of dollars being wasted / stolen. Didn't that help our national debt in some way. I don't see how or where that is calculated in. What am I missing?

Basically no it did not.

That was already allocated by congress. Stopping that is difficult. Elon Musk exposed the problem. Congress needs to act to stop the problem. But congress has NOT yet stopped it.

This is where the rubber meets the road.

So far the GOP has totally failed to claw back most of that money.
So far the GOP has totally failed to codify the Executive Orders into actual law.
So far the GOP has failed to cut any spending in a meaningful way.

Unless the GOP actually codifies into law, the orders and actions that President Trump, Sec of State Marco Rubio, Sec of Defense Pete Hegseth, et al, have done, then all of this is wasted energy. All of it.
 
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So it looks like new government, same as the old government, when it comes to BIG GOVERNMENT SPENDING.

PRE-Covid the government budget was spending roughly $4.5 TRILLION per year.

During BIDEN that grew to roughly $7 TRILLION per year.

Under Trump is will remain roughly $7 TRILLION per year.

Where is the shrink? What about 'waste. fraud & abuse' cuts? Department elimination savings?

The main focus was to lock in, as permanent, the existing 'tax cuts', which were instituted under Trump's first term. At least that was accomplished.



House Republicans advance Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ in rare Sunday night vote

Speaker Mike Johnson met with fellow lawmakers shortly before the vote, and said he agreed to “some minor modifications. Not a huge thing.”

Republicans on the House Budget Committee voted in a rare Sunday night session to advance President Donald Trump‘s “big, beautiful bill” encapsulating his legislative agenda after deficit hawks relented, clearing the way for a possible floor vote later this week.
...​
Johnson said the bill making Trump‘s 2017 tax cuts permanent and reforming Medicaid is now “on track" for a House floor vote toward the end of this week.
The vote marked a sudden turnaround after three days of drama when fiscal hawks like Rep. Chip Roy of Texas and Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina voted against the bill on Friday because of concerns it did not cut spending deep enough or repeal more of former President Joe Biden‘s Inflation Reduction Act spending.
 
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Tax cuts allow people to keep more OF THEIR OWN MONEY to spend on things they need to live on.
Tax cuts do not always help retired people so making SS tax free helps them keep more OF THEIR OWN MONEY to spend on silly things they need to live on.

Fuck Chip Roy, the RINO bastard who becomes a multi millionaire by virtue of becoming a congressman from some obscure district with free cadillac health care and all the perks of being congressional douche bag.

We balance the budget by bring in hundreds of thousands of high paying manufacturing jobs with a fair tax system. Not stealing the money from waiters and waitresses, the elderly and low income people.

Fuck Chip Roy and the horse he rode in on. Trump is working his ass off trying to bring more investment back into the USA, hence more money, more jobs and a better life for all of us and this worthless asshole is just in the way.
 
Tax cuts allow people to keep more OF THEIR OWN MONEY to spend on things they need to live on.
Tax cuts do not always help retired people so making SS tax free helps them keep more OF THEIR OWN MONEY to spend on silly things they need to live on.

Fuck Chip Roy, the RINO bastard who becomes a multi millionaire by virtue of becoming a congressman from some obscure district with free cadillac health care and all the perks of being congressional douche bag.

We balance the budget by bring in hundreds of thousands of high paying manufacturing jobs with a fair tax system. Not stealing the money from waiters and waitresses, the elderly and low income people.

Fuck Chip Roy and the horse he rode in on. Trump is working his ass off trying to bring more investment back into the USA, hence more money, more jobs and a better life for all of us and this worthless asshole is just in the way.


I have zero sympathy for anyone of the congress critters on either side of the aisle, but the Chip Roy, is no RINO. He is one of the few fiscal conservatives.

Again, the annual budget pre-covid was $4.5 Trillion. Biden bumped it to $7 Trillion. The current Trump budget remains $7 Trillion. Chip Roy, and a small group of others, are calling out the actual RINOs for NOT CUTTING the spending.
 
We damn well better hope that the negotiations that Chip Roy & the real fiscal conservatives win against the RINO bullshit if we want to save our children from fiscal calamity. Heck, it may even hit our generation if the Republicans can't figure out how to cut spending.

I believe that Trump may be unleashing huge potential GROWTH but we still need to cut spending. Period. We need to eliminate government bloat. We need to eliminate entire federal departments and agencies. We need to cut the federal workforce by tens of thousands of people.

YES there is some good happening. Rolling back regulations to unleash potential. But still too much spending.

And this from the Wall Street Journal:


WASHINGTON—House Republicans’ last-minute grappling over the details of President Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax-and-spending bill has them colliding with a stark reality: The plan won’t reduce federal budget deficits and would make America’s fiscal hole deeper.
The current proposal would increase projected budget deficits by nearly $3 trillion through 2034, locking in tax cuts and spending increases that outweigh reductions in spending on Medicaid and nutrition assistance. While Republicans, who have vowed to reduce red ink, say higher economic growth will fill the gap, budget analysts across the political spectrum have panned the Republican plan, warning that it worsens the U.S. fiscal picture.
. . .
“While Republicans were campaigning on reducing spending and controlling the growth in the debt, once they put pen to paper, their real priorities demonstrate that they care a lot more about cutting taxes,”
 
Tax cuts allow people to keep more OF THEIR OWN MONEY to spend on things they need to live on.
Tax cuts do not always help retired people so making SS tax free helps them keep more OF THEIR OWN MONEY to spend on silly things they need to live on.

Fuck Chip Roy, the RINO bastard who becomes a multi millionaire by virtue of becoming a congressman from some obscure district with free cadillac health care and all the perks of being congressional douche bag.

We balance the budget by bring in hundreds of thousands of high paying manufacturing jobs with a fair tax system. Not stealing the money from waiters and waitresses, the elderly and low income people.

Fuck Chip Roy and the horse he rode in on. Trump is working his ass off trying to bring more investment back into the USA, hence more money, more jobs and a better life for all of us and this worthless asshole is just in the way.
Well said.
 
Well said.

Thank you.

The thing is we could all debate all day on who is a RINO and who is not, but the fact of the matter is DJT got a tremendous mandate from the American people to CUT TAXES and fix the border among other things. Even the stupid Dumbs stole some of his tax cutting proposals in a half assed attempt at stealing votes with bullshit.

The Republicans better get in line and pass this damn bill and give Trump what he promised, campaigned on and won by a mandate on.

Without Trump and depending on the congressional Republicans to look out for the American people we would all be fucked.
 
And CUT SPENDING
And SHRINK GOVERNMENT
And ELIMINATE FRAUD

All that we get is we maintain the tax cuts we already have and we maintain the spending, fraud, bloat and abuse.
 
This seems to be a reasonably sane estimation of the problem we all face, but I'm unsure why the GOP won't face these facts.

DOGE excited everyone but the politicians who need to implement cuts. Waste and abuse was proven. RINOs won't shrink the budgets to starve these programs or agencies. WTF? Meanwhile we are (still) heading for serious calamity.




How Long Until the U.S.'s Spending Issues Lead to a Debt Crisis?

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist
On Friday after the market’s close, Moody’s downgraded the U.S.’s credit rating from AAA to Aa1. While the timing of this announcement is suspect (where was Moody’s during the last four years when the U.S. added nearly $10 trillion in debt?) it’s still a BIG deal for investors.
Why did Moody’s do this?
The credit rating agency notes the U.S. is on an unsustainable trajectory as far as spending and debt is concerned. Moody’s expects the U.S.’s deficits to hit 9% by 2035 while its Debt to GDP ratio will hit 134%. At that point the country’s debt levels would be more akin to an emerging market than the global leader of the world. . .
The reality is the U.S. is heading towards a debt crisis.
As exciting as the Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) various announcements about cutting waste are, the reality is that all of its cuts amount to very little in the grand scheme of things. And for all the Trump administration’s talk of balanced budgets, the current spending bill it is proposing will ADD to the debt, not shrink it.
The U.S. has $36 trillion in debt and is currently running a deficit of $1.5 trillion per fiscal year. Moreover, the deficit is UP, not down for the first five months of fiscal year 2025. And not by a little: deficit spending rose by $318 billion or 38% during the first five months of 2025.
Regardless of who was/ is President while this is happening, and regardless of his agenda, the math simply no longer adds up. Unless the U.S. makes MASSIVE cuts to its largest spending items (entitlements, social spending), there is no way on earth the budget gets balanced.
The issue with this is that even suggesting any cuts to entitlements/ spending is political suicide. For decades the U.S. political class has “bought” votes by promising to spend money on various social issues. Roughly one third of American households receive some kind of government assistance/ entitlement spending.
Good luck cutting that while staying in office.
So, what does this mean for investors?
A debt crisis is coming. It won’t be in the next week or month, but it’s coming. And when it hits, the only way out of the mess is for the Fed and Federal government to “inflate” away the debt: a default would trigger a systemic collapse of the financial system.
This is as close to a “sure thing” as you can get in investing: the $USD will be devalued aggressively as the Fed is forced to print money and use it to buy U.S. debt. The dollar has lost a third of its purchasing power since the Fed began large-scale Quantitative Easing (QE) programs in 2007. It’s only going to get worse from here.
This is why gold is erupting higher, breaking out against every major world currency.
And over at CNBC we have Ray Dalio sounding all sorts of alarm bells and saying that MOODY'S is being too conservative. But still the damn RINOS in the GOP just want to keep up the spending, but sure, also keep the original Trump Tax Cuts too. They are only willing to deliver about 25% of what we all voted for.

The "MAGA mandate" is do actually fix America.


Seems like the politicians don't have the guts to do the job.



FULL STORY AT LINK ABOVE ^^^

Ray Dalio says the risk to U.S. Treasurys is even greater than what Moody’s is saying

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates LP, speaks during the Greenwich Economic Forum in Greenwich, Connecticut, US, on Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2023. The conference gathers leaders of the global alternative investment industry. Photographer: Joe Buglewicz/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Bridgewater Associates founder and billionaire Ray Dalio warned Monday that Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating understates the threat to U.S. Treasurys, saying the credit agency isn’t taking into account the risk of the federal government simply printing money to pay its debt.
“You should know that credit ratings understate credit risks because they only rate the risk of the government not paying its debt,” Dalio said in a post on social media platform X.
“They don’t include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts thus causing holders of the bonds to suffer losses from the decreased value of the money they’re getting (rather than from the decreased quantity of money they’re getting),” the Bridgewater founder said.
Moody’s on Friday cut the U.S. credit rating one notch to Aa1 from Aaa, citing the federal government’s ballooning budget deficit and soaring interest payments on the debt. It was the last of the three major credit agencies to downgrade the U.S. from the highest possible rating. . . .
“Said differently, for those who care about the value of their money, the risks for U.S. government debt are greater than the rating agencies are conveying,” Dalio said.
 
It's insane to keep spending at a Biden level! Budget should be at least 1 trillion less this year, two the next, and the the next two. 9 trillion less in 4 years. It can be done

This is my thought too.

For crying out loud what the hell did we send these people to Washington to do?

Shut this crap down. CLAW back what can be clawed back, but we need to shut down the spending.
 
All sad but true, people need to stop voting for the ass holes, you lie and not try to fulfill a campaign promise. Your out, there should be a mechanism that could be used to recall them at any time. Just got elected and dont do what you said, recall immediately and there out. NEXT. You lie about your abilities or intentions , your fired immediately in the private sector, government should be the same.
 
I agree that we need to cut spending a whole lot more, but realistically speaking it's not going to happen overnight. A bill with less spending at this time would simply not pass. This bill that is now proposed is probably the best we can hope for at the moment, given the headwinds. The Dems want to raise spending much more than this bill does, so we might consider it a victory to pass it, because if they were in charge, we'd be looking at a much greater increase in spending. It takes time to get there, but the reasonable thing to do right now is pass the bill, and then we can continue working on cutting spending in the future while also raising revenue.
 
I agree that we need to cut spending a whole lot more, but realistically speaking it's not going to happen overnight. A bill with less spending at this time would simply not pass. This bill that is now proposed is probably the best we can hope for at the moment BECAUSE the elected GOP congress-critters are basically spineless RINO crap and want to spend money like drunken sailors!

I fixed your statement.

Realistically the GOP has enough members to pass the bill. In both the House & the Senate. But they don't have the votes because they are addicted to the SWAMP

The fact that they won't cut spending is proof they support the fraud, waste and abuse that helps them.

The fact that they won't cut spending is also proof they are chicken-shit scared of doing the right thing and push the MAGA mandate, which was a lot more than persevering the tax cuts that Trump got in place in his last term.

RINOs who are chicken-shit scared of doing what they were sent to Washington to do.

The author of the article below is a former senior advisor to both President Trump & VP Vance and, with nicer words, says the GOP RINOs are chicken-shits!
Chip Roy and the other fiscal hawks are correct to push for spending cuts.




Washington Republicans Need to Wake Up on Deficits

The clock is ticking on America’s debt crisis…



Will unserious Republicans in Washington risk the broad America First agenda, because they refuse to confront the realities of mathematics and deficits?
To put this issue into broader political context, first recognize that the early accomplishments of the Trump Administration have simply been astounding. Within only weeks, President Trump delivered on his signature promise, gaining effective law enforcement control of the US border, the foundational pillar of his triumphant campaign.
Then, his historic trip to the Middle East elevated the America First foreign policy vision of realism and restraint. President Trump reshapes American foreign policy, away from the failed DC Establishment approach of constant interventions and warfighting.
These landmark achievements, they arrive just four months into office.

As we rightly celebrate these wins for all Americans, we also confront the challenges of the economy Trump inherited from Biden. Across the land, palpable anxiety and financial stress are revealed in all credible national surveys. Bidenomics crushed the spirits -- and pocketbooks -- of working-class Americans…and they still suffer now.
For instance, my national survey in April found that by a -12% margin, Americans are now less confident on the economy since last November’s election, 40-52%. Among middle class Americans who earn $50,000-$75,000 annually, the numbers are much worse, with only 37% reporting they are more confident economically vs. 56% who say they are less confident since the election.
So, the economy poses serious risks for all Washington Republicans -- and this negative energy threatens to overwhelm the astounding early victories of the Trump White House.
Unfortunately, this harsh reality is almost totally ignored by Republican decision makers in the Beltway, who lack any sense of urgency. In fact, they now stumble along with Biden-like budget plans that will keep America on a sad trajectory toward a debt implosion.
Accordingly, Moody’s downgraded US debt, in a surprise move. The ratings agency explained that it can no longer view the US government as the highest possible credit rating:
“Over more than a decade, US federal debt has risen sharply due to continuous fiscal deficits….As deficits and debt have grown, and interest rates have risen, interest payments on government debt have increased markedly.”
Understandably, some Republicans in Washington have attacked Moody’s as biased, especially the firm’s virulently anti-Trump economist Mark Zandi. But for all of Moody’s flaws, it is not wrong in this particular. well-explained analysis.
For example, the firm correctly points out that, at current trends, Speaker Mike Johnson’s budget framework will lead to annual deficits at 9% of GDP by 2035, from 6.4% today…worlds away from the laudable 3% goal of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Here is a long-term 25-year chart view of total federal debt relative to GDP – note this calculus reflects the entire federal debt, not a one-year annual deficit:


Making matters worse, as spending grew out of control, interest rates shot higher under the misery of Bidenomics, making the costs of servicing the debt increasingly untenable. For example, as economist EJ Antoni of Heritage Foundation points out, right now debt services costs are the largest expenditure of the federal government, even more expensive than the Defense Department – and interest payments now consume an astounding 63% of all federal income taxes paid!
Moreover, bond markets respond unhappily to the current trend of budget negotiations on Capitol Hill. Here is a near-term chart Treasuries in recent weeks, once that legislative process intensified:


Regarding bonds, realize the historical power of fixed income markets. Bond traders have, for centuries, taken out as many governments and regimes as battleships.
Right now, the cantankerous US bond market prices-in continued, stubborn inflation ahead, undoubtedly in large part because of the incredible profligacy of Capitol Hill Republicans. See this chart of the “breakeven” which uses bond prices to reflect actual macro, real-money bets on inflation:


That chart is based on trillions of dollars of invested capital, mind you. It reflects mountains of real money, invested by the sharpest minds in finance, and not the opinion of some economist, opining from the faculty lounge of an ivory tower university.
Of course, these realities are conveyed by other key markets, as well. Crypto assets soar, as investors flee fiat currencies, including the US Dollar, in search of alternatives that can thrive in this volatile era. Similarly, the oldest “alternative” asset on earth – gold – it continues to catapult higher, an ominous overall sign:


Now for some good news. There are fixes, and realistic ones. I will detail them in a follow-up article.
But, the range of options constricts materially with each passing day, and the odds of a true all-out debt crisis creep higher every hour. As such, we cannot cater to a fantasy – we simply cannot afford to waste time pretending that this debt calamity will magically go away without aggressive reform and steely-eyed action.
Steve Cortes is president of the League of American Workers, a populist right pro-laborer advocacy group, and senior political advisor to Catholic Vote. He is a former senior advisor to President Trump and JD Vance, plus a former commentator for Fox News and CNN.
 
Another non-RINO, truth teller, who is actually trying to save the nation.

Representative Harris says the "One Big Beautiful Bill" is dead unless the RINOs cut some spending and he lays out how to cut "medicare" and reduce spending.

 
I fixed your statement.

Realistically the GOP has enough members to pass the bill. In both the House & the Senate. But they don't have the votes because they are addicted to the SWAMP

The fact that they won't cut spending is proof they support the fraud, waste and abuse that helps them.

The fact that they won't cut spending is also proof they are chicken-shit scared of doing the right thing and push the MAGA mandate, which was a lot more than persevering the tax cuts that Trump got in place in his last term.

RINOs who are chicken-shit scared of doing what they were sent to Washington to do.

The author of the article below is a former senior advisor to both President Trump & VP Vance and, with nicer words, says the GOP RINOs are chicken-shits!
Chip Roy and the other fiscal hawks are correct to push for spending cuts.
I couldn't agree more. What is happening is that the move away from what you label "RINOs," which today really describes the non-MAGA, non-populist Republicans, is not complete. There are still too many in congress who will not stand up and do the right thing by the people, which means massive spending cuts and a return to a leaner government.

However, that is not going to change right now. First, those RINOs must be voted out and replaced by MAGA Populists, who are really the future of the GOP. Until that happens, there either has to be compromise to some degree or nothing is going to get done, no bills are going to get passed, and the Dems will point to it as an example of Trump's failure and GOP chaos, which will give the DEMS big wins in the midterms, and we go backwards.
 
. . . the Dems will point to it as an example of Trump's failure and GOP chaos, which will give the DEMS big wins in the midterms, and we go backwards.

Democrats, to their credit, agree to unify.

GOP are fractured. They tend to fight with each other. Get nothing done.

Trump's mandates (and he had several) are at peril because of the spineless RINOs.

The MAGA mandates including DRAINING THE SWAMP, reducing regulations, 'all of the above energy' to lower costs, on-shoring jobs, tariffs and fair trade practices, closing the border, holding the line on taxes, cutting regulations . . . AND ALSO on reducing the spending, cutting programs and closing agencies.

We got lied to by the GOP.

What we got was holding the line on taxes and SOME, but not enough, cutting of regulations.

What happened to the hard liners? We need MORE of them and fewer RINOS.
 
Didn't Trump campaign on rolling back the "New Green Scam" and get that as part of his MAGA mandate?

Why won't the spineless RINOs cut these costly, economically damaging and pointless subsidies?




FULL STORY AT LINK ^^^



The House Energy and Commerce Committee’s portion of the policy megabill, where the IRA changes are located, would save $910 billion over the next decade by terminating five credits outright and phasing out more than a dozen others.
Four tax credits are related to alternative fuel vehicles and three credits are related to home energy efficiency or “clean” energy sourcing. Also, the clean hydrogen production credit would be terminated by 2026 under the bill as written.
Fiscal hawks are less enthusiastic about the slow phaseouts of other subsidies since pushing the end dates past the end of the Trump administration risks another administration reversing course.
The bill keeps the carbon oxide sequestration credit, set to expire under the IRA in 2044, for facilities built by 2032. It also keeps the advanced manufacturing production credit, nuclear production credit, and geothermal heat pump credit until 2032, as well as the clean electricity production and investment credits.
The legislation even extends the clean fuel production credit to 2032, four years longer than the IRA allows for.
All total, the partial repeal of the IRA would save $515 billion over the next decade. But given the enormous cost of permanently extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act — the main end of the filibuster-proof budget reconciliation bill — some Republicans are calling for a complete and immediate repeal.
 
Just to be very clear, if the bill fails, it fails because of the blue "SALT" state RINOs and their insistence on helping California Gov Newsom, Illinois Gov Pritzker, NY Gov Hochul and a couple other blue state governors who have jacked up property taxes in those states. They are demanding that their state residents get huge tax credits on property tax bills.

The real fiscal conservative GOP members, like Chip Roy and Thomas Massie are being villainized in most of the media.








FULL STORY AT LINK ^^^

Trump appears to be losing patience with blue-state Republicans on SALT

The president stresses that the state and local tax deduction mostly benefits Democratic states as SALT Republicans hold out for an increase in the break.
Benjamin Guggenheim

05/20/2025, 10:03AM ET
President Donald Trump took a surprising swipe Tuesday at efforts to increase a key tax deduction — underscoring that the main beneficiaries would be Democratic “governors from New York, Illinois and California.”
. . .
“Well SALT is a very interesting thing. The big JB is going nowhere, probably right now, he could be the worst governor in the country, but Illinois and Gavin ‘Newscum,’ those are the people that want this, and they’re Democrat states,” Trump told reporters at the Capitol, referring to Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and using a pejorative for California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
 
Just to be very clear, if the bill fails, it fails because of the blue "SALT" state RINOs and their insistence on helping California Gov Newsom, Illinois Gov Pritzker, NY Gov Hochul and a couple other blue state governors who have jacked up property taxes in those states. They are demanding that their state residents get huge tax credits on property tax bills.

The real fiscal conservative GOP members, like Chip Roy and Thomas Massie are being villainized in most of the media.
While I agree that the SALT crowd is part of the problem, to be fair there are four basic holdout groups of Republicans that the Speaker is currently trying to appease, at least to some degree, in order to gain enough votes for the bill to pass the House.

Currently, there are 220 Republicans and 213 Democrats in the House of Representatives, for a total of 433 (two spots are vacant). That means 217 is required to pass the bill, which means Republicans can only lose three votes, unless some Dems vote for hit, which is highly unlikely.

Of the GOP holdouts, there are 6 SALT deduction members who want MORE spending than the current draft bill allows via increased federal deductions on their blue state taxes. Second, there are 31 of what I'd call Deficit Hawks (such as Chip Roy) who want LESS spending than the current bill allows. So, already you have to compromise somehow between these first two polar opposite groups so as not to lose more than three for them. Then, the third group of holdouts are the 14 Republicans who want to preserve some of Biden's Inflation Reduction Act that benefits their districts somehow (so, they want MORE spending as well). Finally, you have 12 Republicans from blue states who also want MORE spending on government entitlements like Medicare.

In sum, there are at total of 31 Republicans who want LESS spending, and 32 who want MORE spending. If you change the bill to cave to the LESS spending/Chip Roy crowd, then you likely lose most, if not all, of the other 32 of those who want MORE spending for different reasons crows, and vice versa, and the bill fails.

Thus, the only way to pass the bill in the House is to compromise between these groups so that they all get some, but not all, of what they want, so that no more than three of them decide to vote no. That is no easy task. I don't envy Mike Johnson's job.

And then, if it passes, it goes to the Senate, where similar disagreements await.
 
While I agree that the SALT crowd is part of the problem, to be fair there are four basic holdout groups of Republicans that the Speaker is currently trying to appease, at least to some degree, in order to gain enough votes for the bill to pass the House.

Currently, there are 220 Republicans and 213 Democrats in the House of Representatives, for a total of 433 (two spots are vacant). That means 217 is required to pass the bill, which means Republicans can only lose three votes, unless some Dems vote for hit, which is highly unlikely.

Of the GOP holdouts, there are 6 SALT deduction members who want MORE spending than the current draft bill allows via increased federal deductions on their blue state taxes. Second, there are 31 of what I'd call Deficit Hawks (such as Chip Roy) who want LESS spending than the current bill allows. So, already you have to compromise somehow between these first two polar opposite groups so as not to lose more than three for them. Then, the third group of holdouts are the 14 Republicans who want to preserve some of Biden's Inflation Reduction Act that benefits their districts somehow (so, they want MORE spending as well). Finally, you have 12 Republicans from blue states who also want MORE spending on government entitlements like Medicare.

In sum, there are at total of 31 Republicans who want LESS spending, and 32 who want MORE spending. If you change the bill to cave to the LESS spending/Chip Roy crowd, then you likely lose most, if not all, of the other 32 of those who want MORE spending for different reasons crows, and vice versa, and the bill fails.

Thus, the only way to pass the bill in the House is to compromise between these groups so that they all get some, but not all, of what they want, so that no more than three of them decide to vote no. That is no easy task. I don't envy Mike Johnson's job.

And then, if it passes, it goes to the Senate, where similar disagreements await.

Not a bad analysis but you say there are 31 who want LESS SPENDING.

The American people put Trump into the Oval Office with the promise of shrinking government, cutting spending, taxes, regulations and waste.

So there are really 31 fiscal hawks who are doing the job of the 220. The rest want some combination of more spending, special carve outs for their districts, or, at a minimum, a partial continuation of the swamp.

Just really want to show how many f****ng RINOs are in the GOP.
 
Well the bill got worse overnight.

SALT state reps got a huge benefit, as their swamp bonus, which drives up the DEBT even higher. Now it looks like the entire "Freedom Caucus" may revolt in opposition to the bill because this bill front loads debt and makes most of the spending cuts AFTER President Trump leaves office in 3.75 years.
It is pretty hard to call the Freedom Caucus members RINOs.

But this one big beautiful bill is becoming a behemoth of bloat and fraud.


GOP hard-liners threatening Revolt

“That SALT cap increase, I think, upset a lot of conservatives,” said Rep. Andy Harris, the Freedom Caucus chair.
05/21/2025, 9:47AM ET
House Speaker Mike Johnson is facing a last-minute rebellion from conservatives on Republicans’ megabill, with a deal on a key tax deduction with blue-state Republicans and a lack of progress on settling other key provisions frustrating hard-liners.
I think actually we’re further away from a deal because that SALT cap increase, I think, upset a lot of conservatives,” Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), the House Freedom Caucus chair, said in an interview on Newsmax on Wednesday morning, referring to the state-and-local-tax deduction. “The conservatives are pushing for some balancing spending reductions.”
 
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And now the "hard liners" are set to meet with President Trump and Speaker Johnson today.

Get ready for the squeeze.

The Hard Liners are actually the House Freedom Caucus. The freakin Freedom Caucus is the group that has long been the true GOP, the backbone of the MAGA ideology. Now they are the enemy because they have a spine.

I'm suspecting that the taxpayers will take it in the end. Lots of promised spending cuts will not happen. Lots of swamp BS will happen. The Blue State RINOS and their sympathizers will get their carve outs. More of the same.

I hope that President Trump ultimately sees the light. We didn't vote for this.




GOP leaders prepare to squeeze Hard Liner Holdouts

Speaker Mike Johnson and White House officials are prepping for a Wednesday megabill showdown.
05/21/2025, 12:50PM ET
House Speaker Mike Johnson, with backing from the White House, is making plans to muscle through the GOP’s domestic-policy megabill Wednesday, with top Republicans seeking to quickly quash a last-minute rebellion from conservative hard-liners.
The plans for a quick vote were described by three senior Republicans involved in the closely held negotiations who were granted anonymity to discuss them. They have developed amid rising frustrations on the hard right over a key tax deduction sought by blue-state Republicans and what they consider to be a walk-back of an agreement overnight on other concessions they have been seeking. . . .
 
Not a bad analysis but you say there are 31 who want LESS SPENDING.

The American people put Trump into the Oval Office with the promise of shrinking government, cutting spending, taxes, regulations and waste.

So there are really 31 fiscal hawks who are doing the job of the 220. The rest want some combination of more spending, special carve outs for their districts, or, at a minimum, a partial continuation of the swamp.

Just really want to show how many f****ng RINOs are in the GOP.
And that's why the People need to wake up and vote in more MAGA types who will actually vote to shrink the budget, but in the meantime we have to deal with what we have, or else nothing happens.
 
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And that's why the People need to wake up and vote in more MAGA types who will actually vote to shrink the budget, but in the meantime we have to deal with what we have, or else nothing happens.

So we have to literally add $5 TRILLION to our debt and go bankrupt before we can vote in more people who will cut spending?
 
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