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Is now the time to jump OUT of the stock market?

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
About a month ago I asked if it was the right time to get into the market. I got in with some speculative plays and made myself a tidy little sum :clap: but now I'm starting to see some signs that I really don't like. My investments are pretty diversified, I've got some long haulers for bear markets, some dividend plays that seem to pay out in good and bad times despite the fact that the stock price itself doesn't do much. But are companies that have had big run ups like Monsanto simply overplayed? They may have more room to grow, I'm not trying to call a "top" but I do have to wonder if maybe some of the gains of the past month are not going to be wiped out over the upcoming short term.

Thoughts?

Are you cashing in some of your high flyers or sticking with them (or some of each)?

I'm starting to sell and re-trench. The high flyers are the first one's I'm going to dump. I've made a good buck, I'm pulling out of some and looking for safer havens. Next on my list is the previously mentioned Monsanto, I sold a nice chunk at $131 early last week. Looking to let another 500 shares go at $129.50 and another block go if it reaches $130.50. Honestly it would not surprise me if the stock goes up to $135, $140 or even $150+. But I think its going to run out of steam and pull back VERY HARD at some point. I got rid of Siemens for the very same reason, it was a great stock while I owned it, ran up very very nicely but I see that it will be losing steam over the long haul so I picked up my bat, my ball and my mitt and walked away from that one.

The thing that bothers me is that many of these stocks that I think are running out of steam are long haul holdings that have been rock solid. Now it seems they are some of the greatest risks to hold.

PS, I always wished we could figure out how to play a stock picking game here on the FORUMSFORUMS and never managed to come up with a way to do it. I know I'd have taken some major bruises, but also scored a few knockouts. I'm always looking to learn more (and bruise less). :bonk:
 

DaveNay

Klaatu barada nikto
SUPER Site Supporter
If you think Monsanto is going that high, but will fall then why not put a stop limit sell order at $135?
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
Because I am not sure it will get that high. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes up a bunch, but I'm not willing to bet on anything more than the normal fluctuations of a single day's movement. Just my comfort zone.
 

ddrane2115

Charter Member
SUPER Site Supporter
I wish I could get to my annuity from company number 1. at age 67.50 I will get 293.00 a month long as I live and Holly will get half that as long as she lives past me. Now if I had that NOW, the cash I would pay off debt, maybe out of debt totally. I would also like to have my 'stock' fund from company number 2, that stock is what they paid for, and when I left there I tried to get that...........even just move it. I found out I can 20% per year..............stupid bastards up there got ALL of theirs when they sold at 70.00 2 days before it took a dive. Now, usually that would not be an issue.........if you had say a million or so, but 20% of the value I have is NOTHING then, and would pay off some debt or be a nice investment now.


Basically I am screwed, but they dont know one thing I do. I learned when you retire you count on what you have in your mind, on your back and in your wallet..................their little bitty 'retirements' will be maybe my gas bill and phone bill..............if I even have a phone.

Oh and one more 'gripe' when you cash those in, remember your tax advisor will bill the crap out of you for more forms...........hr block got my last investment dollar this year, never again!
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
Must be pure luck, but my SELL order for Monsanto executed at $130.50. The stock went up to 130.89 and then dropped. Its obviously very early in the day and it could go back to the steady climb in values, but I'm glad to get out of it.

Funny thing too, there seems to be a lot of insiders selling Monsanto shares on peaks lately too.

So anyone else looking for 'defensive' stocks?
 

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Dargo

Like a bad penny...
GOLD Site Supporter
Hey, my $4.99 Ford is looking pretty good at nearly $8.50 a share today! Now is when I am ticked I only got 3000 at that price. :bonk:

Whoo hoo! Make that $8.79 a share right now! :eek:
 
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Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
Dargo, the market is doing some bizarre things. I've shifted a bunch out of speculative stocks to more sedate holdings, but one of my 'gambles' that I hung on to is up $6.98 per share today.
 

Dargo

Like a bad penny...
GOLD Site Supporter
Okay, I was worried a bit today. I sort of hedged my bet a bit and jumped out of half of my Ford stock at that $8.50 mark the other day. It plummeted the next day and I was concerned that I didn't sell it all at $8.50. Today it took off and I began to question my decision to sell half. Ford made a nice recovery today but didn't get back to $8.50.

So, what's the guesses? Should I have unloaded it all at $8.50 or did I make a mistake by unloading half at that price? Believe me, I'm no stock guru. :bonk:

BTW, when I unloaded half of the Ford stock I put most of my profits from that sale into Intel that day at $22.50. Further guesses on whether that deal was a mistake?

It's been a while since I've played the stock game at all. It's fun and games until somebody gets an eye poked out...
 

California

Charter Member
Site Supporter
... when I unloaded half of the Ford stock I put most of my profits from that sale into Intel that day at $22.50. Further guesses on whether that deal was a mistake?

It's been a while since I've played the stock game at all. It's fun and games until somebody gets an eye poked out...
Don't ask me. I sold my Intel at 30, what I paid for it. After it went up to 60 and right back down again. (early 2000). I've been in defensive stuff all through the Bush era since I can't make any sense of where we are headed.

But moving in and out that quick is more speculation than investment. Truly, I think the results are random, short term.
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
Dave there seems to be a new game in the market (well not actually new, but certainly taken to new levels) and that is to bid up prices up to the day that the earnings reports are released, then to dump the stock immediately after the reports (even if they are at/above the expectations)
 

REDDOGTWO

Unemployed Veg. Peddler
SUPER Site Supporter
Dave there seems to be a new game in the market (well not actually new, but certainly taken to new levels) and that is to bid up prices up to the day that the earnings reports are released, then to dump the stock immediately after the reports (even if they are at/above the expectations)

This has been happening for a long time, buy on the rumor, sell on the news.
 
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