US Senate 50/50 takeover may be slipping away from the G.O.P.

[Melensdad]

J.D.Vance, while still a slim favorite to take the OPEN U.S. Senate seat from Ohio was downgraded to a "toss up" from its prior status as "leaning GOP" as Vance is not electrifying the votes.

Georgia's Senate seat, currently held by new US Senator Warwick (D), who won a special election 2 years ago, is being challenged on the GOP side by legendary football player Hershel Walker. Walker has had several missteps while campaigning and is in a great position to take over the seat.

Senator Kelley, the Democrat in Arizona appears fairly weak, but so does the GOP candidate. Johnson in Wisconsin (GOP) is fighting for survival and is in a Toss Up race.

While the HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES will very likely flip, by a fairly wide margin, there is a real possibility that the SENATE may actually lose a GOP seat and the Democrats take it 51/49.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map.html

 

[300 H and H]

I don't give much credence to polls.
To many are simply looking for a way to scare the other side, looking for an advantage. Actually, they are one sided and have been
for as long as I can remember. Democrats seem to be always over sampled.

For the most part they are wrong, as we see on election day. For the most part Republicans always seem
to do better than any polling suggests.

Democrats love polls. It is because they are rigged.

 

[Doc]

In the Ohio Senate race J D Vance seems like a very weak Repub Candidate. Tim Ryan is a Dem but claiming to support Trump in some respects and seems to have a lot more momentum at this point.

 

[300 H and H]

In the Ohio Senate race J D Vance seems like a very weak Repub Candidate. Tim Ryan is a Dem but claiming to support Trump in some respects and seems to have a lot more momentum at this point.

Are the Dems out spending Vance? They hate Trump therefore they hate Vance.

My bet is they have targeted him. My bet is the polls don't tell the real story. Voters will decide, not the polls.

Polls showed Hillary crushing Trump the day before the elections.

Cheat lie steal riot loot burn. These people will stop at nothing to diminish Republican support.

 

[Melensdad]

In the Ohio Senate race J D Vance seems like a very weak Repub Candidate. Tim Ryan is a Dem but claiming to support Trump in some respects and seems to have a lot more momentum at this point.

Dr OZ in Pennsylvania appears to be a total train wreck of a candidate too.

 

[Doc]

Are the Dems out spending Vance? They hate Trump therefore they hate Vance.

My bet is they have targeted him. My bet is the polls don't tell the real story. Voters will decide, not the polls.

Polls showed Hillary crushing Trump the day before the elections.

Cheat lie steal riot loot burn. These people will stop at nothing to diminish Republican support.

Yes, outspending and totally trouncing JD. They are beating him like a rug. Every misstep he's made is shown over and over on TV ads. And TV ads galore for Ryan. I haven't seen much from JD and what I do see is lame. Sad.

 

[300 H and H]

Yes, outspending and totally trouncing JD. They are beating him like a rug. Every misstep he's made is shown over and over on TV ads. And TV ads galore for Ryan. I haven't seen much from JD and what I do see is lame. Sad.

The same thing happened in Iowa with Joni Ernst. She was out spent by 4 to one by the Dems. Polls showed it was close too.
She put her adds up long after the attack began. Timing is everything, and by the time she spent her money most people in Iowa
were sick and tired of her being attacked.

In the end Joni won going away by over 10 points after being beaten like a rug for months. Funny I don't even remember the name
of the Democrat they put up against her.

Iowa Dems thought they had it in the bag. Turned out their lies were, well just lies along with the polling. Their money and polling
were wasted time and money.

Fraudsters like numbers. This is exactly why the polls really don't matter.

 

[Melensdad]

"538 Project" uses sophisticated statistical modeling and has been historically very close to accurate in most elections.

2022 Senate Election Forecast

Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 Senate elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

They are showing that the Democrats have a SMALL advantage in the SENATE and will likely hold their 50-50 advantage or possibly pick up a seat or two.

While there will likely be a "shellacking" of the Democrats in the House, with a Bon Voyage party thrown for soon to be ousted capitol hill witch Nancy Pelosi, the outlook in the Senate is not nearly as rosy. The GOP, due to retirements and do to some weak candidates, is looking at a bleak outlook for retaking the Senate.

 

[chowderman]

it is worth considering that "polls" are not facts, just opinions, and data manipulation.
a very very very few "independent" polling companies have established reputation for doing the 'most honest job they can" - and their predictions are very very very slightly more accurate than 50%.

the loudestly shilled polls are usually the most biased - pollsters produce results the paying entity wants to see.
pollsters that do not produce the results the paying entity wants to see are not utilized, next time.

just take a sec to recall, it was "Hillary by a landslide!"
and if that's too recent:
"Dewey Defeats Truman!!!"

 

[Melensdad]

it is worth considering that "polls" are not facts, just opinions, and data manipulation.
a very very very few "independent" polling companies have established reputation for doing the 'most honest job they can" - and their predictions are very very very slightly more accurate than 50%.

Actually Rasmussen has been historically very accurate, probably one of the most accurate, over the past 15+ years and they are likely in the 85+% range for their accuracy. There are others that are also good.

The polls to be very wary of are the news channel polls. Those are typically very biased and inaccurate.

But as for the data manipulation point, that is very true. Which is one of the reasons that when you look at polling data (from any source) you need to look at their sample size, their sample breakdown, and the actual questions. There is a science to it, and to detecting bias too.

 

[chowderman]

"... the actual questions."

aka "Have you stopped beating your wife?"

 

[Melensdad]

"... the actual questions."

aka "Have you stopped beating your wife?"

Funny but inaccurate

And now how polling questions are structured.

As someone who actually studied and did polling, there is definitely a bias in many and some polling companies are pretty much crap, but you can look at their samples and sample sizes very easily, almost all polls publish their data, along with their questions. It only takes a few minutes to see which way the bias is running and what to expect from the data.

 

[tommu56]

I don't give much credence to polls.
To many are simply looking for a way to scare the other side, looking for an advantage. Actually, they are one sided and have been
for as long as I can remember. Democrats seem to be always over sampled.

For the most part they are wrong, as we see on election day. For the most part Republicans always seem
to do better than any polling suggests.

Democrats love polls. It is because they are rigged.

I agree I've never been polled in my 60+ years so haw can it be random and un biased??????

 

[tommu56]

Dr OZ in Pennsylvania appears to be a total train wreck of a candidate too.

As a Pennsylvanian he is the better of the tribe running for that seat
Fitzpatrick is the issue for me in district 1 ( not mine) I'm worried he is a RINO
Governor I'm hoping for Doug Mastriano Shapiro is as bad or worse than Wolf in my opinion

 

[chowderman]

Funny but inaccurate

And now how polling questions are structured.

As someone who actually studied and did polling, there is definitely a bias in many and some polling companies are pretty much crap, but you can look at their samples and sample sizes very easily, almost all polls publish their data, along with their questions. It only takes a few minutes to see which way the bias is running and what to expect from the data.

it's not "inaccurate" in the least.
as you said, polling companies can easily construct questions to ensure the answers can be "interpreted as desired"
it is a science.

they ask questions so that no answer cannot be re-managed / dataified into the desired outcome.
if you answer no to "have you stopped beating your wife" - implies admission that you still beat your wife.
if you answer yes to "have you stopped beating your wife" - implies admission that you previously beat your wife.
hence any Y/N answer to the question is clear evidence to smear a candidate as "beating his wife"

"they" may publish the data and questions, but the mass media does not mention whether
"have you stopped beating your wife?" is a positive or negative influence on their "conclusions"

 

[300 H and H]

Polls will become more accurate perhaps by the 1st of October.

In August it is simply a liar's game.

 

[Melensdad]

it's not "inaccurate" in the least.
as you said, polling companies can easily construct questions to ensure the answers can be "interpreted as desired"
it is a science.

they ask questions so that no answer cannot be re-managed / dataified into the desired outcome.
if you answer no to "have you stopped beating your wife" - implies admission that you still beat your wife.
if you answer yes to "have you stopped beating your wife" - implies admission that you previously beat your wife.
hence any Y/N answer to the question is clear evidence to smear a candidate as "beating his wife"

"they" may publish the data and questions, but the mass media does not mention whether
"have you stopped beating your wife?" is a positive or negative influence on their "conclusions"

Not to argue with you but that is not how the questions are phrased, further the questions are typically asked several times, in different ways, just to insure the responder is answering consistently. So yes, I stand by my statement that your statement was/is and remains inaccurate.

 

[chowderman]

if you're talking about "honest" polling, true.
but as you have indicated, there's very few honest polling organizations.
the rest have an axe to grind, or a patron to satisfy, and they with full intent skew the questions.

 

[Melensdad]

And more statistical analysis from 538 Project. It says the Democrats have a 61% chance of maintaining the majority. Interesting analysis from a company that has a liberal bias but tends to be very very accurate in their projections. Of course things can clearly change between now and the election. But the abortion ruling by the SCOTUS and several state legislatures taking a very hard line on abortion seem to have helped change the tide to help the liberals.

While the Senate races seem to be a challenge for the GOP, it looks like the House is a lock for a GOP takeover and kicking Pelosi to the curb.

2022 Senate Election Forecast

Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 Senate elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[300 H and H]

Next week it will show the opposite after the FBI raid on Trump.
If it doesn't it is just another fake poll.

Republicans and many independents as well as few Democrats are pissed off by this action
taken by the FBI.

This is just as big a deal as SCOTUS and Roe.

 

[Melensdad]

Next week it will show the opposite after the FBI raid on Trump.
If it doesn't it is just another fake poll.

Republicans and many independents as well as few Democrats are pissed off by this action
taken by the FBI.

This is just as big a deal as SCOTUS and Roe.

From what I can see there is about a 50/50 split on OUTRAGE and SUPPORT for the raid on Mar-a Lago

It will be interesting to see if the raid hurts the Democrats or helps them. I suspect it will ultimately bite them in the butt over the long term if nothing was found, or if they find that Trump did nothing wrong. But currently it seems like it was a risk worth taking. Garland is clearly weaponizing the Justice Dept.

Democrats obviously loved the action.
GOP is outraged.
The independent voters seem to be pretty split on the issue.

FWIW, 538's analysis is not a poll.

I think in the LONG RUN, 3+ months from now, if nothing is found of substance, then the majority of the public will turn against the raid.

 

[m1west]

From what I can see there is about a 50/50 split on OUTRAGE and SUPPORT for the raid on Mar-a Lago

It will be interesting to see if the raid hurts the Democrats or helps them. I suspect it will ultimately bite them in the butt over the long term if nothing was found, or if they find that Trump did nothing wrong. But currently it seems like it was a risk worth taking. Garland is clearly weaponizing the Justice Dept.

Democrats obviously loved the action.
GOP is outraged.
The independent voters seem to be pretty split on the issue.

FWIW, 538's analysis is not a poll.

I think in the LONG RUN, 3+ months from now, if nothing is found of substance, then the majority of the public will turn against the raid.

Not sure anyone's attention span is that long anymore

 

[Melensdad]

Looks like OZ is surging in Pennsylvania as the true health status of FETTERMAN is coming out.

Fetterman Doctor Controversy as Oz Surges in Pennsylvania - The American Spectator | USA News and PoliticsThe American Spectator | USA News and Politics

Newsmax reports that the doctor who cleared Fetterman is a donor to his campaign and has donated to Raphael Warnock and Val Demings.

spectator.org

 

[Melensdad]

Ohio has been moved into the LIKELY GOP slot, it had slipped into the TOSS UP category but looks to be moving for the GOP, Vance verbally destroyed Ryan in a debate, but he was already gaining momentum prior to the debate.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/oh/ohio_senate_vance_vs_ryan-7624.html

 

[Melensdad]

Polling data has shifted and is trending toward the GOP in a couple more senate races.

Nevada's sitting Democratic Senator is considered to be very weak, but as a hispanic she had a lot of hispanic support, until this year. Hispanic voters have been shifting strongly away from the Democratic party. Looks like Laxalt has a slight edge at kicking sitting Senator Cortez-Masto to the un-employment line and picking up a GOP seat.

GOP challenger Kari Lake is building support quickly in Arizona and is in position to knock Democratic sitting Senator Mark Kelly out of office.

If the trending numbers continue for the next few weeks, it seems very possible that the GOP could have 51 to 53 seats in the Senate. Retaining a 50-50 split still seems plausible. Dropping seats and only having 49 seems, now, very very unlikely.

 

[tommu56]

Looks like OZ is surging in Pennsylvania as the true health status of FETTERMAN is coming out.

Fetterman Doctor Controversy as Oz Surges in Pennsylvania - The American Spectator | USA News and PoliticsThe American Spectator | USA News and Politics

Newsmax reports that the doctor who cleared Fetterman is a donor to his campaign and has donated to Raphael Warnock and Val Demings.

spectator.org

It doesn't help JB was up campaigning for him and when Joe was adressing the crowd.
President Biden on Thursday said John Fetterman's wife Gisele would make a "great lady in the Senate" in an awkward stumble amid questions ...

 

[tiredretired]

Oz will debate the Lump Neck monster on Tuesday.

In the meantime, remember in 2020, all those ballots that came in from NYC, are still in some warehouse in Philly PA, just saying...

 

[Melensdad]

Oz will debate the Lump Neck monster on Tuesday.

In the meantime, remember in 2020, all those ballots that came in from NYC, are still in some warehouse in Philly PA, just saying...

Anyone watch the videos???

WOW, the only hope Fetterman has is if the early "mail in ballots" turn out BIG in his favor. Literally nobody who saw that debate could, with an honest heart and a clear mind, vote for him.

------------------------------------

Meanwhile, the folks at the REAL CLEAR website are projecting 53 seats for the GOP and 47 for the Democrats. They use accumulated polling data and then they "adjust" the data for historical liberal bias.

Here are the results:



You will notice they have Fetterman up 1.3 points in the polling data, but when they adjust it for the liberal bias they show that seat staying with the GOP. Arizona and Georgia both also show up with Kelly +1.5 and Warnock +0.5 for the Democrats but in the adjusted totals those 3 seats end up flipping from Democrats to the GOP side of the aisle. Laxalt, the GOP challenger in Nevada, looks to also be gaining over the Democratic incumbent and is projected to take that seat away from the Democrats.

JD Vance in Ohio is now considered to be taking that seat, originally it was a contested seat. Incumbent Ron Johnson, considered the weakest GOP Senator in this election cycle, looks like he will hold his seat from Wisconsin for the GOP.

 

[tommu56]

Anyone watch the videos???

WOW, the only hope Fetterman has is if the early "mail in ballots" turn out BIG in his favor. Literally nobody who saw that debate could, with an honest heart and a clear mind, vote for him.

------------------------------------

Meanwhile, the folks at the REAL CLEAR website are projecting 53 seats for the GOP and 47 for the Democrats. They use accumulated polling data and then they "adjust" the data for historical liberal bias.

Here are the results:

View attachment 156585

You will notice they have Fetterman up 1.3 points in the polling data, but when they adjust it for the liberal bias they show that seat staying with the GOP. Arizona and Georgia both also show up with Kelly +1.5 and Warnock +0.5 for the Democrats but in the adjusted totals those 3 seats end up flipping from Democrats to the GOP side of the aisle. Laxalt, the GOP challenger in Nevada, looks to also be gaining over the Democratic incumbent and is projected to take that seat away from the Democrats.

JD Vance in Ohio is now considered to be taking that seat, originally it was a contested seat. Incumbent Ron Johnson, considered the weakest GOP Senator in this election cycle, looks like he will hold his seat from Wisconsin for the GOP.

Yes I watched Fetterman dig himself a bigger hole yesterday.
Its a who's worse Fetterman or OZ defiantly Fetterman is not getting my vote!
OZ could turn out to be a RINO too.

tom

 

[Melensdad]

OZ probably already is a RINO but Fetterman is literally incoherent and pretty much a socialist. The choice is always easy when there is a socialist on the ballot.