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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] Drought Outlook Improving, El Niño Fading
[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] The drought outlook is showing improvement from Texas through most of Nebraska and Missouri with improvements forecast to occur through April, says Steve Hilberg, Director, Midwestern Regional Climate Center. In addition, corn growers in states such as IL, IN, OH and IA will likely have few concerns over inadequate soil moisture conditions heading into planting.
"The rains we've had this winter in the southern half of the Midwest will provide a pretty good buffer for any precipitation deficits that we might develop in the spring," says Hilberg. "We had a similar weather situation to the one we're currently experiencing during 2005 in the central Midwest. It was a very wet winter; especially January, then it turned dry in the spring, but it started raining again in early summer."
U.S. corn farmers produced 11.1 billion bushels of corn and averaged 148 bu./ acre in 2005. Last year, U.S. corn farmers produced 10.5 billion bushels of corn and averaged 148 bu./acre yields.
The Midwest's soil-moisture shortage spot is currently confined to northern Minnesota and surrounding areas, says Hilberg. "Higher than normal precipitation the rest of this winter and spring will be needed to take care of soil moisture shortages in corn growing areas of Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Dakotas," he adds.
Grain movements on the Upper Mississippi River this spring may be adversely affected if moisture levels remain low in states like Minnesota and Wisconsin, says Hilberg. "From St. Louis on south, I would expect the Mississippi River to be running high this spring if precipitation continues," he says. "However, water flows on the Mississippi River north of St. Louis will depend on what happens in the Upper Midwest the rest of the winter and during early spring, since conditions have been very dry there to date."
Recent crop production forecasts based on this winter's El Niño conditions are also in doubt, points out Hilberg. "This hasn't been a typical El Niño like we saw in '97 and '98," he says. "El Niño is peaking now, and is forecast to weaken in February and March. By summertime, there may be no El Niño to talk about. In fact, there is a lot more affecting our weather this year than El Niño."
As a result, Hilberg says that "your typical El Niño forecast won't necessarily be what to expect this spring." In a typical El Niño year, he adds, summer precipitation levels would be expected to be higher than normal in the western Midwest and Grain Plains. Without an El Niño effect, summer precipitation levels are a little harder to predict.
For more information on the outlook for Drought, visit the following National Weather Service Web link: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.[/FONT]
[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] The drought outlook is showing improvement from Texas through most of Nebraska and Missouri with improvements forecast to occur through April, says Steve Hilberg, Director, Midwestern Regional Climate Center. In addition, corn growers in states such as IL, IN, OH and IA will likely have few concerns over inadequate soil moisture conditions heading into planting.
"The rains we've had this winter in the southern half of the Midwest will provide a pretty good buffer for any precipitation deficits that we might develop in the spring," says Hilberg. "We had a similar weather situation to the one we're currently experiencing during 2005 in the central Midwest. It was a very wet winter; especially January, then it turned dry in the spring, but it started raining again in early summer."
U.S. corn farmers produced 11.1 billion bushels of corn and averaged 148 bu./ acre in 2005. Last year, U.S. corn farmers produced 10.5 billion bushels of corn and averaged 148 bu./acre yields.
The Midwest's soil-moisture shortage spot is currently confined to northern Minnesota and surrounding areas, says Hilberg. "Higher than normal precipitation the rest of this winter and spring will be needed to take care of soil moisture shortages in corn growing areas of Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Dakotas," he adds.
Grain movements on the Upper Mississippi River this spring may be adversely affected if moisture levels remain low in states like Minnesota and Wisconsin, says Hilberg. "From St. Louis on south, I would expect the Mississippi River to be running high this spring if precipitation continues," he says. "However, water flows on the Mississippi River north of St. Louis will depend on what happens in the Upper Midwest the rest of the winter and during early spring, since conditions have been very dry there to date."
Recent crop production forecasts based on this winter's El Niño conditions are also in doubt, points out Hilberg. "This hasn't been a typical El Niño like we saw in '97 and '98," he says. "El Niño is peaking now, and is forecast to weaken in February and March. By summertime, there may be no El Niño to talk about. In fact, there is a lot more affecting our weather this year than El Niño."
As a result, Hilberg says that "your typical El Niño forecast won't necessarily be what to expect this spring." In a typical El Niño year, he adds, summer precipitation levels would be expected to be higher than normal in the western Midwest and Grain Plains. Without an El Niño effect, summer precipitation levels are a little harder to predict.
For more information on the outlook for Drought, visit the following National Weather Service Web link: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.[/FONT]