Corona Virus spreading ... US official says no need to worry

When the government tells me I don't need to worry, then I tend to think I really do need to be concerned. But at least one report is quoting some US health officials as saying there is no need for US citizens to worry.

We know there are 4 cases in the USA, 1 case in Canada.

The Canadian case is a man who arrived sick and is in the hospital in Toronto. Canadian health officials seemed to imply that they have probably contacted all the at risk people who may have been in contact with the Chinese national on the inbound flight.

In the US, there is 1 confirmed case in Washington State, 1 in Chicago, 2 in California. I believe all the cases are foreign nationals.

China has QUARANTINED roughly 60 MILLION PEOPLE by cutting off 16 (or more) cities. The epicenter is Wuhan, a city of 11 Million people, but the quarantine was put into place after roughly 5 million people left the city for the Lunar New Year celebration, which is the heaviest travel time in China and typically has more than 100,000,000 people traveling nationally + internationally for the week long holiday period.

Official sources say there are under 2000 cases worldwide, and approximately 50 deaths. The disease is being compared to the Spanish Flu, which killed millions just about 100 years ago, but this is considered far more dangerous.

UN-official sources suggest that at least 100,000 cases exist and the disease is spreading and mutating very quickly.

REUTERS SUMMARY:
http://news.trust.org/item/20200126105121-12mxo

China scrambles to contain 'strengthening' virus
(Adds comments from mayor of Wuhan)

* Coronavirus' transmission ability getting stronger

* Incubation 1-14 days, infectious during incubation

* China confirms 1,975 people infected, 56 dead

* U.S. to evacuate diplomatic staff, citizens from Wuhan

* China imposes temporary nationwide ban on sale of wildlife

By Gabriel D. Crossley and Cheng Leng

BEIJING/SHANGHAI, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The ability of the new coronavirus to spread is strengthening and infections could continue to rise, China's National Health Commission said on Sunday, with more than 2,000 people in China infected and 56 killed by the disease.

Health authorities around the world are racing to prevent a pandemic after a handful of cases of infection were reported outside China, including in Thailand, Australia, the United States and France.

The mayor of Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak, said he expected another 1,000 new patients in the city, which was stepping up construction of special hospitals.

The newly identified coronavirus has created alarm because much about it is still unknown, such as how dangerous it is and how easily it spreads between people. It can cause pneumonia, which has been deadly in some cases.

China's National Health Commission Minister Ma Xiaowei said the incubation period for the virus can range from one to 14 days, during which infection can occur, which was not the case with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).

SARS was a coronavirus that originated in China and killed nearly 800 people globally in 2002 and 2003.

"According to recent clinical information, the virus' ability to spread seems to be getting somewhat stronger," Ma told reporters.

The Lunar New Year holiday, traditionally celebrated by hundreds of millions of Chinese travelling around the country and abroad to see family, began on Friday but has been severely disrupted by the outbreak.

Ma said China would intensify its containment efforts, which have so far included transportation and travel curbs and the cancellation of big events.

The country may extend the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, state broadcaster CCTV reported, citing a meeting hosted by Chinese premier Li Keqiang.

The virus, believed to have originated late last year in a seafood market in Wuhan that was illegally selling wildlife, has spread to cities including Beijing and Shanghai. Hong Kong has six confirmed cases.

The World Health Organisation this week stopped short of calling the outbreak a global health emergency, but some health experts question whether China can contain the epidemic.

Chinese President Xi Jinping described the situation as "grave" on Saturday.

China confirmed 2,051 cases of infection as of 7 p.m. (1100 GMT) on Jan. 26, while the death toll from the virus remained at 56, state broadcaster CCTV reported.

Health officials in Orange County, California, reported that a third case had been registered in the United States in a traveller from Wuhan, who was in isolation and in good condition.

On Saturday, Canada declared a first "presumptive" confirmed case in a resident who had returned from Wuhan. Australia confirmed its first four cases.

No fatalities have been reported outside China.

WILDLIFE SALES BAN

On Sunday, China temporarily banned nationwide the sale of wildlife in markets, restaurants, and e-commerce platforms. Wild and often poached animals packed together in Chinese markets are blamed as incubators for viruses to evolve and jump the species barrier to humans.

Snakes, peacocks, crocodiles and other species can also be found for sale via Taobao, an e-commerce website run by Alibaba.

The New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society called on China to make the ban permanent.

The U.S. State Department said it will relocate personnel at its Wuhan consulate to the United States, while Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said his government was working with China to arrange a charter flight for Japanese nationals to return from Wuhan.

The outbreak has prompted widening curbs on movements within China, with Wuhan, a city of 11 million, on virtual lockdown and transport links all-but severed except for emergency vehicles.

CANCELLATIONS AND MISTRUST

Health authorities in Beijing urged people not to shake hands but instead salute using a traditional cupped-hand gesture. The advice was sent in a text message that went out to mobile phone users in the city on Sunday morning.

Beijing also postponed the reopening of the city's schools and universities after the Lunar New Year holiday, state radio reported. Hong Kong had already delayed the reopening of schools to Feb. 17.

China has called for transparency in managing the crisis, after a cover-up of the spread of the SARS virus eroded public trust, but officials in Wuhan have been criticised for their handling of the current outbreak.

"People in my hometown all suspect the real infected patients number given by authorities," said Violet Li, who lives in the Wuhan district where the seafood market is located.

Illustrating the extend of disruption to life in China, overall passenger travel declined by nearly 29% on Saturday, the first day of the Lunar New Year, from a year earlier, with air passengers down nearly 42%, a transportation ministry official said.

Many cinemas across China were closed with major film premieres postponed.

Cruise operators including Royal Caribbean Cruises, and Costa Cruises said they had cancelled a combined 12 cruises that had been scheduled to embark from Chinese ports before Feb. 2.

Hong Kong Disneyland and the city's Ocean Park were closed on Sunday. Shanghai Disneyland, which expected 100,000 visitors daily through the holiday period, has already closed.

Airports around the world have stepped up screening of passengers from China, although some health officials and experts have questioned the effectiveness of these efforts.
 
Maybe the powers that be are finding the populace is losing faith in their reporting numbers so they're reporting the actual numbers.
 
They just announced that March break is going to move to April this year because of covid in Ontario. Not sure what that will do to change things. We'll see.
 
Frank here are some reasons.

1 is absolutely political. On the day that President Biden was inaugurated the WHO changed their standards for defining the Covid test standards.

2 is absolutely political. The CDC, shortly before Mr Biden was inaugurated, mandated a lower cycle count in for Covid tests.

3 it is probably the cycle of the disease. They all run in cycles. So perhaps some of it is just luck.

All that said, I am concerned that the new variants will tick up the numbers if we don't increase the pace of the vaccinations. We know that as cases go up so do deaths. It's a numerical reality that deaths go up with this disease and go down with this disease. So the key is that we need to get more people some immunity, even if only partial, before the new variants, which seem to spread faster, take a grip on this nation.

Based on the data I'm seeing, even with only 1 dose of the vaccine, if someone does catch Covid, even someone over 60 years old, they don't go into the hospital, they don't die from the disease. They may get sick, they may fell miserable, but they don't need hospital care or funeral services.
 
Gov DeWine just announced no more curfew for Ohio.
Gee, I didn't know we ever HAD an enforced curfew. 🙃

Also, Henry county reports that 10% of residents have been vaccinated.
 
So here's the thinking of the powers that be in our provincial government. We've been under a "stay at home" order since Christmas because it's "safer" there. Covid numbers are on the rise despite the stay at home order. Particularly in the school system. So it would make sense to shut down the schools and order the kids to do home schooling.

What actually happened was the government, while telling people since Christmas that it's safer at home on the flipside is now saying it is safer for the kids to be at school where numbers are on the rise. So they postponed spring break from March to April to keep the kids where it's "safer" meanwhile the rest of us have to stay home where it's "safer". Does this make sense?
 
Here's a scenario.

Imagine that you and your children have tested positive for covid and are isolating at home. It's very cold. Like -40 with the windchill. Not to worry. You're safely inside self isolating because you are infected with the virus. Then it happens.

You wake up to the whole house freezing cold with the possibility of pipes bursting. Your furnace has died. You can't leave because you are infected. Nobody is allowed in while you are quarantined. What do you do?

That's exactly what a local family experienced this week up here.

 
Gov Dewine sucks. Ohio sucks at getting the vaccine out to the masses. So many of my friends from WV, SC, FL, IL and IN all have gotten one or both of their shots. I have none, no appt. Nothing. I'm on lists. Whoppee. Frustrating.
 
Gov Dewine sucks. Ohio sucks at getting the vaccine out to the masses. So many of my friends from WV, SC, FL, IL and IN all have gotten one or both of their shots. I have none, no appt. Nothing. I'm on lists. Whoppee. Frustrating.
Doc, I thought Walgreen's, CVS and Rite Aid started mass vaccinations last week.
 
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FWIW, the backwards flyover state of Indiana is on track to have over 900,000 people 1st shot vaccinated by the end of this week and we should have about 400,000 with BOTH shots in their arm by the end of this week. So a total of 1.3 MILLION vaccinations by the end of the week. Given that we have a reasonably small population and are a largely rural state, that is actually pretty darn good. We only have about 6 million residents in the entire state. The above data is based on my STATE's dashboard. JohnsHopkins is actually saying that that we've already passed 1.3 million, if JohnsHopikins is correct then we should be over 1.4 Million by the end of the week can approaching 1.5.

So I don't know what data is correct, but I'll stick with the more conservative data for safety. I do know that the Indiana Covid Dashboard is probably 48 hours behind actual vaccinations. As vaccination data is collected daily, data is sent down to Indianapolis, and then updated on the website 1 time per day. So people who are vaccinated on Wednesday tend to show up in the data on Friday or Saturday.



Doc, I thought Walgreen's, CVS and Rite Aid started mass vaccinations last week.
I don't know about OHIO but in Illinois they are using the drug store chains to vaccinate. BUT not anyone can go to the drug store for the vaccination. You still have to fit the appropriate AGE and be on the RISK lists to get the shot. And you need an APPOINTMENT at the pharmacy to get the shot. So mass vaccinations in Illinois are not happening at the pharmacies. Again, each state has their own process so I what is happening in Ohio may be very different than what is happening in Illinois.





PFIZER recommended 3 weeks between injections for maximum efficacy. MODERNA recommended 4 weeks between injections for maximum efficacy.

We also know that in the UK they are using primarily the OX/AZ vaccine but in the UK they are stretching out the time intervals largely to REDUCE severe cases. They have found that people with 1 dose in their arm may still get Covid, and may still get sick, but they do NOT end up in the hospital or in the morgue. So their logic is saying a delay removes MOST of the risks and prevents their healthcare system from being crushed.



US CDC Weighs Extending Interval Between COVID Jab Doses

In what could become another major messaging flip-flop from the CDC, after repeatedly urging all eligible Americans to make sure not to miss their second follow-up dose of the COVID vaccine, Bloomberg reports that the scientific professionals managing the US COVID response are weighing recommendations to extend the interval between the first and second dose as supplies run low.



The CDC's advisory committee has reportedly debated the idea, which will be taken up by the full committee and provide official guidance, according to a Bloomberg report. Jose Romero, chairman of the committee and Arkansas health secretary, reportedly declined to comment officially.

Such a delay would be a big shift from just a few weeks ago, when US health officials rejected a dose-stretching policy adopted by the UK which allowed up to 12 weeks between shots. Most drugmakers have agreed, saying that policies should follow the protocols used in the shots’ testing, in which the intervals were set at three or four weeks.

But apparently the situation has changed, or is changing.
Despite all the fearmongering about the COVID "mutant" strains (another possibility repeatedly denied by Dr. Tony Fauci and other top health officials until it finally became a reality), Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York affirmed earlier that the state's positivity rate had fallen to its lowest level since November (though Cuomo is also now embroiled in a worsening scandal over allegedly lying about COVID deaths in NY's nursing homes.

"We know that until we have sufficient vaccine, there is the requirement to have some sort of prioritization scheme," Clay Marsh, West Virginia’s Covid-19 czar, said in an interview.
"The next question is, is it better to put a single dose in the arms of more people?"
The CDC is weighing the shift, which could slow down the vaccination process, while President Biden is doing everything in his power to hit the 100MM vaccinated mark by his 100th day in office.

While supplies have been cited in some reports, we also note demand could also become an issue as not just vaccine-skeptics, but weather-impacted travel restrictions (see Texas for example) mean there are not enough arms to jab.

And unfortunately, it seems some states have been overwhelmed by the task of trying to get enough doses for the most urgently needed patients, all of which have forced both the FDA and CDC to "moderate" their stance about delaying the second dose.

Though we do question the 'science' here? Is the science of vaccine efficacy protocols being sacrificed at the alter of inept local government logistics? . . .
 
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I deal with CVS usually. So I checked with them. A phone call puts you in automation hell. Web site is not much better but eventually here is what I found. here are the stores that have the vaccine, none even close to me, and every one of them is fully booked. So frustrating.

1613575355481.png
 
While supplies have been cited in some reports, we also note demand could also become an issue as not just vaccine-skeptics, but weather-impacted travel restrictions (see Texas for example) mean there are not enough arms to jab.
Just something that I heard on the local news: A vaccine hub in Houston had some leftover vac's that were going to expire, so they went to a local college and vaccinated students with the remainder. This was just a couple of days ago, and I haven't heard about any fallout from that.

This is aggravating:

"Feb. 16, 2021 -- A doctor near Houston, gave out 10 doses of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine after an opened vial was set to expire in 6 hours. Then he was charged with stealing the vaccine and was fired from his job at the Harris County Public Health Department, according to The New York Times."

"Gokal realized that the 6-hour expiration window had begun, so he looked for more people who could get a vaccine, starting with the health care workers and police officers at the event, who either declined or had already been vaccinated."

"Gokal gave the doses to acquaintances and strangers, including a bed-bound woman in her 90s, a woman in her 80s with dementia, several men and women in their 60s and 70s with health issues, and a mother with a child on a ventilator. After midnight and just minutes before the vial would expire, the final person called and said he wouldn’t make it. Gokal turned to his wife, who has a pulmonary disease that causes shortness of breath, and gave her the last dose."
 

We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April


A professor at Johns Hopkins is projecting that Covid will be largely gone in April of this year.. So you'd think this should be a headline banner published in every newspaper all around the world.

He makes several key points. Top 2 take aways are that the actual infection rate for Covid nationally is much higher than reported and the fact that we should have about 100,000 million vaccinations jabbed into peoples arms in March of this year.

Thanks to the WALL STREET JOURNAL for having the courage to publish this. Given the political climate one can presume that if this is true, it will be buried by major media sources everywhere and we'll be wearing masks for 2 years. This guy will likely be fired or "cancelled" by the leftist too.



Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?
In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.
There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.

Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.
Researchers at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute found that the percentage of people mounting a T-cell response after mild or asymptomatic Covid-19 infection consistently exceeded the percentage with detectable antibodies. T-cell immunity was even present in people who were exposed to infected family members but never developed symptoms. A group of U.K. scientists in September pointed out that the medical community may be under-appreciating the prevalence of immunity from activated T-cells.
Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.
In my own conversations with medical experts, I have noticed that they too often dismiss natural immunity, arguing that we don’t have data. The data certainly doesn’t fit the classic randomized-controlled-trial model of the old-guard medical establishment. There’s no control group. But the observational data is compelling.
I have argued for months that we could save more American lives if those with prior Covid-19 infection forgo vaccines until all vulnerable seniors get their first dose. Several studies demonstrate that natural immunity should protect those who had Covid-19 until more vaccines are available. Half my friends in the medical community told me: Good idea. The other half said there isn’t enough data on natural immunity, despite the fact that reinfections have occurred in less than 1% of people—and when they do occur, the cases are mild.
But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.
My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. But it’s also based on direct observation of how hard testing has been to get, especially for the poor. If you live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by testing. But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity.
Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about herd immunity. The term has political overtones because some suggested the U.S. simply let Covid rip to achieve herd immunity. That was a reckless idea. But herd immunity is the inevitable result of viral spread and vaccination. When the chain of virus transmission has been broken in multiple places, it’s harder for it to spread—and that includes the new strains.
Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection. Doctors are watching a new strain that threatens to evade prior immunity. But countries where new variants have emerged, such as the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, are also seeing significant declines in daily new cases. The risk of new variants mutating around the prior vaccinated or natural immunity should be a reminder that Covid-19 will persist for decades after the pandemic is over. It should also instill a sense of urgency to develop, authorize and administer a vaccine targeted to new variants.
Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.
Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”
 
Also of NOTE, data coming out of Israel, the nation with the highest level of vaccination in the world, primarily using the Pfizer vaccine.

Sample size is 500,000 people!

After 1 injection of Pfizer's 2 part vaccine people had 90% immunity and are expected to retain that for up to 6 months. Again that is only with 1 of the 2 doses administered. Zero hospitalizations 21 days after first injection. It does take a few weeks for the body to build immunity so people are still at risk for a couple weeks after the 1st shot. But the data is astounding in that just 1 shot can keep people out fo the hospital.

Data also shows that just 1 shot dramatically reduces severe Covid. Oddly, it is less effective on mild covid.

At this point we can't extrapolate this data and apply it to the otters brands of vaccine.

The USA is following a 2 shot strategy while the UK is following a 1 shot strategy. The FDA has looked at some data, but currently choosiest stay with the 2 dose strategy, with 2nd dose following 3 weeks {Pfizer} or 4 weeks [Moderna] after the 1st dose. The UK switched to the 1 dose strategy about a month ago and is working to give 1 dose to as many as possible ASAP and plans to give a 2nd dose out 3+ months after the first was administered. If there is a race for herd immunity, one can presume the UK strategy will get them there quicker. The UK took a serious gamble and data shows their gamble may pay off. Fortunately.

USA - 12.5% have 1st vaccination, roughly 5% have 2 vaccinations
UK - 24.6% have 1st vaccination, but 0.9% have 2nd vaccination
 
I got Covid shot 2 this afternoon. Moderna. It was a little over 5 hours ago. No pain at the injection site. Nothing else noticeable at this point in time.

——————————————

Germany and Italy are experiencing increasing cases of Covid while the US and many other nations are seeing decreasing Covid cases. both nations are under lockdowns and both are worried about a 3rd wave

Boris Johnson, PM in England, suggests that the U.K. could return to “normal” by Mid-Summer of this year.

Infections in highly vaccinated Israel are dropping at roughly the same rate that infections in the largely un-vaccinated Palestinian territory are dropping. Hmmm?

——————————————

The United Nations is reporting that 2020 was officially the worst year for tourism in modern history. The impact, on nations from Thailand to Iceland are economically devastating. I’m just wondering out loud if tourist dependent nations will begin pushing for Covid Vaccination Passports to reopen their income streams.
 
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I should not go out to eat in public, despite being fully vaccinated.
I should not go to a movie theatre, despite being fully vaccinated.
So says Dr Anthony Fauci.
If true, then what the heck good is the vaccination? I likely won't get sick. Which is the whole point of the vaccine. Should life now begin to return to normal? Granted society still has a way to go before enough people get vaccinated but damn. They want to sit down and start thinking about modifying rules. What the heck have they been doing?

And its all just "for the vaccinated" that will see these freedoms return. So does that mean vaccine passports?

VIDEOS at the link ; https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/fauci-us-may-soon-ease-rules-fully-vaccinated

Fauci Says US May Soon Ease Rules... For The Vaccinated​

BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, FEB 23, 2021 - 11:15
Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious diseases specialist (and highest-paid government employee), says that while we may still be wearing masks in 2022, those who have received a COVID-19 vaccine may be able to enjoy 'eased' public health protocols, according to Bloomberg.

"When you say, wait a minute, if I’m fully vaccinated, and my daughter comes in the house and she’s fully vaccinated, do we really" need the same strict rules? Fauci said during a Tuesday interview with CNN. "Common sense tells you that, in fact, you don’t have to be as stringent in your public health measures."

That said, Fauci - President Biden's top medical adviser, said he didn't want to get ahead of the CDC's advice, which he said could be forthcoming, and should "relax the stringency of the recommendations," particularly when it comes to family members who have been vaccinated.

When host Alisyn Camerota asked Fauci whether fully vaccinated people should be able to get together with family indoors, Fauci responded that he would be comfortable with that, but that some of the discussions currently taking place "were not very comfortable.

According to Fauci, however, the CDC wants to "sit down, talk about it, look at the data and then come out with a recommendation based on the science."

On Monday, Fauci recommended that fully vaccinated people still shouldn't dine indoors or go to theaters yet.
 
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