African Americans vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, what is not commonly known is the fact that the Democrats haven’t won a majority of the white vote in a presidential election in over 40 years. In a country that is 2/3rds white (with a voting demographic that is over 70% white) that is what I would call a political problem.
Now we see former NFL player Lynn Swann running neck & neck with Penn Governor Ed Rendell, some polls have Swann pulling ahead by a couple percentage points in the polls for the upcoming Governor's race.
Add to that, Ken Blackwell is an African American running for Governor in Ohio, and while his chances are not as good as Swann's in winning the race, Ohio is a key state in politics and to have a prominant Black running on the GOP ticket may be a problem for the Democrats. As if the Democrats need another strike against them, African American Michael Steel is running in Maryland for state office as well.
Now look at the numbers. The Democrats typically get about 93% of the the Black vote. They have very little chance of gaining any ground since they effectively have the African American vote locked up. The GOP, on the other hand, can cause major problems for the Democrats if they only gain a small % of the total Black vote and that seems ever more likely given the candidates that are going to be running on the GOP ticket in 2006.
The liberals have traditionally held a stranglehold on the Black vote largely through the use of entitlement programs, but African Americans who vote are far more conservative socially than many would believe and the traditional use of entitlements may be losing its grip on the voting block.
Any thoughts? Will the Democrats move closer to the center to retain the Black vote that may slip over to the GOP? Will African Americans vote for a Black GOP member in great numbers? Given that the Democrats have already lost the majority of the white vote, are they doomed to the political fringe if only 10-to-15% of the non-Republican Blacks switch parties when they vote this year?
I see a very interesting year.
Now we see former NFL player Lynn Swann running neck & neck with Penn Governor Ed Rendell, some polls have Swann pulling ahead by a couple percentage points in the polls for the upcoming Governor's race.
Add to that, Ken Blackwell is an African American running for Governor in Ohio, and while his chances are not as good as Swann's in winning the race, Ohio is a key state in politics and to have a prominant Black running on the GOP ticket may be a problem for the Democrats. As if the Democrats need another strike against them, African American Michael Steel is running in Maryland for state office as well.
Now look at the numbers. The Democrats typically get about 93% of the the Black vote. They have very little chance of gaining any ground since they effectively have the African American vote locked up. The GOP, on the other hand, can cause major problems for the Democrats if they only gain a small % of the total Black vote and that seems ever more likely given the candidates that are going to be running on the GOP ticket in 2006.
The liberals have traditionally held a stranglehold on the Black vote largely through the use of entitlement programs, but African Americans who vote are far more conservative socially than many would believe and the traditional use of entitlements may be losing its grip on the voting block.
Any thoughts? Will the Democrats move closer to the center to retain the Black vote that may slip over to the GOP? Will African Americans vote for a Black GOP member in great numbers? Given that the Democrats have already lost the majority of the white vote, are they doomed to the political fringe if only 10-to-15% of the non-Republican Blacks switch parties when they vote this year?
I see a very interesting year.