Deutsch Bank

DKT Opinions ??? Its paying a respectable dividend in the 8 -8 1/2% range .Its the #2 big Boy in Europe .I picked up some preferred stuff a while ago . I got a little nervous when Banks started failing but this one appears to be one of the big banks in Europe that steps in to shore up or take over the smaller banks if they are failing .

Just my personal feelings, but I am not keen on banking. Seems to me that the central banks have failed and were then propped up by their respective governments, but there is still a lot of trouble out there for banks. The commercial lending sector is facing down trouble on commercial real estate, which is still inflated. Credit issues for consumers are still a problem. While more related to US banks, we see that Freddie and Fannie bailed them out by buying something like 1/3 of all US mortgages so we now have a situation where our government owns homes through the bailout acquisitions of both Freddie and Fannie. I'm not sure if Germany and Deutsche Bank fall into that same sort of situation but I suspect that they do.

I'm very bearish right now on the financial sector. Strikes me that the best plays in the sector may well be sound regional banks that don't have either INTERNATIONAL exposure or lots of commercial real estate exposure.

Other sector plays may be in emerging market banks in Brazil, India, etc. But I'd be cautious of Chinese and Russian banks.

B_Skurka said:

Just my personal feelings, but I am not keen on banking. Seems to me that the central banks have failed and were then propped up by their respective governments, but there is still a lot of trouble out there for banks. The commercial lending sector is facing down trouble on commercial real estate, which is still inflated. Credit issues for consumers are still a problem. While more related to US banks, we see that Freddie and Fannie bailed them out by buying something like 1/3 of all US mortgages so we now have a situation where our government owns homes through the bailout acquisitions of both Freddie and Fannie. I'm not sure if Germany and Deutsche Bank fall into that same sort of situation but I suspect that they do.

I'm very bearish right now on the financial sector. Strikes me that the best plays in the sector may well be sound regional banks that don't have either INTERNATIONAL exposure or lots of commercial real estate exposure.

Other sector plays may be in emerging market banks in Brazil, India, etc. But I'd be cautious of Chinese and Russian banks.

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Really good points Bob ! Well thought out .Russian banks would scare me more than Chinese .

BigAl said:

Russian banks would scare me more than Chinese .

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Agreed but I think that China is in for a big dump in their overall economy. The Chinese government probably would use its propping up of the Huan to maintain its banks, not sure if the Russians can do the same. I'm also afraid of Russian corruption.

But looking to China that nation has been BOOMING for only 1 reason. We, and the rest of the developed nations, have been shifting our production to China and then buying their goods. We are NO LONGER BUYING as much as we had been. So while the global recession has been hurting us, it is also hurting China's output. At the same time, however, China is building factories at a fast pace. They can't seem to slow their growth of production capacity and that capacity is rapidly outgrowing all rational projections of demand.

Something in China will have to give, and when the demand remains flat long enough and the capacity continues to rise due to continued building then I expect China may hiccup, burp or otherwise have some serious indigestion.

B_Skurka said:

I'm also afraid of Russian corruption.

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BINGO !

On another note I just want to say thanks , Your input really opens up some great insight . We may not always be able to agree on financial issues but it sure is refreshing to get other opinions .

I am staying clear of banks. In fact, I bought some SKF. I may have to regret that. The banks are suckin pond water, but SKF isn't going up.

Maybe a bonehead move. But I am in industrials which I believe will continue to gain, They hit rock bottom. One has more than doubled. Easily covers my possible bonehead SKF move.

And then, every day I am hoping banks tank so my SKF goes up. Is that a ridiculous position to have or what? No wonder everybody hates shorts.