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Old 05-07-2019, 07:45 AM
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Default Farmageddon

Good financial article overall on the state of things. Maybe Kirk will share his thoughts on this read...

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Old 05-07-2019, 08:27 AM
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Default Re: Farmageddon

From what I read it seems we have a system that no one, be it politician or banker, that neither wants fixed because it would take lessen or take away their form of making money regardless of it's effect on our entire economy. Did I interpret it correctly?
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Old 05-07-2019, 09:02 AM
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Default Re: Farmageddon

Using data from50 years ago to compare seed and fertilizer prices to today makes it sound terribly unfair for the farmers because the commodities do not sell for the same increases. What is forgotten in the math is why.
Ina word,,,; Productivity

My grandfather had 180 acres of prime Mexican silt land in NE MO. He made a living on dairy cattle, hogs and chickens by growing most of the feed on site. One small tractor, with a matching corn picker, combine, plows and cultivators. He raise about 500 chickens, ten to twenty hogs and milked 36 to50 cows daily.

As one man and a wife, in the technologies of 1950, that was his limit.

Today few make a living on such small operations. Most cultivate thousands of acres and concentrate on growing feed or feeding live stock. This has lowered the cost of production and therefore the cost of the commodity.

However, the cost of bigger, higher tech equipment, better more selective fertilizers and pesticides, the things that allow one man to manage thousands of acres and even thousands of live stocks, cost more. It's no different than in the manufacturing sector. In 1980, I bought packaging machines for $20K today they cost $120K but do so much more.

The results however, have generally been good for farming. Back in my Grandfather's day he worked dawn to dusk to scratch out a living. He had to do this every day, especially in summer. He couldn't leave for even a day or the farm work would get ahead of him. Frankly the company store model follows his life pattern more than anything today.

It was a lifestyle of choice. And, back then many made it. Some 25% of Americans were into family farming. And they fed the nation.

Today it is less than 1% and they feed the world. That said, let us be honest, the family farm, as it was known in 1950, is no more. Today it is a business. A very competitive one at that. families still run them but most farms are high tech industries.

And families still chose them as a life style. Hardly company store slavery.
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Old 05-07-2019, 02:55 PM
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Default Re: Farmageddon

While what franc says is correct, we are hitting a plateau of increasing yields... But we have so very much crop carrying over from year to year, prices are at a low point, compared to our ever increasing expenses. Growing more is going backwards economically, but a short crop with low prices are a killer...

I believe the markets we are subject to need a house cleaning, to end the corruption I think we all know probably exists in the computer trading that is now the sole mechanism we use for so called "price discovery". Over the years there have been many small changes to the rules that govern the market place, and not a single one of these changes have ever been in the farmers favor in my entire farming career. Not a single one comes to mind. They are always in favor of the end user, but more especially the large investor. Especially big banks, and hedge funds, who now I feel control way more of trade than ever before. Maybe this is because the CBOT doubled the contract trading limits back in 2005, that aided greatly in the transfer of wealth from the stock market that was burning down in 2008, to commodities, that seemed much more safe. In the mix was the birth of ethanol production, and these two fueled an orgy of money making by farmers the likes of witch had not been seen since WWII.. This drove up land prices, machinery, production inputs, ect.. These same price increases are now our main problem. Crop prices are half of what they were when these prices were established, and darned if they are not coming down much at all...

Some of the farms that are in trouble are of their own doing. Those farmers thought there would never again be lean times. They barrowed, bought, built, with out thinking the gravy train would ever end. Now the party is over and the hang over is in it's 5th year now. Land prices are off the highs by 25% or so, but if they go down much more, they will take the financially weak off the playing field for good...

The livestock markets are even worse with corruption. We have relatively cheap feed, and yet the cattle feeder receive the lowest percentage of retail meat prices in the history of the industry. We have 4 beef packers now that kill and process over 80% of all beef. Their profits along with the retailers profit margins are the highest ever recorded. Does some thing seem amiss with this? R Calf, a producer group recently files a lawsuit against the big 4 for price collusion, some thing very hard to prove.. I wish them luck and can only hope it leads to the house cleaning the commodities markets so deserve..

The trade issues with China are harming Ag in general this year in ways I could not predict. I hope by next week we can put this trade deal to bed. I hope Trump has the balls to hold China by the neck, and make them commit to a deal they would have never thought they would ever have to endure. Trump is doing what every President before him and after he is gone must do, and hold China accountable for a trade deficit. As farmers we know how business should be run, as we do for ourselves. Trump has shown me he means what he says. I back him in his efforts 100%, even though with skin in the game it will probably cost me money in the end. So be it if our country as a whole benefits. Time to end the Chinese gravy train..

Farmers are hurting because we are too good at producing. We have lots of folks helping figure out how to grow more every year. We are a victim of our own success...

Regards, Kirk
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Old 05-09-2019, 02:34 PM
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Default Re: Farmageddon

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...hanged-america

This is an article central to how Agriculture was changed by first, by changes in the beef industry. This is were the troubles all began, including the hiring of illegals to dress beef, some thing that happened in the late 70's and very much continues to this very day.

I hope as time goes on we well add to this thread, as it is a disaster of epic proportions in Agriculture that will affect us all, in time.

Regards, Kirk
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Old 05-11-2019, 05:44 PM
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Default Re: Farmageddon

This article poste d above "The price of plenty: how beef changed America" is well worth the time to read.. It addresses so many issues that not just farming but whats been happening in many American businesses in general.

A FOOD CRISIS IS HERE: TROUBLE FOR FARMERS IN THE CORN BELT
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Old 05-11-2019, 06:57 PM
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Default Re: Farmageddon

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bamby View Post

A FOOD CRISIS IS HERE: TROUBLE FOR FARMERS IN THE CORN BELT

The Author of the article does not understand that we have about 25% of a annual crop left over from last year. There will be no food crisis, and if there is, it is yet another fake put over on American consumers. There is an excess of wheat, and it will be fed in the place of corn to live stock for example. The lack of China trade harms the price of soybeans the most, then Pork.. There is currently a terrible out break of Africa Swine Flue ravaging China, with many putting losses of 40% or more on the breeding herd, maybe a higher percentage of market hogs grown for slaughter.. This huge number would have eaten lots of soymeal and corn, thus fattening Global supplies for both crops.

The speculative paper trade and the ability to sell what you do not have is a big part of the problem I believe. In this time of over abundance, speculators have sold huge numbers of "paper" bushels of all of the major grain crops. None of these so called traders, will ever see a single kernel of what they buy and sell at will, by the tens of thousands of tons each day... Today we find them in all time record short positions in all classes of grains. Take your pick.. They are in the middle of the producer, me, and the end user, or the buyer of grain. These guys can be your best friend, or your worst enemy depending on what side of the market you on..

But the world is awash in the major grains. Good weather, good yields, and tremendous additions to crop lands Globally, as the high prices of the 2009-2014 encouraged farmers across the globe to clear more land and plant more acers. For example Austria used to import all of the corn they fed. Today they grow most of what they use. Global population growth is exceeded by the ability to produce huge harvests, year after year.. And Global grains stock are growing. This is reflected in the current low prices.

Another factor is currency rates. This one thing has the most effect on how competitive American farmers are Globally. We have a very strong dollar relative to other currency's of our competitors. It most cases involving exports this one point usually makes or breaks our exports. This is exactly the reason that China manipulates the value of their currency, to their advantage every time.. As you can see when you think about it, all of this commodity buying, selling, pricing, delivering represent quite a set of moving parts to comprehend..

Farmers will not see any price increases that will make meaningful differences in our bottom line. The speculator has stripped any possible profits out of the current markets. USDA reports have been so negative for so long, I don't really remember the last one that was good news. Those reports guild the market prices for the period between them. Raw commodity prices might rise slightly, but believe you me, there are many hands between me and the consumer, and they will have no problem capitalizing on a perceived media driven idea of yet another "crisis". You have to wonder if the author is a Democrat or not. My guess is it is some one who has an interest in food pricing, who wants to create an issue to benefit from. Or an idiot who did not do his home work..

Regards, Kirk
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Old 05-12-2019, 02:51 PM
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Default Re: Farmageddon

Sort of a different perspective on the matter, but damn if I can actually see anything wrong with it.....

The TRUTH About Tariffs

Ok, enough of the screamfest from farmers and BS.

Let's look at the MTS, the canonical source of facts in all things Treasury:



So over the first seven months we've collected $41 billion and change in duties over the $22 billion and change last year. That's $19 billion smackers in additional tariff revenue.

Total ag exports to China are approximately $24 billion a year.

All of them.

Well, so will be the tariffs over a 12 month period.

So with that tariff revenue, should the Chinese decide they would like to try to boycott American agricultural products, we can buy the same amount of said agricultural products and essentially erase a huge amount of starvation in third-world nations by giving the products to them.

It will cost US Treasury zero to do that.

BTW $24 billion is about 0.12% of the US economy. That is, the cost to you as a consumer of these tariffs is going to be a grand price increase of about 0.22% (annualized.) You won't even be able to see that in the price of what you buy -- even more than doubled it will be less than one half of one percent in price increase, unless US firms try to gouge you -- and if they do then your correct response is to destroy the firms and executives who do that and ship their body parts over to China to be recycled by swine-flu infected hogs.

Done whining yet? No?

Then maybe you can explain to me how keeping little kids from starving at the same time we stop China from stealing our intellectual property, protecting family farmers at the same time from being impacted, with an effective zero impact on prices you pay in the United States is bad?

I think it's delicious that in effect we can force the Chinese to feed a bunch of hungry third-world kids.

What do you think?

I think American farmers -- and in fact all American citizens -- should tell Xi to suck our collective dicks.
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Old 05-12-2019, 03:20 PM
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Default Re: Farmageddon

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bamby View Post

So with that tariff revenue, should the Chinese decide they would like to try to boycott American agricultural products, we can buy the same amount of said agricultural products and essentially erase a huge amount of starvation in third-world nations by giving the products to them.

It will cost US Treasury zero to do that.
But it would cost the American Farmer 24 billion in losses this does not account for.

Not to mention they have been actively boycotting USA grains, mainly soybeans for many months now. Lowest prices in 20 years to.

Earl Butt's was USDA chief who coined the phrase "America feeds the World" back in a by gone era many moons ago. It is in fact a lie. We can not, nor ever could, afford to give our food away, to all those in need. Nor is it our job to do so.

The only way this dream can ever be a reality, would be to take any hope of a profit away from the farmer, forever. Give our life's work away to those who do not have any way to feed children they conceive. I bet they will be great parents of children you would want to call your own... Do this long enough that they become dependent.. Great plan.

Regards, Kirk
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Old 05-12-2019, 03:27 PM
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Default Re: Farmageddon

Na he's suggesting buying the grain with the tariff money instead of it going into the feds coffers where the liberals will likely dole it out to sanctuary cities.
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Old 05-12-2019, 03:34 PM
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Default Re: Farmageddon

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bamby View Post
Na he's suggesting buying the grain with the tariff money instead of it going into the feds coffers where the liberals will likely dole it out to sanctuary cities.
Got it, my bad..
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Old 05-12-2019, 05:54 PM
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Default Re: Farmageddon

As I understand it the chinese are not buying soybeans because their hog crop is almost depleted due to african swine flu.
Mike
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Old 05-12-2019, 10:36 PM
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Default Re: Farmageddon

Quote:
Originally Posted by mla2ofus View Post
As I understand it the chinese are not buying soybeans because their hog crop is almost depleted due to african swine flu.
Mike
The tariff they have placed on US beans has kept us out of their market for some time. It cost them extra for a while to source them from South America, and they did that rather than buy ours. Now South American beans are cheaper than ours, as they are just finishing harvest, and they don't have the storage capacity we have here.

Yes the hog loss has cut soybean usage. But one must remember the huge flock of poultry, mostly ducks, they feed as well. Poultry feed also contains Soybean meal just as hog feed does. So the swine flue represents only one part of the picture.

Regards, Kirk
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