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Old 04-02-2013, 08:26 AM
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Default Will S&P maintain highs?

10 Startling Statistics About the S&P's Record High (Part 2)
By
LOUIS BASENESE, Chief Investment Strategist

Yesterday, I set out on a mission to share a handful of startling statistics concerning the S&P 500 Index's run-up to a new, all-time high.

If you're still wondering why we should even care, consider that a heap of money tracks the S&P 500.

To be exact, there's $2.7 trillion in open-end mutual funds and $187 billion in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to the Index, according to Morningstar.

That compares to about $142 million in fund assets tracking the Dow.

I'm willing to bet that some of your hard-earned capital is included in those totals. In other words, you've got "skin in the game," so to speak. And that's a pretty good reason to take an interest in the topic at hand, if you ask me.

So let's pick up where we left off yesterday...

~Stock Stat #6: Stay Away From Solar!

Yesterday I noted how we should be looking for momentum plays (i.e. - the best-performing stocks since the market hit bottom). After all, trends tend to persist in the market.

Well, the same holds true on the flipside, meaning we should avoid stocks that have shown lackluster performance since the market bottom. Because they're likely to keep struggling.

And that brings us to First Solar (FSLR).

It's the worst-performing stock, dropping 75% since March 2009. So much for the "sunny" prospects for solar stocks. (Let the record show, I did warn you here and here.)

~Stock Stat #7: One Bad Apple Can't Spoil the Bunch

Since the Dow only tracks 30 companies, one or two stocks can heavily influence its performance.

In fact, the 155% run-up for International Business Machines (IBM), from $83 in March 2009 to $213 today, accounted for one-tenth of the Dow's total gain, according to Standard & Poor's Howard Silverblatt.

In contrast, the 500 companies in the S&P Index can't exert such undue influence. Not even Apple (AAPL).

The stock has slumped a staggering 37.2% since September 2012. (By the way, I told you so.) Yet the S&P 500 still marched to a new record high.

Granted, if Apple's stock didn't head south, the S&P 500 would have set a new record on March 5, the same day as the Dow, according to Silverblatt.

~Stock Stat #8: A Golden Perspective

No surprise here, given all the money printing being done by Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke. But if we priced the S&P 500 in grams of gold, we can see that it's nowhere near a peak...


~Stock Stat #9: Don't Underestimate the Power of Dividend Reinvesting

It's official. The Dow and the S&P 500 have both recovered all of their losses since the Great Recession hit.

Who said buy-and-hold investing was dead?

And if you bought, held and reinvested dividends, your portfolio would be in even better shape.

A $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 on October 9, 2007 would be worth $11,270 today.

So instead of being back to breakeven, you would actually be up 12.7%.

Just something to keep in mind if you're thinking of bailing on stocks altogether.

~Stock Stat #10: Far From a Rarity

For those of you who might be thinking it's time to cash in and move out of stocks, just because the market hit a new record high, hold up!

All-time highs aren't as rare as you might expect. Especially if we measure the total return of the S&P 500, including dividends (not just the price appreciation).

When we do, the S&P 500 has actually been hitting record highs since April 2, 2012.

More specifically, the Index hit a total of seven records last year and 26 so far this year, according to The Wall Street Journal's Market Data Group.

I suspect the number is going to keep growing, too. So don't miss out.
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Old 04-02-2013, 09:58 AM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

Will S&P maintain highs?

Got $5,000 in ETF SKF shorting the S&P 10X, just waiting for the bubble to pop. The market run-up is so phony. Ben Bernanke (the most dangerous head of the Fed ever) monitizes the debt (something he said he would NEVER do) hands the Big Banksters $85 billion a month at 0%, with the promise to buy back phony USA bonds. The Banksters have no choice but to invest in the phony stock market, running up the DOW and the S&P with a phony job-less recovery.

When will it all go POP? Just a matter of time. But this time there will be no fuckin' socialist bailouts. Capitalism will prevail. The S will HTF.
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Old 04-02-2013, 12:54 PM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

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Originally Posted by Kane View Post
Will S&P maintain highs?

Got $5,000 in ETF SKF shorting the S&P 10X, just waiting for the bubble to pop. The market run-up is so phony. Ben Bernanke (the most dangerous head of the Fed ever) monitizes the debt (something he said he would NEVER do) hands the Big Banksters $85 billion a month at 0%, with the promise to buy back phony USA bonds. The Banksters have no choice but to invest in the phony stock market, running up the DOW and the S&P with a phony job-less recovery.

When will it all go POP? Just a matter of time. But this time there will be no fuckin' socialist bailouts. Capitalism will prevail. The S will HTF.
Bingo. That's why this market is going to implode within 2 years.

Over these last few years I've been a buy and hold kinda guy but I'm seriously considering moving out of this market, sitting on the sidelines, counting my money and watching what happens.
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Old 04-03-2013, 08:02 AM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

Sold my SK before the first of the year....

It was the only thing I have that was loosing. Maybe I should sell out and buy back the SK now??

I was a year too soon, maybe more. Wish I had a crystal ball, that worked anyway.

I have been watching Europe and had thought it would have happened by now, but timing is every thing. Ayone have any clues to what will happen yet this year??

Regards, Kirk
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Old 04-03-2013, 11:52 AM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

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Originally Posted by 300 H and H View Post
I was a year too soon, maybe more. Wish I had a crystal ball, that worked anyway.

I have been watching Europe and had thought it would have happened by now, but timing is every thing. Ayone have any clues to what will happen yet this year??

Regards, Kirk
I wish I knew Kirk.

4-years ago I had a gut feeling that things were going to get bad but didn't act on it. I rode it all the way down and now, all the way back up. Luckily I was holding some cash at the time from recalled bonds and that helped.

Right now I'm starting to get a little uneasy again. It's not the writhing in agony stomach cramps but the gut is starting to get a little squeemish.
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Old 04-03-2013, 01:27 PM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

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Originally Posted by 300 H and H View Post
It was the only thing I have that was loosing. Maybe I should sell out and buy back the SK now??
Ever hear sell high/buy low?
But it's low now. This is not advice, just fact. Do NOT trust my opinion!

But, SKF or any short is something you buy and do not watch, at least not until the market is in freefall. Last time it happened, SKF got over $1,000 a share.
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Old 05-13-2013, 10:30 AM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

I got out of SKF once it broke even after the election -- just not my cup of joe. I didn't like betting against the rest of my stocks. Right now, SKF is about 40% below my entry and exit points last fall.

As for the market in general, things are certainly high, but not bubble high. The S&P P\E ratio is only 18.85, versus almost 30 in January, 2000 and 26 before the SHTF in September, 2008.

And even if there is a bubble, I'm good. The DRIPs just buy more shares on dividend day.
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Old 05-13-2013, 01:33 PM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

So, now that you are certain SKF is at its low, buy.
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Old 05-13-2013, 02:12 PM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

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So, now that you are certain SKF is at its low, buy.
I'm not certain of that. I'm more comfortable investing in sector juggernauts when they're on sale. The speculating stuff just makes me too nervous.
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Old 05-13-2013, 07:42 PM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

ANY equity buy or short is speculating.

And the bigger speculators control your speculation.
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Old 08-23-2015, 10:32 PM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

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Originally Posted by waybomb View Post
So, now that you are certain SKF is at its low, buy.
Just thought I'd revisit this thread. SKF has fallen another 50% and the market has not collapsed. Instead, the S&P 500 is up about 28% from 4/1/13 to now. Right now looks like a good buying opportunity on a buncha stocks. I got my eye on CMI.
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Old 08-24-2015, 07:51 AM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

I've bought $5K of SKF years ago. It was $5K I'm not concerned about and have just let the short ride. After all, thats what you do with a short. Let it ride until the right moment. When will that moment come?

With so much free money, for so long, the rise of the equities market has surpassed all expectations. It's sorta like Donald Trump. With all the free money, nothing seems to stop Trump ... or the equities markets. Both are phony and both have risen to unexpected highs. A very good thing, depending upon your perspective.

So just when will the markets correct? Or more correctly, CRASH?

It's still just a matter of time. And time seems to be running short. And speaking of short, time to keep an eye on that SKF.
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Old 08-24-2015, 07:54 AM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

Well they are crashing right now I hope in 10 years it's just a bump in the road, I hope.

Regards, Kirk
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Old 08-24-2015, 08:24 AM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

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Well they are crashing right now I hope in 10 years it's just a bump in the road, I hope.

Regards, Kirk
We'll see what today brings. Monday. Which emotion will win the day: Will it be fear? Or will it be greed?
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Old 08-24-2015, 08:50 AM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

My skf position kept me from "losing" 35k Friday and only lost 12k.
Skf will be a big help today.
It's a hedge and it works.
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Old 08-24-2015, 11:32 AM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

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My skf position kept me from "losing" 35k Friday and only lost 12k.
Skf will be a big help today.
It's a hedge and it works.
It's not a loss until you sell.

I get that SKF is a hedge. 2.5 years ago, there was a suggestion that it was at a low, yet it still fell by a half as of Friday's close. My point is, timing the market is not a very effective strategy unless you really know what you're doing.

I don't, so I rely on the axiom that time in the market is better than timing the market, with diversity being my hedge. YMMV
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Old 08-24-2015, 12:19 PM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

It's all a gamble, no matter how you do it. Also, note the "" around lost.

You can follow all the charts, apply the algorithms, whatever, and then some asshole turban wearing MF blows something up and it all goes to hell.

Better odds than Vegas though.
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Old 08-24-2015, 12:29 PM
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Default Re: Will S&P maintain highs?

Quote:
Originally Posted by waybomb View Post
It's all a gamble, no matter how you do it. Also, note the "" around lost.

You can follow all the charts, apply the algorithms, whatever, and then some asshole turban wearing MF blows something up and it all goes to hell.

Better odds than Vegas though.
That just about sums it up. This time though that asshole Mother F***er is China. China's economy is NOT free market and is rigged to operate to the whims and fancies of the Politburo. They have their reasons for all those Yuan devaluations and it most certainly does not take our best interests into consideration.

Anybody with half a brain should have a 90 supply of food and water on hand for any eventuality. When Obama stated he wanted to fundamentally change America, that was my impetus to prepare. I trust those assholes in charge about as far as I can throw them and I have a bad back.
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