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Old 02-09-2014, 07:42 PM
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Question Investing Book: The Demographic Cliff

Anyone familiar with the writings of Harvard MBA/Economist Harry S Dent Jr and his demographic analysis of the economic cycles?

I just ordered a copy of THE DEMOGRAPHIC CLIFF: How to Survive & Prosper during the Great Deflation of 2014 to 2019

Near as I can tell, Dent basically says that most of the economy of any nation is based on the people's spending habits, which then drives businesses, etc. He then goes on to argue that if an economy is growing, it is probably based on the fact that a large demographic group has entered a 'spending/buying' cycle in their lives, which triggers a growth across the economy as a whole. So if we had a large population of people in their late 20's to mid-30's then the housing market would likely be picking up as these people are looking to move out of apartments, have kids, etc and need a house and all the stuff that goes with a house.

Based on his theory, due to a decline in the population growth and an aging population, we should see DEFLATION in many segments. Even if we get a large growth in immigration it won't save the economy from deflation because our population has declined in key age ranges and it won't be able to be offset by immigration.

Seems like a reasonable theory, and there is a lot more to it that just that, if I even summarized it correctly.


Ordered the book from Amazon, is supposed to arrive on Wednesday.

Does anyone have any of his other books? Or does anyone think he's a quack? Or other thoughts?

"We are fast approaching the stage of the ultimate inversion:
the stage where the government is free to do anything it pleases,
while the citizens may act only by permission; which is the stage
of the darkest periods of human history, the stage of rule by brute force."
- Ayn Rand
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