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Old 08-04-2018, 06:47 PM
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Default Possible breakthrough in NAFTA talks with Mexico

August 4, 2018
Possible breakthrough in NAFTA talks with Mexico
By Rick Moran
A
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog...th_mexico.html

Some Mexican officials are optimistic that a breakthrough in renegotiation talks for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) may be achieved next week and that Canada, who left the talks when the U.S. slapped tariffs on some imports, could rejoin the trilateral discussions and conclude a deal.

Reuters:


Quote:
Mexico and the United States resumed talks last week, after a U.S. move to slap tariffs on Mexican and Canadian metal exports and Mexico's July elections stalled negotiations that began last year when President Donald Trump demanded a better deal for U.S. workers.

"Technically, we are ready to move into finishing the issues, Mexico-U.S. issues, the most next week. There are very good probabilities that we'll be landing solutions," Guajardo said in English.

"We are optimistic that we can try to land a deal before the end of August," adding there were "three critical, specific points" to resolve that he declined to specify.

Another senior Mexican negotiator was a little less bullish about the chances of a deal this month.

"I am cautiously optimistic. I think it can be done, but there can also be problems. We have to see," Jesus Seade, who joined the Mexican negotiating team last week representing President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador[, said].

Canada has not been at the table in rounds of talks over the past weeks. Some experts say this is a sign of tensions between Canada and the United States, while officials insist trilateral talks will soon resume.
Mexico's new socialist government appears to be more open to boosting auto workers' wages – a key U.S. demand that Mexico had been unwilling to address. There is also the issue of requiring a renegotiation of the deal every five years. That seems a little excessive, and the U.S. may be willing to lengthen that time period in exchange for other concessions.

Canada and Mexico are two of our largest trading partners, and it would be a significant accomplishment if the Trump administration could improve on the deal negotiated two decades ago by the Clinton administration.

How big a change in our trading relationship can we expect? With Mexico, especially, requiring the Mexicans to enforce provisions already in the deal would be a significant change. Canada is a different story. There won't be major changes in the key provisions of the deal but Trump will be able to claim victory if Prime Minister Trudeau signs anything.

If something can be done before midterms, it could affect the outlook for GOP maintaining control of the House.
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Old 08-05-2018, 08:47 PM
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Default Re: Possible breakthrough in NAFTA talks with Mexico

Mexico needs us way more than we need them and Canada’s head honcho has got his panties in a wad at the thought of losing their trade edge to us, he will get all puffed up and make threats, but sooner or later he will bend to President Trumps agenda.
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Old 08-05-2018, 09:27 PM
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Default Re: Possible breakthrough in NAFTA talks with Mexico

A lot of American manufacturing has moved to the border and we have Air Conditioners, Electronics, Washing Machines, etc built there and shipped back here.

We are relying on Mexico for more agricultural products lately too (avocados and other tropical foods)

Making NAFTA a more even trading pact would be beneficial to US manufacturing businesses and likely would save some American production jobs but would also raise some prices on some food products for some of the more exotic and more tropical types of foods.
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Old 08-06-2018, 08:51 AM
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Default Re: Possible breakthrough in NAFTA talks with Mexico

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Making NAFTA a more even trading pact would be beneficial to US manufacturing businesses and likely would save some American production jobs but would also raise some prices on some food products for some of the more exotic and more tropical types of foods.

Riddle me this... Isn't most if not all the significant manufacturing in Mexico actually American that fled there to take cost advantages that would make them more profitable. How is bring them back now going to increase their profit margins?
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Old 08-06-2018, 09:27 AM
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Default Re: Possible breakthrough in NAFTA talks with Mexico

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Originally Posted by Bamby View Post
Riddle me this... Isn't most if not all the significant manufacturing in Mexico actually American that fled there to take cost advantages that would make them more profitable. How is bring them back now going to increase their profit margins?
It won't directly increase margins through production.

It however will remove the favorable tax incentives to moving their businesses out of our country. Remove those tax incentives and they may well have reason to reopen those shuttered factories. Those tax incentives boost the bottom line. Those tax incentives and lower wages offset the increase in transport costs. Factory back here and transport costs drop, which is a bottom line boost.
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Old 08-06-2018, 09:54 AM
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Default Re: Possible breakthrough in NAFTA talks with Mexico

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It won't directly increase margins through production.

It however will remove the favorable tax incentives to moving their businesses out of our country. Remove those tax incentives and they may well have reason to reopen those shuttered factories. Those tax incentives boost the bottom line. Those tax incentives and lower wages offset the increase in transport costs. Factory back here and transport costs drop, which is a bottom line boost.

The only tax incentive I've observed is the tariff on imported goods. In reality the tariff may provide just enough value added to the product to allow an existing American business to remain profitable. But I don't foresee any of them shuttering brand new facilities in Mexico to return to the states.
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Old 08-06-2018, 02:54 PM
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Default Re: Possible breakthrough in NAFTA talks with Mexico

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Originally Posted by Bamby View Post
...I don't foresee any of them shuttering brand new facilities in Mexico to return to the states.
No, of course not. But there are older facilities there too.

And there were tax incentives given by Mexico to open shops there. As well as reduced income taxes on corporations for opening there (which may have changed with our new tax code).
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