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Unemployment Rate Drops!!

tiredretired

The Old Salt
SUPER Site Supporter
to 7.8%!! Seems awful suspicious to me two days after the Obama debate debacle. One reporter on Fox says that this will be revised upward in the coming weeks. So WTF??

Read it here.
 

FrancSevin

Proudly Deplorable
GOLD Site Supporter
to 7.8%!! Seems awful suspicious to me two days after the Obama debate debacle. One reporter on Fox says that this will be revised upward in the coming weeks. So WTF??

Read it here.

I think there is a point at which the democrats actually believe that BS walks. They will continue to spout it 'till you and I believe it as well.
 

squerly

Supported Ben Carson
GOLD Site Supporter
I think there is a point at which the democrats actually believe that BS walks. They will continue to spout it 'till you and I believe it as well.

After all, a turd can be picked up by the clean end... honest.
 

Cowboy

Wait for it.
GOLD Site Supporter
And I would bet a large amount of these "part time' jobs are temporary seasonal positions. :ermm:

Still, many of the jobs the economy added last month were part time. The number of people with part-time jobs who wanted full-time work rose 7.5 percent to 8.6 million, the most since February 2009.
 

pirate_girl

legendary ⚓
GOLD Site Supporter
7.8% US unemployment rate? Well, well, well imagine that!



Could the Bureau of Labor Statistics actually be working for the Obama administration?

Imagine my surprise at 8:30 AM this morning when in the last US employment report to be released before the presidential election the unemployment rate slipped to 7.8% from 8.1%.

I believe that this is the first time since Barack Obama took office that the rate has fallen below 8.0% and for the President it couldn’t come at a more opportune time. After his horrendous performance in the debate with Mitt Romney this week where the dismal economic performance of the country was the focus, one of the major talking point for the Romney campaign, an 8%+ jobless rate, is now off of the table.

Am I claiming collusion between the BLS and the Obama campaign with the release of this surprising report on the condition of the US labor market ? Absolutely not! But here is my question that perhaps one of the nations sterling economic forecasters can help me answer.

Prior to the release this morning the median estimate in a survey of 92 of who I would suppose are considered to be the nations top economists predicted a non-farm payroll increase of 115,000. This same group of forecasters also predicted that the unemployment rate would rise to 8.2%.

So I would appreciate if there is someone out there who can adequately explain to me and other cynical minds who may also have a question about this the following:

How does a non-farm payroll number that comes in 1,000 jobs below the consensus (although there was an upward revision to the previous month of about 80,000) result in a a drop in the unemployment rate from 8.1% to 7.8%?

http://www.rantfinance.com/2012/10/05/7-8-us-unemployment-rate-well-well-well/
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
And I would bet a large amount of these "part time' jobs are temporary seasonal positions. :ermm:

Still, many of the jobs the economy added last month were part time. The number of people with part-time jobs who wanted full-time work rose 7.5 percent to 8.6 million, the most since February 2009.

Jack Welch, former head of G.E., came out BEFORE the numbers were released and stated that he believed, because of the bad showing by Obama at the Debate in Denver, that the employment numbers posted would be below 8%. He also said he believed that the Labor Secretary would have to 'fudge' the data to achieve that number. He also said, that as is normal, the Labor Dept would then quietly 'revise the number up' at a later date. For those who don't know, it is common practice to 'revise the number up' 2 to 3 weeks after the Labor Dept releases the number.

As can be expected, the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy is 'spinning' this as a Labor Department "trick" to take some heat off of Obama, while simultaneously the Complicit Liberal Media is 'spinning' this as proof that our economy is in full recovery.


FROM CNBC (part of the liberal MSNBC/NBC group) via The Daily Caller:
The unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent Friday, dropping below 8 percent for the first time in nearly four years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The economy added 114,000 jobs.

The number of workers involuntarily working part-time due to economic reasons rose in September to 8.6 million, from 8 million in August.

“These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job,” the BLS wrote in a release.

“Economists were expecting 113,000 more jobs and the rate to rise to 8.2 percent. Last month saw 142,000 new jobs as the rate dropped from 8.3 percent in July,” CNBC reported.

But the drop in the unemployment rate belies the number of people who are underemployed or have stopped looking for work.

“The U-6 unemployment number, which accounts for the underemployed and those who have given up looking for jobs, held steady at 14.7 percent,” CNBC noted.




Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/05/unemployment-rate-drops-to-7-8-despite-weak-hiring/#ixzz28R98zPRd
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
Uh oh . . . :whistling:
Total Employment Rises 873,000 To Highest Level Since December 2008
By Noel Sheppard | October 05, 2012 | 08:45
152 154 Reddit3 27
A A

The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September, a number certain to impact the presidential race.

Pundits have been saying for months this number had to drop below 8 percent for it not to be a hindrance to President Obama's reelection chances.

The economy added 114,000 nonfarm payrolls in the month according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics with gains in healthcare, transportation and warehousing.

Truly shocking in the report was that the number of unemployed people dropped by 456,000 to 12.1 million.

Maybe more shocking, total employment, as measured by the Household Survey, rose by 873,000 in September to 142,974,000, the biggest one month jump since June 1983.

As such, total employment now stands at the highest level it's been since December 2008 before Obama was inaugurated.

But even more mysterious is the divergence in the two surveys done by the Labor Department.

The Household Survey showed a gain of 873,000 people employed in September - resulting in the surprise drop in the unemployment rate - while the Establishment Survey only showed a rise of 114,000.

Hmmm.




Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-s...september-highest-december-2008#ixzz28RAtlCOH
 

JEV

Mr. Congeniality
GOLD Site Supporter
...and there are people out there dumb enough to believe that whatever the gubmit tell them is the truth. Oh, they are also mostly Obama voters who get free shit like Obama phones.
 

mak2

Active member
OH, the outrage!!!!


http://thinkprogress.org/election/2012/09/27/924011/the-truth-about-the-obama-phone/?mobile=nc


The video has captured the attention of the right online, who see it as proof that Obama supporters are dependent on government. On his show today, Rush Limbaugh weighed in:

So these are the people that don’t like Romney because of what he said about 47%? No, these are the 47%!… She knows. She knows how to get this free Obama phone. She knows everything about it. She may not know who George Washington is or Abraham Lincoln, but she knows how to get an Obama phone.

Thousands of conservatives are on Twitter, telling jokes about the #ObamaPhone.

There is one problem with the Obama Phone: It doesn’t exist.

Since 2009, there has been an urban myth that Obama created a program to provide free phones to low-income Americans at taxpayer expense. There is, in fact, a government program that will provide low-income people with a free or low cost cell phone. It was started in 2008 under George W. Bush.

The idea of providing low-income individuals with subsidized phone service was originated in the Reagan administration following the break-up of AT&T in 1984. (It was expanded and formalized by the Telecommunications Act of 1996.) The program is paid for by telecommunications companies through an independent non-profit, not through tax revenue.
 

mak2

Active member
The program is paid for by telecommunications companies through an independent non-profit, not through tax revenue.
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
The program is paid for by telecommunications companies through an independent non-profit, not through tax revenue.

Technically you are correct.

However, it is a government mandated program that forces a fee to be charged, regardless of whether you want to participate or not. That is, in effect, a tax that is not technically a tax. Its imposed the same way as a tax, administered essentially the same way as a tax (except through private companies instead of the .gov) and handled as a tax.

Walks like a duck. Quacks like a duck.
 

Kane

New member
Unemployment numbers are published every month, fudged to suit the narrative. But lo and behold, the week after, 'corrections' are quietly published, making adjustments that reflect the real data.

If one were to include statistics of ALL able-bodied adults out of work, underemployed or out of the workforce by choice, the unemployment rate is actually 14.6%. It is unlikely that this fact will go unnoticed as we get closer to November 6th.
.
 

tiredretired

The Old Salt
SUPER Site Supporter
Unemployment numbers are published every month, fudged to suit the narrative. But lo and behold, the week after, 'corrections' are quietly published, making adjustments that reflect the real data.

If one were to include statistics of ALL able-bodied adults out of work, underemployed or out of the workforce by choice, the unemployment rate is actually 14.6%. It is unlikely that this fact will go unnoticed as we get closer to November 6th.
.

Be it my age or personality, but I see a fox in every hen-house and I see a whole kite of them here. Everything happens for a purpose and this drop in unemployment happened for a purpose.

Many predicted the Chicago thugs would be out in force following what is now known as "The Great Obama Debate Debacle" Today we saw the first step in this direction. Great Leader just could not sustain a bad report today to cap off the week. He needed something to negate his horrendous performance on Wednesday and today he got it. Anyone who refuses to see this is much too highly addicted to their dailey fix of Kool-Aid.

To have this much control over what the American people hear and are told is a truely sobering fact. Very sad indeed.
 

Cowboy

Wait for it.
GOLD Site Supporter
Be it my age or personality, but I see a fox in every hen-house and I see a whole kite of them here. Everything happens for a purpose and this drop in unemployment happened for a purpose.

Many predicted the Chicago thugs would be out in force following what is now known as "The Great Obama Debate Debacle" Today we saw the first step in this direction. Great Leader just could not sustain a bad report today to cap off the week. He needed something to negate his horrendous performance on Wednesday and today he got it. Anyone who refuses to see this is much too highly addicted to their dailey fix of Kool-Aid.

To have this much control over what the American people hear and are told is a truely sobering fact. Very sad indeed.
They only have control of those that refuse to beleive a friggen thing unless it comes from an official White House website, even then in some case some wont beleive it because there to damn lazy to even read it. :glare:
 

muleman

Gone But Not Forgotten
GOLD Site Supporter
I watched Jack Welch on Cavuto today. He said it is the biggest scam on numbers he ever saw. I trust his judgement and he ain't no dummy.
 

Danang Sailor

nullius in verba
GOLD Site Supporter
FROM CNBC (part of the liberal MSNBC/NBC group) via The Daily Caller:
The unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent Friday, dropping below 8 percent for the first time in nearly four years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The economy added 114,000 jobs.

The number of workers involuntarily working part-time due to economic reasons rose in September to 8.6 million, from 8 million in August.

“These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job,” the BLS wrote in a release.

“Economists were expecting 113,000 more jobs and the rate to rise to 8.2 percent. Last month saw 142,000 new jobs as the rate dropped from 8.3 percent in July,” CNBC reported.

But the drop in the unemployment rate belies the number of people who are underemployed or have stopped looking for work.

“The U-6 unemployment number, which accounts for the underemployed and those who have given up looking for jobs, held steady at 14.7 percent,” CNBC noted.


This separation of facts is not surprising. It has been pointed out, and proven, that the same set of facts can be used to
argue both sides of an issue. In this case, there are two completely separate sets of numbers used to obtain the
"regular" report and the U-6. In this case, it seems the U-6 seems to give the more accurate picture.


Uh oh . . . :whistling:
Total Employment Rises 873,000 To Highest Level Since December 2008
By Noel Sheppard | October 05, 2012 | 08:45
152 154 Reddit3 27
A A

The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September, a number certain to impact the presidential race.

Pundits have been saying for months this number had to drop below 8 percent for it not to be a hindrance to President Obama's reelection chances.

The economy added 114,000 nonfarm payrolls in the month according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics with gains in healthcare, transportation and warehousing.

Truly shocking in the report was that the number of unemployed people dropped by 456,000 to 12.1 million.

Maybe more shocking, total employment, as measured by the Household Survey, rose by 873,000 in September to 142,974,000, the biggest one month jump since June 1983.

As such, total employment now stands at the highest level it's been since December 2008 before Obama was inaugurated.

But even more mysterious is the divergence in the two surveys done by the Labor Department.

The Household Survey showed a gain of 873,000 people employed in September - resulting in the surprise drop in the unemployment rate - while the Establishment Survey only showed a rise of 114,000.

Hmmm.


Okay, I've looked at both of these surveys and this discrepancy seems to relate to people who want full-time work but could
only find part-time positions. So, the gain in employment figure represents part-time (largely seasonal) workers, while
there were only 114k actual full-time positions created.

The program is paid for by telecommunications companies through an independent non-profit, not through tax revenue.

Absolutely correct!! :clap: But ...

Technically you are correct.

However, it is a government mandated program that forces a fee to be charged, regardless of whether you want to participate or not. That is, in effect, a tax that is not technically a tax. Its imposed the same way as a tax, administered essentially the same way as a tax (except through private companies instead of the .gov) and handled as a tax.

Walks like a duck. Quacks like a duck.

This fee is collected by telecomm companies and turned over to the non-profit corporation that oversees "universal
access". It is mandated by the feds, so even though it is not by technical definition a "tax" ... it might as well be. As Bob
notes:

duck_smiley.gif
"Quack - Quack!"
 

Cowboy

Wait for it.
GOLD Site Supporter
Another look at the UE numbers.


The sickly, stagnant September jobs report

James Pethokoukis | October 5, 2012, 9:30 am

Is this the Obama October Surprise?
Only in an era of depressingly diminished expectations could the September jobs report be called a good one. It really isn’t. Not at all.
1. Yes, the U-3 unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, the first time it has been below 8% since January 2009. But that’s only due to a flood of 582,000 part-time jobs. As the Labor Department noted:
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
2. And take-home pay? Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by just 1.8 percent. When you take inflation into account, wages are flat to down.
3. The broader U-6 rate — which takes into account part-time workers who want full-time work and lots of discouraged workers who’ve given up looking — stayed unchanged at 14.7%. That’s a better gauge of the true unemployment rate and state of the American labor market.


4. The shrunken workforce remains shrunken. If the labor force participation rate was the same as when President Obama took office, the unemployment rate would be 10.7%. If the participation rate had just stayed steady since the start of the year, the unemployment rate would be 8.4% vs. 8.3%. Where’s the progress? Here is RDQ Economics:
Such a rapid decline in the unemployment rate would be consistent with 4%–5% real economic growth historically but much of the decline is accounted for by people dropping out of the labor force (over the last year the employment-population ratio has risen to only 58.7% from 58.4%). We believe part of the drop in the unemployment rate over the last two months is a statistical quirk (the household data show an increase in employment of 873,000 in September, which is completely implausible and likely a result of sampling volatility). Moreover, declining labor force participation over the last year (resulting in 1.1 million people disappearing from the labor force) accounts for much of the rest of the decline.
5. As the chart at the top of the post shows — a chart originally produced by Team Obama — even the artificially depressed 7.8% unemployment rate is way above the 5.6% unemployment rate the White House predicted for September 2012 if Congress passed the $800 billion stimulus package back in 2009.
6. The 114,000 jobs created would have been a good number … but for 1962, not 2012. The U.S. economy needs 2-3 times that number every month to close the jobs gap (which is the number of jobs that the U.S. economy needs to create in order to return to pre-recession employment levels while also absorbing the people who enter the labor force each month.) At 114,000 jobs a month, the jobs gap would not close until after 2025, according to the Hamilton Project.
7. We are still on pace to create fewer jobs this year than last year. In 2012, employment growth has averaged 146,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 153,000 in 2011.
8. White House economist Alan Krueger says the jobs numbers are ”further evidence” the economy is healing. But he’s wrong.
The employment-population ratio, which merely shows how many folks have jobs as a share of the civilian population, was 58.7%. Now that’s up from last month. But it is still far below where it was in June 2009, 59.4%,when the recession officially ended. And it’s even further below the 63% level before the downturn.

Bottom line: The U.S. labor market remains in a deep depression with virtually no recovery since the official end of the Great Recession. But the Long Recession continues unabated.
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/10/the-sickly-stagnant-september-jobs-report/
 
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