Ed Whelan theory of Christine Ford’s mistaken identification of Kavanaugh ultimately prevailed
Posted by William A. Jacobson ▪ October 20, 2018 at 9:00pm
https://legalinsurrection.com/2018/...tification-of-kavanaugh-ultimately-prevailed/
Susan Collins believed that Ford was sexually assaulted, just not by Kavanaugh, a theory floated by Whelan, though Collins did not name a suspect
Now that Brett Kavanaugh is on the Supreme Court, it’s worth taking a look back at what changed the course of the fight.
Democrats had thrown everything they had at Kavanaugh, including a misleadingly edited video circulated by Sen. Kamala Harris and false accusations of perjury circulated by many Democrats. None of it stuck, in part because of rapid fact response by the administration, Kavanaugh’s team, and non-liberal media.
Then came the leak of a letter Christine Blasey Ford had written to Sen. Dianne Feinstein, on September 13, after the hearings had concluded.
We all suspected that this leak was a set up. We were proven right, as the evidence that came out during and after Ford’s and Kavanaugh’s testimony in late September showed that Ford was working with Democrat activist lawyers recommended by Feinstein, and took steps (including a questionable polygraph) in early August to lay the groundwork for a public rollout. While Ford insisted that she wanted her anonymity preserved, she took preparations suggesting she expected her identity to be made public eventually.
When the Ford letter was leaked, the Kavanaugh nomination was put into turmoil. Kavanaugh vigorously denied the accusations, as did each of the three other people Ford identified as being at the party in question. Both Ford and Kavanaugh would testify, but not until September 27.
Republicans had a tactical problem. The Democrats and #MeToo movement boxed Republicans in by trying to take off the table any attempt to question Ford’s credibility and honesty directly.
In that interim period between the letter surfacing and the Ford/Kavanaugh testimony, Republicans searched for a middle ground, one that would allow them to attack the allegations of sexual assault without attacking Ford personally.
On September 20, 2018, that middle ground came forward when Ed Whelan, a well-known conservative legal writer, someone close to Kavanaugh and his team, and President of The Ethics and Public Policy Center, floated a theory in a Twitter thread asserting that Ford may have been a victim of sexual assault, but that she identified the wrong person. In other words, Ford was not consciously lying, she suffered from a case of mistaken identity.
Whelan published that theory in a Twitter thread for which there had been a big build up. Whelan had teased that there would be information exonerating Kavanaugh, that Ford may have been attacked but not by Kavanaugh. Whelan’s teases were widely shared.
Whelan’s Twitter thread purported to identify the house at which the attack likely took place, based on the descriptions in Ford’s letter, and a fellow student who was not Kavanaugh who lived at that house.
When we looked at the thread, we decided not to run it here or even to link to it. We were not persuaded. It seemed like a case of “correlation does not equate to causation.” More important, Whelan reached too far in identifying a specific person.
There was fierce criticism of Whelan not only from the left, but also from the right. In many ways, the theory seemed to damage Kavanaugh’s nomination, though Whelan denied that Kavanaugh’s team was involved at all.
Whelan quickly apologized for naming a specific person:
Note that Whelan did not apologize for his theory that Ford was attacked by someone other than Kavanaugh, but for naming that person who was a possible suspect.
End of the mistaken identity defense?
Hardly. Whelan planted a seed that eventually grew into the decisive factor in Kavanaugh’s confirmation.
When Ford testified, Rachel Mitchell, the Arizona prosecutor hired by Judiciary Committee Republicans to question Ford treated Ford gently. No aggressive questioning, but enough questioning to turn up so many inconsistencies and failures of memory as to lead to a reasonable conclusion that Ford suffered from serious emotional and memory problems unrelated to anything Brett Kavanaugh ever did.
Whelan’s theory that something happened to Ford but that Kavanaugh was not the perpetrator convinced the one person who needed to be convinced — Maine Senator Susan Collins.
In her floor speech announcing that she would vote to confirm Kavanaugh, Collins stated (emphasis added):
Susan Collins, as did Ed Whelan, chose the path of believing that Ford was sexually assaulted, just not by Kavanaugh. Unlike Whelan, Collins did not name a possible other suspect.
Collins repeated this point in post-vote interviews:
A
[ame="http://youtube.com/watch?v=7Xz8e4rnWt0"]Susan Collins: I believe Brett Kavanaugh - YouTube[/ame]
A
Dahlia Lithwick at liberal Slate, notes how the Whelan theory shifted the discussion:
Marshall, in the post linked by Lithwick above, saw Whelan’s theory as the most politically plausible:
I doubt that Whelan’s theory was “poll-tested” or “reverse engineered” or any such thing. Rather, it was the only politically viable theory available in a #MeToo environment in which women MUST be believed, but the evidence contradicted the belief against a specific accused.
Whether spontaneous or “built-in-a-lab,” Whelan ultimately prevailed not in naming a specific alternative perp, but in establishing that there might have been an alternative perp.
Posted by William A. Jacobson ▪ October 20, 2018 at 9:00pm
https://legalinsurrection.com/2018/...tification-of-kavanaugh-ultimately-prevailed/
Susan Collins believed that Ford was sexually assaulted, just not by Kavanaugh, a theory floated by Whelan, though Collins did not name a suspect
Now that Brett Kavanaugh is on the Supreme Court, it’s worth taking a look back at what changed the course of the fight.
Democrats had thrown everything they had at Kavanaugh, including a misleadingly edited video circulated by Sen. Kamala Harris and false accusations of perjury circulated by many Democrats. None of it stuck, in part because of rapid fact response by the administration, Kavanaugh’s team, and non-liberal media.
Then came the leak of a letter Christine Blasey Ford had written to Sen. Dianne Feinstein, on September 13, after the hearings had concluded.
We all suspected that this leak was a set up. We were proven right, as the evidence that came out during and after Ford’s and Kavanaugh’s testimony in late September showed that Ford was working with Democrat activist lawyers recommended by Feinstein, and took steps (including a questionable polygraph) in early August to lay the groundwork for a public rollout. While Ford insisted that she wanted her anonymity preserved, she took preparations suggesting she expected her identity to be made public eventually.
When the Ford letter was leaked, the Kavanaugh nomination was put into turmoil. Kavanaugh vigorously denied the accusations, as did each of the three other people Ford identified as being at the party in question. Both Ford and Kavanaugh would testify, but not until September 27.
Republicans had a tactical problem. The Democrats and #MeToo movement boxed Republicans in by trying to take off the table any attempt to question Ford’s credibility and honesty directly.
In that interim period between the letter surfacing and the Ford/Kavanaugh testimony, Republicans searched for a middle ground, one that would allow them to attack the allegations of sexual assault without attacking Ford personally.
On September 20, 2018, that middle ground came forward when Ed Whelan, a well-known conservative legal writer, someone close to Kavanaugh and his team, and President of The Ethics and Public Policy Center, floated a theory in a Twitter thread asserting that Ford may have been a victim of sexual assault, but that she identified the wrong person. In other words, Ford was not consciously lying, she suffered from a case of mistaken identity.
Whelan published that theory in a Twitter thread for which there had been a big build up. Whelan had teased that there would be information exonerating Kavanaugh, that Ford may have been attacked but not by Kavanaugh. Whelan’s teases were widely shared.
Whelan’s Twitter thread purported to identify the house at which the attack likely took place, based on the descriptions in Ford’s letter, and a fellow student who was not Kavanaugh who lived at that house.
When we looked at the thread, we decided not to run it here or even to link to it. We were not persuaded. It seemed like a case of “correlation does not equate to causation.” More important, Whelan reached too far in identifying a specific person.
There was fierce criticism of Whelan not only from the left, but also from the right. In many ways, the theory seemed to damage Kavanaugh’s nomination, though Whelan denied that Kavanaugh’s team was involved at all.
Whelan quickly apologized for naming a specific person:
Note that Whelan did not apologize for his theory that Ford was attacked by someone other than Kavanaugh, but for naming that person who was a possible suspect.
End of the mistaken identity defense?
Hardly. Whelan planted a seed that eventually grew into the decisive factor in Kavanaugh’s confirmation.
When Ford testified, Rachel Mitchell, the Arizona prosecutor hired by Judiciary Committee Republicans to question Ford treated Ford gently. No aggressive questioning, but enough questioning to turn up so many inconsistencies and failures of memory as to lead to a reasonable conclusion that Ford suffered from serious emotional and memory problems unrelated to anything Brett Kavanaugh ever did.
Whelan’s theory that something happened to Ford but that Kavanaugh was not the perpetrator convinced the one person who needed to be convinced — Maine Senator Susan Collins.
In her floor speech announcing that she would vote to confirm Kavanaugh, Collins stated (emphasis added):
Susan Collins, as did Ed Whelan, chose the path of believing that Ford was sexually assaulted, just not by Kavanaugh. Unlike Whelan, Collins did not name a possible other suspect.
Collins repeated this point in post-vote interviews:
A
[ame="http://youtube.com/watch?v=7Xz8e4rnWt0"]Susan Collins: I believe Brett Kavanaugh - YouTube[/ame]
A
Dahlia Lithwick at liberal Slate, notes how the Whelan theory shifted the discussion:
Marshall, in the post linked by Lithwick above, saw Whelan’s theory as the most politically plausible:
I doubt that Whelan’s theory was “poll-tested” or “reverse engineered” or any such thing. Rather, it was the only politically viable theory available in a #MeToo environment in which women MUST be believed, but the evidence contradicted the belief against a specific accused.
Whether spontaneous or “built-in-a-lab,” Whelan ultimately prevailed not in naming a specific alternative perp, but in establishing that there might have been an alternative perp.