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Swine Flu Outbreak, a possible threat of just the flu?

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
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One thing that scientists agree on seems to be that they can't control disease. BIRD FLU was all over the headlines a couple years ago, its still floating around the world and mutating and people are dying from it, but generally in isolated areas. However now I see this about the SWINE FLU and it looks like it is taking its toll in Mexico but has spread into the US.

Anyone have any clue how to deal with a PANDEMIC?

Near as I can tell, the only thing to do is stay home, lock the doors, and don't come into contact with the public until a pandemic is over.
Outbreaks in Mexico, U.S. tied to new swine flu
Source of unique virus a mystery; CDC expects more cases

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30386163/

updated 8:38 a.m. AKT, Fri., April 24, 2009
The unique strain of swine flu found in seven people in California and Texas has been connected to the deadly flu that has broken out in Mexico, killing as many as 60 people, NBC News has confirmed.

The strain has never been seen before and is raising fears of a possible pandemic across North America.

The World Health Organization said it was concerned at what it called hundreds of "influenza-like" cases in Mexico, and also about the confirmed outbreak of the new strain of swine flu in the United States.

Mexico canceled classes for millions of children in its sprawling capital city and surrounding area on Friday after authorities noticed a higher number of flu-like deaths than normal in recent weeks.

"It is a virus that mutated from pigs and then at some point was transmitted to humans," Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova told the Televisa network.

He said tests proved that 16 died from the new strain, and about 44 other suspected cases still being were still being tested. Mexico's Public Health Department put the total number of people sickened at around 943 nationwide.
Cordova described a chilling new strain that had killed only people among the normally less-vulnerable young and mid-adult age range. One possibility is that the most vulnerable segments of the population — infants and the aged — had been vaccinated against other strains, and that those vaccines may be providing some protection​
.
Dr. Anne Schuchat of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said "at this point, we do not have any confirmations of swine influenza in Mexico" of the kind that sickened those in California and Texas.

The White House is closely following the outbreak and President Barack Obama has been informed, an administration official said on Friday.

U.S. health experts said Thursday they expect to find more cases of the swine flu as they check people who had contact with the California and Texas patients. All of the seven U.S. victims recovered from the flu.

Growing mystery
The U.S. cases are a growing medical mystery because it's unclear how they caught the virus. The CDC said none of the seven people were in contact with pigs, which is how people usually catch swine flu. And only a few were in contact with each other.

Still, health officials said it's not a cause for public alarm: The five in California and two in Texas all recovered, only one person was hospitalized and testing indicates some mainstream antiviral medications seem to work against the virus.

Schuchat said officials believe it can spread human-to-human, which is unusual for a swine flu virus.

The CDC is checking people who have been in contact with the seven confirmed cases, who all became ill between late March and mid-April.

Because of intensive searching, it's likely health officials will find additional cases, said Schuchat, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

Worldwide, seasonal flu kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people in an average year.

Unique combination virus
CDC officials detected a virus with a unique combination of gene segments that have not been seen in people or pigs before. The bug contains human virus, avian virus from North America and pig viruses from North America, Europe and Asia.

Health officials have seen mixes of bird, pig and human virus before, but never such an intercontinental combination with more than one pig virus in the mix.

Scientists keep a close eye on flu viruses that emerge from pigs. The animals are considered particularly susceptible to both avian and human viruses and a likely place where the kind of genetic reassortment can take place that might lead to a new form of pandemic flu, said Dr. John Treanor, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Rochester Medical Center.

The virus may be something completely new, or it may have been around for a while but was only detected now because of improved lab testing and disease surveillance, CDC officials said.

The virus was first detected in two children in southern California — a 10-year-old boy in San Diego County and a 9-year-old girl in neighboring Imperial County.

The cases were detected under unusual circumstances. One was seen at a Navy clinic that participates in a specialized disease detection network, and the other was caught through a specialized surveillance system set up in border communities, CDC officials said.

On Thursday, investigators said they had discovered five more cases. That includes a father and his teenage daughter in San Diego County, a 41-year-old woman in Imperial County who was the only person hospitalized, and two 16-year-old boys who are friends and live in Guadalupe County, Texas, near San Antonio.

Puzzling cases
The Texas cases are especially puzzling. One of the California cases — the 10-year-old boy — traveled to Texas early this month, but that was to Dallas, about 270 miles northeast of San Antonio. He did not travel to the San Antonio area, Schuchat said.

The two 16-year-olds had not traveled recently, Texas health officials said.

The swine flu's symptoms are like those of the regular flu, mostly involving fever, cough and sore throat, though some of the seven also experienced vomiting and diarrhea.
CDC are not calling it an outbreak, a term that suggests ongoing illnesses. It's not known if anyone is getting sick from the virus right now, CDC officials said.​
It's also not known if the seasonal flu vaccine that Americans got last fall and early this year protects against this type of virus. People should wash their hands and take other customary precautions, CDC officials said.

The Mexican government warned people not to shake hands or kiss when greeting or share food, glasses or cutlery for fear of contracting the flu.

Mexico City, one of the world's biggest cities and home to some 20 million people, was quieter than usual on Friday morning. Normally choking traffic was less chaotic in the absence of school buses and parents driving kids to school.

Many people waiting to enter subway stations had their faces covered with surgical masks.
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
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Well its not generating much interest here but the Centers for Disease Control seems to be taking notice.

Just the start of the story and a few highlights:
Fear, anger and fatalism over swine flu in Mexico

By ALEXANDRA OLSON, Associated Press Writer
30 mins ago

MEXICO CITY – The schools and museums are closed. Sold-out games between Mexico's most popular soccer teams are being played in empty stadiums. Health workers are ordering sickly passengers off subways and buses. And while bars and nightclubs filled up as usual, even some teenagers were dancing with surgical masks on.

Across this overcrowded capital of 20 million people, Mexicans are reacting with fatalism and confusion, anger and mounting fear at the idea that their city may be ground zero for a global epidemic of a new kind of flu — a strange mix of human, pig and bird viruses that has epidemiologists deeply concerned.

Tests show 20 people in Mexico have died of the new swine flu strain, and that 48 other deaths were probably due to the same strain. The caseload of those sickened has grown to 1,004 nationwide, Mexico's Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova said.

The same virus also sickened at least eight people in Texas and California, though there have been no deaths north of the border, puzzling experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Scientists have warned for years about the potential for a pandemic from viruses that mix genetic material from humans and animals. This outbreak is particularly worrisome because deaths have happened in at least four different regions of Mexico, and because the victims have not been vulnerable infants and elderly.

The most notorious flu pandemic, thought to have killed at least 40 million people worldwide in 1918-19, also first struck otherwise healthy young adults.
Authorities in the capital responded Friday with a sweeping shutdown of public places and events, urging people to stay home if they feel sick and to avoid shaking hands or kissing people on the cheeks​
.​

and
The outbreak even hit Mexico's beloved national pastime — two sold-out football matches Sunday — Pumas vs. Chivas and America vs. Tecos — will be played in empty stadiums to prevent the spread of the disease.

Health workers also staffed the international airport and bus and subway stations, handing out masks and trying to steer away anyone who appeared sick. Many commuters wore masks, but there weren't enough to go around.​

and
The World Health Organization convened an emergency expert panel to consider whether to declare the outbreak an international public health emergency — a step that could lead to travel advisories, trade restrictions and border closures. The agency's Director-General Margaret Chan arrived in Geneva on Saturday for the meeting.

The CDC and Canadian health officials were studying samples sent from Mexico, and some governments around Latin America said they would monitor passengers arriving on flights from Mexico.

But it may be too late to contain the outbreak, given how widespread the known cases are. If the confirmed deaths are the first signs of a pandemic, then cases are probably incubating around the world by now, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, a pandemic flu expert at the University of Minnesota.

In New York City, health officials say about 75 students at a Queens high school have fallen ill with flu-like symptoms and testing is under way to rule out that is the same strain of swine flu found in Mexico. Results could take several days.​

finally
No vaccine specifically protects against swine flu, and it is unclear how much protection current human flu vaccines might offer.
 

BoneheadNW

New member
With international travel so accessible to many, an outbreak anywhere in the world can be a concern for anyone else. Some people are more at risk due to their job (emergency or medical profession) or state of health. I am hoping that this latest outbreak will not develop into a larger health threat, but at the same time it doesn't hurt to be up to date on what is going on.
Bone
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
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Bone, that is why I posted it.

We, at least we Americans, seem to think that pandemics simply won't happen. The CDC, on the other hand, seems to provide all sorts of information that its not a matter of IF a pandemic will happen but rather WHEN it will happen.

I'm certainly not trying to be alarmist, but I do think that things like this bear watching and that people need to become aware that there are some REAL risks, small that they may be, there are some actual risks.
 

BoneheadNW

New member
I wholeheartedly agree that it is not IF but WHEN. People tend to think of these scenarios as stuff of terrorists and movies, but all it takes is one infected person on a plane to make a dozen infected people, who in tun infect more, etc. I am very surprised that this type of thing does not happen much more often.
Bone
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
I wholeheartedly agree that it is not IF but WHEN. People tend to think of these scenarios as stuff of terrorists and movies, but all it takes is one infected person on a plane to make a dozen infected people, who in tun infect more, etc. I am very surprised that this type of thing does not happen much more often.
Bone

Most of the comments I hear are things like "this isn't the dark ages we don't have to be afraid of the plague anymore" or comments that are confident that the "medical system in the US can stop it" and also that "it won't happen here" is common.
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
As of this morning the SWINE FLU has been confirmed in New York City.

100 students came down sick over the past several days, they were apparently infected by a few students who went to Mexico for Spring Break 2 weeks ago. None of the cases is life threatening.

It does seem odd that people are dying in Mexico from this, but the cases in New York and as far away as New Zealand are reporting it to be 'mild' in comparison.
 

XeVfTEUtaAqJHTqq

Master of Distraction
Staff member
SUPER Site Supporter
It does seem odd that people are dying in Mexico from this, but the cases in New York and as far away as New Zealand are reporting it to be 'mild' in comparison.

I'm pretty sure Mexico doesn't have the healthcare infrastructure to respond to this. In the US, NZ, and Canada they are treating patients with unidentified strains of the flu with anti-viral drugs and probably quarantining them.
 

XeVfTEUtaAqJHTqq

Master of Distraction
Staff member
SUPER Site Supporter
Interesting article:

http://www.fluidinfo.com/terry/2009/04/26/a-few-comments-on-pandemic-influenza/

Posted Sunday, April 26th, 2009 at 4:31 am under me.
A few comments on pandemic influenza

Here are some thoughts on the current swine influenza outbreak. These are just off the top of my head - I will undoubtedly think of more to say and add it in the comments or another posting. I apologize for the lack of links. I may come back and put some in.

I am both unqualified and qualified to make a few comments. I’m unqualified because I no longer work on influenza virus, because I’m not a virologist, because I have no inside information at all about the current outbreak. OTOH, I have some claim to know what I’m talking about. I worked on influenza virus as part of the Antigenic Cartography team at the University of Cambridge for a few years. We helped the WHO choose the H3N2 strain for the human vaccine. I’ve met the heads of the 4 international flu centers and even been in the WHO Situation Room in Geneva - a self-contained underground fortress. I spent a lot of time hanging out and talking to influenza virologists, many from the Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam. I was even an author on a Science paper on the global spread of epidemic influenza. Plus I’ve read all the books on the 1918 pandemic, which gives some (largely retrospective) insight into what happened back then, and perhaps some insight into what could be about to happen.

I also feel it’s good for someone like me to comment because I’m outside the flu world and the people inside it will be unlikely to say much. Flu is a highly political issue, to put it mildly. People working in the flu research community will be reluctant to speak up. So I should make it very clear that the comments below are just my opinions, and don’t represent anyone else’s thoughts.

I’ll try to just make a few points that I think are fairly sober - neither alarmist, nor dismissive - and to keep speculation out of it.

Apart from the details of the actual virus, the social side of a potential pandemic is extraordinarily interesting. Very few people will have really concrete information, and those that do will still only be making their best guesses.

In a pandemic, or something that looks like it might be one, wild rumors sweep through the population. That will happen on an unprecedented scale this time round.

The virus has, as far as we know, not spent much time in humans yet. Once it does, it will begin to adapt itself in unpredictable ways. It may become more virulent, or less virulent. It may develop resistance to the antivirals that are currently effective. Antiviral resistance has been a topic of great concern for at least a couple of years. The current virus is already known to be resistant to both amantadine and rimantadine, though oseltamivir is still effective.

If you ask virologists what the probability is that there will be another pandemic, they’ll tell you it’s 1.0. It’s just a matter of time until it happens. it’s like a non-zero probability state in a Markov process. When it does happen, what you do in the first phase is critically important. In the case of the avian influenza they would try to immediately cull all potentially infected birds, to stop the virus spreading and mutating and becoming more likely to enter the human population. When it did get into the human population, there would be swift action to isolate it, again to reduce the spread and the time the virus has to adapt. In the case of the avian influenzas in humans, there has been very little airborne transmission, and we’re lucky for that. But the current virus seems to already have that property, which is of great concern.

It would be a miracle if the current epidemic vaccine provided any protection against this virus. The human vaccine does contain a strain against H1N1, but that’s a strain picked based on sampled human viruses from many months ago. The epidemic vaccine is aimed at thwarting what’s known as antigenic drift - the relatively slow accumulation of point mutations in the virus. Pandemic strains arise through antigenic shift in which large chunks of viral genetic material, sometimes whole genes, are mixed between influenza viruses from different species. In a pandemic strain some of the genetic material and the proteins it expresses will very likely never have been seen by a human immune system.

The current WHO standard influenza test kit is not very useful in identifying this strain. They have issued instructions warning against false negatives.

Some aspects of the current outbreak are, to my mind, cause for great concern.

The acting-director of the CDC has already said: “There are things that we see that suggest that containment is not very likely.” That is a remarkably candid statement. I think it’s very clear that the cat is out of the bag. The question is how bad is it going to be. That’s impossible to tell right now, because we do not know what the virus will look like in the future, after it has had time to mutate and adapt inside humans.

In normal circumstances it takes about 6 months to make the world’s supply of epidemic vaccine. It’s a long and difficult process requiring tons of virus to be grown in chicken eggs. A canidate vaccine strain has to be identified, it has to be one that grows well in the chicken egg (including not killing the chick). Even under the high pressure of a potential pandemic, making a new vaccine is going to take months. By then the virus may have moved on (via mutation) and the vaccine’s efficacy may be less. Note that the 1918 virus killed tens of millions of people over a period much shorter than this.

Diverting the world’s influenza resources to covering a pandemic threat necessarily diverts them from work on epidemic vaccines. Epidemic flu kills roughly 0.5M people a year as it is. Not being able to pay due attention to the epidemic strains is also a bad thing.

The new virus has been popping up in various places in the US in the last days. I expect it will go global in the next couple of days, maximum. What’s to stop it? The virus has been isolated in several diverse areas and in many cases is genetically identical. The 1918 virus also popped up, in many cases inexplicably, across the US. The book America’s Forgotten Pandemic is worth a read.

There were 3 waves of the 1918/19 pandemic. The first was in summer of 1918 - very unusual, as influenza normally falls to extremely low rates during summer. Note that the current outbreak is also highly unseasonal.

The 1918 pandemic killed with a very unusual age pattern. Instead of peaks in just the very young and the very old, there was a W shape, with a huge number of young and healthy people who would not normally die from influenza. There are various conjectures as to the cause of this. The current virus is also killing young and healthy adults.

The social breakdown in a pandemic is extraordinary. If you read The Great Pandemic by John Barry, you’ll get some sense of it. America’s Forgotten Pandemic also helps give some idea of what it must have been like.

No-one knows just how many people died as a result of the 1918 pandemic. Estimates generally range between 40M and 100M, and have trended upwards over the years. Influenza is not the easiest to diagnose (hence the category ILI - influenza-like illnesses). It also strips the throat of protective epithelial cells, leaving you susceptible to opportunistic follow-on infections, such as pneumonia, which often do the killing.

No-one knows how bad another pandemic might be in terms of mortality. Low estimates are in the single digit millions. Someone from the WHO suggested a significantly higher number about 4 years ago in the context of avian influenza and that number was quickly retracted. Jeff Taubenberger, who was responsible for resurrecting and sequencing the 1918 virus (an extraordinary story, related in a couple of books) has published work saying 100M might be possible. No-one knows, and it depends on many factors, including the characteristics of the virus, how early it is detected, how easily it spreads, how virulent it is (obviously), the social measures taken to combat it, antiviral resistance, and many other factors.

I don’t think anyone knows how the balance between vastly increased medical knowledge and vastly increased national and international travel will play out. If this virus is not popping up all over the world within a week’s time, I’ll be surprised. Airports are already screening people arriving from Mexico, but I imagine it’s too late and it’s certainly not being done globally.

History dictates that you should probably not believe anything any politician says about pandemic influenza. There has been a strong tendency to downplay risks. All sorts of factors are at work in communicating with the public. You can be sure that everything officially said by the WHO or CDC has been very carefully vetted and considered. There’s no particular reason to believe anything else you hear, either :)

Facemasks have an interesting history, and have made it into law several times. In 1918 we didn’t even know what a virus was, let alone how tiny they are, so the gauze on the masks was likely totally ineffective.

In conclusion, I’d say that the thing is largely out of our hands for the time being. We’re going to have to wait and see what happens, and make our best guesses along the way.

The influenza people at the CDC and the other international labs are an amazing team of experts. They’ve been at this game for a very long time and they work extremely hard and generally get a bad rap. It’s no wonder flu is such a political issue, the responsibility is high and the tendency towards opaqueness is understandable. Despite all the expertise though, at bottom you have an extremely complex virus - much of whose behavior is unknown, especially in the case of antigenic shift, especially when it is so young, and especially when you don’t know what nearby mutational opportunities may exist for it in antigenic space - spreading in a vastly more complex environment (our bodies), and with us moving and interacting in odd ways in a complex and extremely interconnected world. It’s a wonder we know as much as we do, but in many ways we don’t know much at all.
 

muleman

Gone But Not Forgotten
GOLD Site Supporter
Sitting here watching the news and they are saying the CDC is releasing 25 million doses of anti-flu. This originated in Mexico and has been found in students in NY who took spring break there. If ever there was a need to tighten the borders it is now. Sounds like this will make drug wars small potatoes compared to diseases spread across our borders. I would not want to be a flight crew or cruise ship crew right now. As mentioned before the travel patterns of people can spread something rapidly. If they are so concerned you would think they would ban travel to Mexico and send troops to seal off the border in a hurry. But not to worry our government will protect us!
 

RNE228

Bronze Member
Site Supporter
I wholeheartedly agree that it is not IF but WHEN. People tend to think of these scenarios as stuff of terrorists and movies, but all it takes is one infected person on a plane to make a dozen infected people, who in tun infect more, etc. I am very surprised that this type of thing does not happen much more often.
Bone

Have you heard anything in your district regarding first responder/EMS precautions? I have not, yet.
 

bczoom

Super Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
I would not want to be a flight crew or cruise ship crew right now.
Thanks Bill... get the paranoia going (as I pack today for going to Florida for a week followed by a cruise to the Bahamas.)
 

pirate_girl

legendary ⚓
GOLD Site Supporter
There is an H1N1 human strain in this year’s shot, and all H1N1 flus are descendants of the 1918 pandemic strain. But flus pick up many mutations, and there will be no proof of protection until the C.D.C. can test stored blood serum containing flu shot antibodies against the new virus. Those tests are under way, said an expert who sent the C.D.C. his blood samples.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/world/27flu.html?_r=2

Personally, I am not in panic mode just yet.
All a person can do is take precautions.
 

Galvatron

Spock and Galvatron < one and the same
This may Answer some Questions you may well want to ask.....

http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/key_facts.htm



Swine Flu

What is Swine Influenza?
Swine Influenza (swine flu) is a respiratory disease of pigs caused by type A influenza virus that regularly causes outbreaks of influenza in pigs. Swine flu viruses cause high levels of illness and low death rates in pigs. Swine influenza viruses may circulate among swine throughout the year, but most outbreaks occur during the late fall and winter months similar to outbreaks in humans. The classical swine flu virus (an influenza type A H1N1 virus) was first isolated from a pig in 1930.

How many swine flu viruses are there?
Like all influenza viruses, swine flu viruses change constantly. Pigs can be infected by avian influenza and human influenza viruses as well as swine influenza viruses. When influenza viruses from different species infect pigs, the viruses can reassort (i.e. swap genes) and new viruses that are a mix of swine, human and/or avian influenza viruses can emerge. Over the years, different variations of swine flu viruses have emerged. At this time, there are four main influenza type A virus subtypes that have been isolated in pigs: H1N1, H1N2, H3N2, and H3N1. However, most of the recently isolated influenza viruses from pigs have been H1N1 viruses.
Swine Flu in Humans

Can humans catch swine flu?
Swine flu viruses do not normally infect humans. However, sporadic human infections with swine flu have occurred. Most commonly, these cases occur in persons with direct exposure to pigs (e.g. children near pigs at a fair or workers in the swine industry). In addition, there have been documented cases of one person spreading swine flu to others. For example, an outbreak of apparent swine flu infection in pigs in Wisconsin in 1988 resulted in multiple human infections, and, although no community outbreak resulted, there was antibody evidence of virus transmission from the patient to health care workers who had close contact with the patient.
How common is swine flu infection in humans?
In the past, CDC received reports of approximately one human swine influenza virus infection every one to two years in the U.S., but from December 2005 through February 2009, 12 cases of human infection with swine influenza have been reported.

What are the symptoms of swine flu in humans?
The symptoms of swine flu in people are expected to be similar to the symptoms of regular human seasonal influenza and include fever, lethargy, lack of appetite and coughing. Some people with swine flu also have reported runny nose, sore throat, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea.

Can people catch swine flu from eating pork?
No. Swine influenza viruses are not transmitted by food. You can not get swine influenza from eating pork or pork products. Eating properly handled and cooked pork and pork products is safe. Cooking pork to an internal temperature of 160°F kills the swine flu virus as it does other bacteria and viruses.

How does swine flu spread?
Influenza viruses can be directly transmitted from pigs to people and from people to pigs. Human infection with flu viruses from pigs are most likely to occur when people are in close proximity to infected pigs, such as in pig barns and livestock exhibits housing pigs at fairs. Human-to-human transmission of swine flu can also occur. This is thought to occur in the same way as seasonal flu occurs in people, which is mainly person-to-person transmission through coughing or sneezing of people infected with the influenza virus. People may become infected by touching something with flu viruses on it and then touching their mouth or nose.

What do we know about human-to-human spread of swine flu?
In September 1988, a previously healthy 32-year-old pregnant woman was hospitalized for pneumonia and died 8 days later. A swine H1N1 flu virus was detected. Four days before getting sick, the patient visited a county fair swine exhibition where there was widespread influenza-like illness among the swine.

In follow-up studies, 76% of swine exhibitors tested had antibody evidence of swine flu infection but no serious illnesses were detected among this group. Additional studies suggest that one to three health care personnel who had contact with the patient developed mild influenza-like illnesses with antibody evidence of swine flu infection.
How can human infections with swine influenza be diagnosed?
To diagnose swine influenza A infection, a respiratory specimen would generally need to be collected within the first 4 to 5 days of illness (when an infected person is most likely to be shedding virus). However, some persons, especially children, may shed virus for 10 days or longer. Identification as a swine flu influenza A virus requires sending the specimen to CDC for laboratory testing.

What medications are available to treat swine flu infections in humans?
There are four different antiviral drugs that are licensed for use in the US for the treatment of influenza: amantadine, rimantadine, oseltamivir and zanamivir. While most swine influenza viruses have been susceptible to all four drugs, the most recent swine influenza viruses isolated from humans are resistant to amantadine and rimantadine. At this time, CDC recommends the use of oseltamivir or zanamivir for the treatment and/or prevention of infection with swine influenza viruses.

What other examples of swine flu outbreaks are there?
Probably the most well known is an outbreak of swine flu among soldiers in Fort Dix, New Jersey in 1976. The virus caused disease with x-ray evidence of pneumonia in at least 4 soldiers and 1 death; all of these patients had previously been healthy. The virus was transmitted to close contacts in a basic training environment, with limited transmission outside the basic training group. The virus is thought to have circulated for a month and disappeared. The source of the virus, the exact time of its introduction into Fort Dix, and factors limiting its spread and duration are unknown. The Fort Dix outbreak may have been caused by introduction of an animal virus into a stressed human population in close contact in crowded facilities during the winter. The swine influenza A virus collected from a Fort Dix soldier was named A/New Jersey/76 (Hsw1N1).
Is the H1N1 swine flu virus the same as human H1N1 viruses?
No. The H1N1 swine flu viruses are antigenically very different from human H1N1 viruses and, therefore, vaccines for human seasonal flu would not provide protection from H1N1 swine flu viruses.
Swine Flu in Pigs

How does swine flu spread among pigs?
Swine flu viruses are thought to be spread mostly through close contact among pigs and possibly from contaminated objects moving between infected and uninfected pigs. Herds with continuous swine flu infections and herds that are vaccinated against swine flu may have sporadic disease, or may show only mild or no symptoms of infection.

What are signs of swine flu in pigs?
Signs of swine flu in pigs can include sudden onset of fever, depression, coughing (barking), discharge from the nose or eyes, sneezing, breathing difficulties, eye redness or inflammation, and going off feed.

How common is swine flu among pigs?
H1N1 and H3N2 swine flu viruses are endemic among pig populations in the United States and something that the industry deals with routinely. Outbreaks among pigs normally occur in colder weather months (late fall and winter) and sometimes with the introduction of new pigs into susceptible herds. Studies have shown that the swine flu H1N1 is common throughout pig populations worldwide, with 25 percent of animals showing antibody evidence of infection. In the U.S. studies have shown that 30 percent of the pig population has antibody evidence of having had H1N1 infection. More specifically, 51 percent of pigs in the north-central U.S. have been shown to have antibody evidence of infection with swine H1N1. Human infections with swine flu H1N1 viruses are rare. There is currently no way to differentiate antibody produced in response to flu vaccination in pigs from antibody made in response to pig infections with swine H1N1 influenza.

While H1N1 swine viruses have been known to circulate among pig populations since at least 1930, H3N2 influenza viruses did not begin circulating among US pigs until 1998. The H3N2 viruses initially were introduced into the pig population from humans. The current swine flu H3N2 viruses are closely related to human H3N2 viruses.

Is there a vaccine for swine flu?
Vaccines are available to be given to pigs to prevent swine influenza. There is no vaccine to protect humans from swine flu. The seasonal influenza vaccine will likely help provide partial protection against swine H3N2, but not swine H1N1 viruses.
 

muleman

Gone But Not Forgotten
GOLD Site Supporter
Thanks Bill... get the paranoia going (as I pack today for going to Florida for a week followed by a cruise to the Bahamas.)
Just trying to get you to watch EVERYBODY you come in contact with on your cruise!! Why in the world are you going south now? It is 86 degrees and I am calling it a day till the sun goes down. It is entirely too warm for me but perfect for growing germs.:yum::yum::yum:
 

rc2james

New member
Site Supporter
Oh My GOD! I may have been exposed to the swine flu!

I have never been to Mexico but last night, I ate a Mexican TV Dinner.

My lower digestive tract has been a real mess ever since. It is so bad that if I put a webcam in the toilet, it would look like a toothless old man spitting out a mouth full of chewing tobacco.

I’m positive this is one of the symptoms. :ermm:
diarrheaMediumWebview.jpg
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
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My daughter's school sent home a bunch of kids today with 'flu like' symptoms, 7 from her class alone. Very likely not the swine flu, probably just a normal seasonal flu. The school acted like it was the swine flu and didn't mess around.

My wife's school sent out a memo to all the teachers. It was quite the opposite message. It basically said there is no swine flu in our state and they'd 'watch' the situation.

The Chicago news (ABC affiliate) just announced that there are now suspected cases of Swine flu in Indiana.
 

pirate_girl

legendary ⚓
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Yikes Bob!
I'd be very careful, especially because of Melen's diabetes--but still I wouldn't panic very much.
Take care of you and yours.
Everyone take the standard precautions.
Seriously, I don't think there is any reason to get all panicky about this unless you are immunosuppresive, have a pre existing health condition, or are elderly and have very young children.
 

EastTexFrank

Well-known member
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What worries me, Ok, it doesn't worry me all that much, is what is going to happen if it does become a world wide pandemic and hits the Middle East. Any Muslims dying of it sure as heck aren't going to get into heaven with anything remotely related to a pig in their systems. Maybe that's the upside. :whistling:

I think that's called graveyard humor. :wink:

I think it's a little early to start to panic but it might be worthwhile to give your situation a little thought. I was talking to a friend today and he's starting to stockpile supplies so he can, as he puts it, drop off the face of the earth for at least 3 months. He is a little paranoid about such things. He has guns and thousands upon thousands of rounds of ammo stockpiled ever since Obama got elected but I think think most of the stuff he has left over from Y2K has passed its "use by" date. I might be able to pick up some of it cheap if he refreshes his supply. :wink:
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
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Yikes Bob!
I'd be very careful, especially because of Melen's diabetes--but still I wouldn't panic very much...

I dunno. I stay informed. No panic. Not even any worry, at least not yet. If this spreads and comes into our area (with our proximity to airports and international travel that is very likely) then I will do whatever needs to be done. But the probability is very high that the students at Mel's school were sick with SOMETHING and the school OVER reacted to the situation.

From what I can tell, those in more developed areas who catch this bug can be treated and cured. Those who have died likely did not seek medical care or were unable to get it. I'm not saying this is not going to get much worse because I believe it will get much worse, but what I am saying is that AT LEAST SO FAR it is not a big deal.

Pandemics are bad. This has potential to become one. But to what end? If people get sick and then get better with treatment then there is very little to worry about. If it mutates and lots and lots of people die, then its time to stay home for a few weeks, eat canned food, interact with the public as little as possible, and wait for this to blow over.
 

Glink

Active member
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Now that everybody on the F'ing planet is watching the swine flue; who is watching the F-ing bankers and their congressional minions?

Watch the head-fake.
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
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Now that everybody on the F'ing planet is watching the swine flue; who is watching the F-ing bankers and their congressional minions?

Watch the head-fake.
Well we have as the President's Chief of Staff MR. "NEVER LET A GOOD CRISIS GO TO WASTE" Rahm Emanuel who is sure to usher in someone, or some policy, that will advance socialism, evil, abortion, or regulation . . . or perhaps all of the above! No doubt that there will be a good 'head fake' with this opportunistic crisis and we'll get something, or someone else who is distasteful jammed down our throats :sad:
 

Galvatron

Spock and Galvatron < one and the same
Now that everybody on the F'ing planet is watching the swine flue; who is watching the F-ing bankers and their congressional minions?

Watch the head-fake.

Funny you say this as this was an article written in a daily paper here in the UK today...and knowing my Prime minister is right in the shit i believe it.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/columnists/fergus_shanahan/article2399198.ece

STAY calm. The Government have everything under control.

The Cabinet emergency committee is in permanent session in the bunker, fully masked, of course.

Didn’t you just guess Brown and Co would use the swine flu scare to go into full crisis mode, bundling bad headlines about the collapse of Labour off the front pages with a show of action?

But let’s hold for a moment. In Mexico City, teeming with 21million people, slightly more than 100 have died of this bug. That’s 0.0005 per cent, according to my calculator. Seven thousand have died there this year in drug wars alone. A few score cases have happened in America and around the world. And here, two people are being treated for swine flu in Scotland.

This is clearly a nasty bug and my sympathies go to those laid low.

But it’s treatable. So please keep it in perspective. Bear in mind the Government haven’t advised us to avoid Mexico yet. Flu outbreaks happen all the time, everywhere. People die of it all the time, too, more so if it’s winter and they’re old.

More to the point, why don’t Brown and Co show the same sense of urgency over the huge toll of people killed by bugs in filthy NHS hospitals? I don’t recall the COBRA crisis committee being summoned to investigate why 37,000 NHS patients have died of MRSA or C.diff on Labour’s watch.

I don’t recall the Cabinet going into session when 345 people died of C.diff in the care of the Maidstone NHS Trust, whose boss Rose Gibb waltzed off with a fortune and is suing for even more.

And what about the millions of Africans killed by malaria? Isn’t that a genuine world health emergency?

But a steward sneezes on a BA jet from Mexico and the country goes on a war footing.

Brown loves nothing more than the diversion of a good health scare. We’ve been here so many times.

Miracle

Avian flu was meant to wipe out every turkey on Earth. A couple of pheasants died in Norfolk.

SARS was meant to be the Grim Reaper of the 21st Century. Worldwide, only 774 deaths were linked to it. Then there were the twin evils of BSE and CJD, meant to turn millions of brains to mush. It never happened.

Advertisement

Foot-and-mouth was claimed to be mutating into human form. It didn’t.

AIDS was going to devastate Britain, but that too was vastly oversold. Listeria, dodgy eggs, poisoned spices — it’s a miracle there’s anyone still alive to tell the tale.

Swine flu may escalate here, but it is unlikely to kill as many as the NHS bumps off on dirty wards.

But the scare does give Brown a breather after his lousy Budget.

If he really wants the sympathy vote, I wouldn’t put it past him to start sneezing himself.

No doubt his sleazy aides have already suggested it.
 

pirate_girl

legendary ⚓
GOLD Site Supporter
Still Only One Swine Flu Case In Ohio


Updated: Tuesday, April 28, 2009 8:11 AM


COLUMBUS, Ohio — An Ohio elementary school is closed for the week as health officials work to contain the spread of swine flu, which has sickened a 9-year-old student.

Officials say a cleaning crew has sanitized doorknobs, desktops and telephones at Ely Elementary School in Elyria.

A spokesman for the Lorain County Emergency Management Agency says doctor's offices and hospitals in Elyria are being urged to isolate patients who have flu-like symptoms.

State health officials say lab tests confirm that the Ely Elementary third grader has the same deadly strain of swine flu that's suspected of killing 103 people in Mexico. The boy is recovering at home.

He and his family were recently in Mexico on vacation.

Officials in Wood County are also investigating a possible case of swine flu, but test results have not confirmed it is the virus. Serum from the patient has been sent to the CDC.

Key developments on swine flu outbreaks, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, World Health Organization, and government officials:

Deaths: 152, all in Mexico, 20 confirmed as swine flu and rest suspected.

Sickened: 1,995 people in Mexico got pneumonia but swine flu not yet confirmed. 50 confirmed in U.S., including 28 at one New York City school. Elsewhere, six confirmed in Canada; two confirmed in Scotland and seven suspected; 11 confirmed and 43 suspected in New Zealand; one confirmed and 17 suspected in Spain; one suspected in France; one confirmed in Israel.

U.S. states with cases: 28 in New York, 13 in California, six in Texas, two in Kansas and one in Ohio.

Safety measures in Mexico: All schools suspended until May 6. In Mexico City, surgical masks given to the public, venues closed and public events canceled. President assumed new powers to isolate infected people. World Bank loaning Mexico more than $200 million.

Safety measures in U.S: Public health emergency declared. Roughly 12 million doses of Tamiflu from federal stockpile to be delivered to states. Nonessential travel to Mexico discouraged. Travelers questioned at Mexico border. Some schools closed in New
York City, Texas, California, South Carolina and Ohio.

Safety measures worldwide: WHO raises alert to Phase 4 of 6, noting disease spreads easily but isn't pandemic. European Union
health commissioner urges Europeans to postpone nonessential travel to U.S. and Mexico. Hong Kong and South Korea warn against travel to parts of Mexico. Airports screen travelers from Mexico and United States. Some countries ban pork imports.

Economic effects: World stock markets fall as investors worry that outbreak could derail economic recovery, with airlines taking brunt of sell-off.

ODH and local health departments are working with health care providers and hospitals around the state to determine if there are other cases.

Recommendations from ODH and CDC include:

* Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.
* Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hand cleaners are also effective.
* Try to avoid close contact with sick people.
* If you get sick with influenza, see your doctor and CDC recommends that you stay home from work or school and limit contact with others to keep from infecting them. Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread this way.

http://www.onntv.com/live/content/onnnews/stories/2009/04/26/story_swine_flu.html?sid=102
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
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Well I just picked Melen up from school. Her 8th grade class is going home sick. Out of roughly 42 kids divided up between 2 classrooms, 75% of them are sick with flu like symptoms.

I spoke to her doctor. They are NOT worried. They said a common seasonal flu is in the area.

My daughter's class, along with the 8th graders from a couple other local schools, were on a religious retreat Friday/Saturday and its very likely something got spread around there???
 
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