• Please be sure to read the rules and adhere to them. Some banned members have complained that they are not spammers. But they spammed us. Some even tried to redirect our members to other forums. Duh. Be smart. Read the rules and adhere to them and we will all get along just fine. Cheers. :beer: Link to the rules: https://www.forumsforums.com/threads/forum-rules-info.2974/

Corona Virus spreading ... US official says no need to worry

waybomb

Well-known member
GOLD Site Supporter
On on another note, they also are dealing with the pig disease and it was reported thousands of chickens had to be culled because the chicken disease is back.
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
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On on another note, they also are dealing with the pig disease and it was reported thousands of chickens had to be culled because the chicken disease is back.

Swine Flu is now an international seasonal flu.

Novel Corona may become just another seasonal flu in the future but seems to be a realistic threat to the population today.
 

Melensdad

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Staff member
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Now there's 2 cruise ships under quarantine.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/05/asia/coronavirus-cruise-quarantines-intl-hnk/index.html

Don't ask google why cornflakes were invented.

And it looks like another cruise ship, this one in NEW JERSEY, may have passengers with Corona. Apparently 4 passengers were removed from the ship in port. Not sure if this ship is under quarantine yet. Not sure if there is any reason for those passengers to worry yet.

Four people on the Royal Caribbean cruise ship docked in New Jersey where dozens were screened for coronavirus were taken to Newark’s University Hospital “out of caution” Friday morning — as video shows medics loading passengers into waiting ambulances.

...

One of the four travelers that had come from China for the Caribbean cruise — and are now hospitalized — had a fever on the cruise, Bayonne Mayor Jimmy Davis told NBC New York.

The fever went away with Tylenol, he said.

Three others are under observation at the hospital, which has negative-pressure isolation rooms, ...​

FULL STORY AT NYPOST => https://nypost.com/2020/02/07/four-...hip-hospitalized-after-ship-docks-in-bayonne/


...............


On another note, with the exception of the handful of new cases added by China yesterday, why is it that China typically reports about 3000 new cases per day? Every day is the same, roughly 3000 cases. Is it possible that they only have the capacity to process tests for 3000 cases a day? So they report what they process not what is actually the case? Just a question. No answer.
 

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m1west

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And it looks like another cruise ship, this one in NEW JERSEY, may have passengers with Corona. Apparently 4 passengers were removed from the ship in port. Not sure if this ship is under quarantine yet. Not sure if there is any reason for those passengers to worry yet.



...............


On another note, with the exception of the handful of new cases added by China yesterday, why is it that China typically reports about 3000 new cases per day? Every day is the same, roughly 3000 cases. Is it possible that they only have the capacity to process tests for 3000 cases a day? So they report what they process not what is actually the case? Just a question. No answer.

What I think is happening is the Chinese are listing the majority of the people that have died as the cause of death being pneumonia which is the side effect of the corona virus. That would explain the strange reporting data.
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
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What I think is happening is the Chinese are listing the majority of the people that have died as the cause of death being pneumonia which is the side effect of the corona virus. That would explain the strange reporting data.

I would bet you are correct.
 

pixie

Well-known member
SUPER Site Supporter
If you read that article and a related one on that website, they suggest that having been vaccinated against SARS increases ones suseptibility to this virus.
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
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And yet again, China ups the number of infected by about 3000 people :hammer:

The US is holding steady at 12 cases within our borders. Although in Japan there are at least 8 US citizens with the virus that were on a cruise ship but transferred to hospitals.

There are clearly more cases popping up around the Asian nations but airlines fly into and out of those countries without concern. Japan seems to have a pretty good grip on their cases, many of which were identified on cruise ships and quickly hospitalized, with the remainder of the passengers quarantined on the ship. Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan all seem to be trying to contain things but the barn door may have swung too wide open?

Highlights from ZeroHedge => https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/more-400-million-people-lockdown-guangzhou-joins-quarantine
Summary:

  • Confirmed cases rise to just shy of 35K in China and 24 other countries, deaths surge by 86 to 722, set to surpass SARS total in hours; total number of people under observation jumps to an all time high of 189,660.
  • Suspected cases rose to 27,657 from 26,359 the day before, with 6,107 people in in serious/critical condition. Patients who have recovered jumped to 2,050,
  • 6,107 people are in serious/critical condition
  • Reporter says 'real' death toll could be closer to 20k
  • German scientists say coronavirus can survive for 9 days on surfaces
  • Chinese quarantine expanded to Guangzhou; 400 million now on lockdown
  • Singapore raises response level to Orange
  • Hong Kong confirms case No. 25
  • Death of Dr. Li stokes demands for more free speech in China
* * *

Update (2000 ET): After two days of declines in the number of "new cases" reported by China's National Health Commission, and the latest number of total infected in China coming in below JPMorgan's daily estimate - no really, to JPM the number of daily new infections is just like the jobs report: it either beats or it misses...


... Saturday, Feb 8 saw an unexpected reversal in the downward slope in new cases, and as the NHC reported moments ago, as of Feb 7, China reported a total of 34,546 cases, (higher than JPMorgan's base case forecast of 34,224, shown below)...


... an increase of 3,385 overnight, and the first rise in new cases in three days, suggesting any hopes that the pandemic had already peaked were just crushed.



Adding the 365 international cases, means that as of Saturday, there were a total of 34,911 global cases, resulting in 724 deaths - an increase of 86 on the day, the biggest one day rises since the pandemic started - and a mortality rate of 2.1%, which is where it has been stuck for the past ten days. At this rate of increase in officially reported (which is vastly different from the actual true number) cases, the coronavirus pandemic will claim more lives than SARS in under 24 hours.

Here one surprising observation: in the past two weeks what was initially an exponential curve in the number of new cases, has quietly shifted into a quadratic one, where the number of new cases is largely unchanged day after day, almost as if China wants to represent a higher number to preserve some credibility, but nowhere near as high as what it really is if the disease followed the traditional exponential progression.

Some other observations: the number of suspected cases rose to 27,657 from 26,359 the day before, with 6,107 people in in serious/critical condition. And while a record 722 have died - just 50 shy of the SARS record in 2003 - the number of those who have recovered from the diseases is now 2,050, with 25 total countries reporting cases.

And speaking of reversals, there was another notable one in the number of people receiving medical attention in China, because after sliding dramatically and even shrinking today, on Saturday the number of people under observation once again jumped, rising to 3,615 after a drop of 309 the day before.​

One final point about all of the above: China is notorious about manipulating all of its economic data, why on earth would it publish accurate pandemic data, especially when it has repeatedly refused the presence of foreign observes in its fight to contain the deadly virus. As such, readers can simply ignore all of the above Chinese "goalseeks" and even Bloomberg notes that "total deaths may be far higher, given reports of an overwhelmed health system in Hubei, central China."

Looking ahead, JPMorgan predicts that the epidemic will peak in 1.5 months, i.e., by mid-March, at which point the total infected people will grow to 85K.



* * *

Update: (1500ET): When the dust has settled and the novel coronavirus has finally died out, we can't imagine how the World Health Organization will manage to revive its reputation.

After repeatedly defending China as a beacon of "transparency" and model for other emerging economies, the death of Dr. Li stands as a rebuke to WHO head Dr. Tedros, who has kowtowed to China at every turn.

Johns Hopkins link to their outbreak map => https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 

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pixie

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I think one of the scariest things I've read is the Englishman on a cruise ship who tested positive but had no symptoms.
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
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There is now an American death reported by the New York Times.

A woman who was 60 years old, living in Wuhan, with other underlying heath issues.

She chose not to evacuate on one of the American evacuation flights.

Few details about the American, who died on Thursday, were immediately available. According to the United States Embassy in Beijing, the person was 60 years old and died at Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan, the inland metropolis at the center of the epidemic. Two people familiar with the matter said the person was a woman and had underlying health conditions.


It should be noted that ALL of the American cases (12 of them) that are inside the United States are expected to recover. Some have already been released from the hospital.
 

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m1west

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GOLD Site Supporter

My wife is Chinese from China, I would bet there are few people on this forum that hate the Chinese government more than she does or the dis like of Democrats in this country trying to emulate the Chinese government. Her last trip there ( September ) on her return said that the country is looking like when Mao was in power, political signs and slogans everywhere. There is nothing that they are not capable of to stay in power. Marty
 

Melensdad

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Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
It is not contained

It was never contained

China has been lying

The W.H.O. has lost credibility

Crematoriums are burning bodies in Wuhan around the clock to the point there is now a human organic smog visible by satellite.

Chinese exiles claim 50,000+ dead. A source I have says even more.

Mortality may be closer to 5%

The US government is investigating the rumor the virus is man made

Still the official numbers remain low.
 

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Melensdad

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UK enacts special powers over citizens: https://www.breitbart.com/europe/20...d-imminent-threat-activates-emergency-powers/

UK Declares Coronavirus ‘Serious and Imminent Threat’, Activates Emergency Powers
Oliver JJ Lane10 Feb 2020

The British government has declared Coronavirus a “serious and imminent threat”, a classification which gives the secretary of state for health emergency powers to detain people suspected of being infected, as four more cases emerge.

Until now, the roughly 250 Britons quarantined at two hospitals after arriving back into the United Kingdom from China have been in isolation voluntarily on the advice of the government. But With the declaration “that the incidence or transmission of novel Coronavirus constitutes a serious and imminent threat to public health”, the hospitals in the UK become legally recognised as “isolation” areas, the Department of Health said in a statement.

This means the government can now keep people in isolation
“for their own safety”, even if it is against their will, a spokesman for the department said.

State broadcaster the BBC reports this change in stance from the government came as one individual in the Wirral quarantine hospital was planning to leave against the advice of doctors before his two week incubation period isolation was complete. The Secretary of State for Health Matt Hancock declaring Coronavirus a “serious and imminent threat” permits the government to detail that individual and others to prevent the spread of the disease.

...

Seven of these cases so far have been infected by one person, the eight patient who has been dubbed a “super spreader”. The so-called super spreader is a UK businessman who caught Coronavirus in Singapore before passing it on to seven other people on a ski holiday in France before returning to the United Kingdom, at which point he began to show symptoms....






The news just gets worse and worse but it seem to be back page and alternate source coverage of the story. All the mainstream sources are missing the story or simply parroting the official Chinese numbers.

At least one of every two instances of human-to-human transmission of the new coronavirus is believed to occur while the first patient is not yet showing symptoms, according to an estimate by a group of Japanese university researchers.

Based on its determination, the team, headed by Hokkaido University professor Hiroshi Nishiura, has called for preventive measures as well as reinforcing the medical care system against a potential sharp rise in coronavirus patients, rather than focusing exclusively on isolation as a way to contain the disease.

According to the estimate based on 26 human-to-human infection cases released by six countries such as China, Thailand and the United States, the timing of the secondary infection was shorter than previously thought.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...-contain-outbreak-diamond-princess-passengers
 

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Melensdad

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Of course California would screw up the quarantine :boxing:

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/story/2020-02-10/san-diego-county-has-firt

San Diego County’s first coronavirus case mistakenly released from hospital
Infected patient was cleared by CDC, then returned to UC San Diego Health

A botched test result allowed an evacuee infected with the coronavirus to leave a San Diego hospital Monday after initially being told by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that they were in the clear.

The situation is detailed in a brief statement released by UC San Diego Health Monday evening, which says that all four quarantine patients admitted to its isolation units last week were discharged back to quarantine quarters at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar after the CDC shared with caregivers that coronavirus tests came back negative.

“This morning, CDC officials advised San Diego (County) Public Health that further testing revealed that one of the four patients tested positive for (novel coronavirus),” the UCSD statement said. “The confirmed positive patient was returned to UC San Diego Health for observation and isolation until cleared by the CDC for release.”

The university said that it also has received another patient with possible coronavirus symptoms, bringing the total hospitalized out of Miramar quarantine to eight.

The two patients currently in isolation units at UCSD facilities are said to be “doing well” with “minimal symptoms.”

It was not immediately clear what route the infected evacuee took out of the university hospital nor which of UCSD’s two main medical centers was involved. It also was not clear how long the infected evacuee was circulating inside quarantine after being told they tested negative. CDC, university and county health officials were not immediately available Monday night to comment.

...

In the United States, the CDC reported a dozen cases Monday, but that number does not appear to include the new case in San Diego. As of Feb. 2, the California Department of Public Health has confirmed a total of six cases in the state: two in Santa Clara County, two in San Benito County, one in Los Angeles County and one in Orange County.
 

Melensdad

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Staff member
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The good news is there is no outbreak in North America. Canada is holding steady and the US is at 13 cases. There also seems to be strong evidence that the virus does not seem to be fatal to children through young adults if they are otherwise healthy.

The bad news is there is a cruise ship that seems to be a virus incubator, the whole of mainland China seems to be getting far worse, and many nations with close travel proximity to China have zero ability to deal with an outbreak. 80% of the fatalities are patients aged 60 and older and most of those have other conditions that contributed to their issues.

There is another cruise ship which is not being allowed to dock in any nation. It is off the coast of Thailand or possibly Vietnam now. There is ZERO evidence of any Coronavirus infection on the ship at this time but it is still not allowed to get to shore. There is now a serious concern the ship will run out of food. The W.H.O. may end up sending a crew out to the ship to test for Corona.

A prominent UK researcher suggests 60% of the world will become infected and while some people suggest infections will peak in March/April others are less optimistic. The W.H.O. says the world is 18 months away from a vaccine.

The map below suggests that Japan is in trouble, but the REALITY SEEMS TO BE that the cases in Japan are all in isolation and all arrived on cruise ships. South Korea also seems to have contained it's corona cases. India, Thailand and a few other nations, however, pose serious concerns as there seems to be no serious infrastructure to track contacts and travel restrictions are currently non-existent.
 

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XeVfTEUtaAqJHTqq

Master of Distraction
Staff member
SUPER Site Supporter
If (when) this hits India and Africa it will be bad for them. They don't have the authoritarian regimes that can impose martial law and attempt to control it like China did.

It's gonna spread ... like a virus.
 

m1west

Well-known member
GOLD Site Supporter
I think here in the US if nothing starts happening here in another 30 days we should be OK. Things that can go wrong are
1- if it would get into South America and explodes then comes here to the sanctuary cities.
2- if someone here that has been out of the country and cleared then comes down sick after passing it around there community for a period of time.
3- We don't keep the travel ban with China long enough
4- it mutates into something really deadly before it is under control.
5- everything else I didn't think of
Marty
 

Melensdad

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Staff member
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Boom. And the numbers exploded.

15,000 new cases
 

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Bannedjoe

Well-known member
I thought this was interesting...

I went into homedopes today for a 7 inch grinder, and concrete grinding pad.
decided it would be a good idea to get a few simple dust masks.

The entire display was ravaged, with only the really high dollar ones available.

I made mention of it to the cashier.

She said buses full of Chinese tourists had been stopping to buy up the supplies to send them back home.
 

mak2

Active member
I thought this was interesting...

I went into homedopes today for a 7 inch grinder, and concrete grinding pad.
decided it would be a good idea to get a few simple dust masks.

The entire display was ravaged, with only the really high dollar ones available.

I made mention of it to the cashier.

She said buses full of Chinese tourists had been stopping to buy up the supplies to send them back home.

I just want to make sure I understand what you are saying. Are there really busloads of Chinese tourists going to home depots and buying up all the dust mask? Is that really what you are saying? but they could not afford the expensive ones?
 

Bannedjoe

Well-known member
I just want to make sure I understand what you are saying. Are there really busloads of Chinese tourists going to home depots and buying up all the dust mask? Is that really what you are saying? but they could not afford the expensive ones?

There are many tour busses that come through the area going between Phx and Las Vegas.
It's not unusual to see a busload of Japanese, Chinese, or really any group of people gathered by ethnicity climb off a tour bus anywhere along the route.

They are quite often seen stopping for food and a chance to blow up* some poor establishments' restrooms.

I should have taken a picture, dammit, but it didn't occur to me at the time.
The mask area was probably 4 maybe even 5 or six shelves high, and at least 5 or 8 feet wide.
All the singles, and the multipacks of the simple painting and dust masks were just gone!
The only ones left were the ones that ran like $5ea with the little flap built in the front, and the much higher end ones with replaceable filters that looked more like gas masks.
They were running like $30 or so and on up, there were plenty of those.

I was talking with my brother in Santa Barbara last night about it.
His teenage son just had nose surgery, and I guess they suggested some dust masks for him.
My brother said he experienced the same thing over there, not a dust mask to be found.


*Blow up
Completely trash
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
So this hits close to home. Highland, Indiana. I lived there for a decade. I lived in the adjacent town for 2 decades. I now live about 20 miles south, as Highland is in the north part of the county and my family moved to the rural south part of the county.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/life...0200212-6nl3ls2ozzahbonl2j3ftbqxwi-story.html

Northwest Indiana couple quarantine themselves over fears of coronavirus after trip to China. ‘What I just experienced? I never want to experience it here’


In China, Ken Zurek of Northwest Indiana saw the disruption of the novel coronavirus — bustling cities turned to ghost towns, businesses shuttered, citizens confined to their homes, a world on pause in fear of a quickly-spreading virus.

“What I just experienced? I never want to experience it here,” said Zurek, 63, a concrete business owner who traveled last month to China with his wife, Annie, 60, to visit her family and meet their new baby granddaughter. After learning of the virus and cutting their visit short to return home after 10 days, the Zureks decided to quarantine themselves in their Highland, Indiana, home for about two weeks even though they haven’t shown any signs of the virus, like fever and cough.

The self-quarantine — not ordered by health professionals — is winding down and the Zureks, as well as their family back in China, all have remained healthy, he said.

Ken Zurek said he took the precaution to be extra careful after he saw the devastation of the virus in China. He said he didn’t want to be the cause of any illness in the United States. “I didn’t want to be the start of that domino effect.”

The couple planned to spend about four weeks in China, mostly in Chongqing, where Annie Zurek’s family lives and is about 500 miles from Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak. News of the coronavirus had just begun to break in the United States when the couple arrived in China on Jan. 19, Ken Zurek said, so they didn’t know a virus similar to SARS and MERS had started to spread.

Soon after they arrived, they learned of the virus and noticed its effect, he said. At first they saw fewer people on the streets than normal, some wearing face masks. Within a couple days, nearly everyone donned masks and streets that would normally be packed with people shoulder to shoulder, were empty, Zurek said.

“Usually it’s like New York City … people are everywhere,” he said. “When you take bus ... you never have a seat on the bus. It’s always packed. But we got to see a ghost town, no doubt about it.”

Soon the only open businesses in the city were grocery stores and pharmacies, and everyone stayed indoors, Zurek said. Masks were hard to find, but their family had a supply.

While inside, Zurek said he and his wife felt safe, and were happy to spend time with family and their new granddaughter. But they also constantly sought out news sources to read the tally of those infected, as well as those dead from the virus.

“My biggest fear was leaving my safe zone,” he said, especially being in the Chongqing airport, which he said could be a route for those headed to or leaving Wuhan, where the virus started.

The couple decided they should leave China while they could, anticipating the United States would eventually restrict or halt flights coming from the country. But the only flight Zurek could find was for early February, which he thought might be too late. And when he’d try to call the airlines, he couldn’t get through and the websites would crash, jammed with traffic.

“Every day my wife would tell me, ‘We’ve got to leave early. This is going to get bad,’” he said. Because Annie Zurek is not an American citizen and instead has a green card, she wasn’t able to get a flight arranged by the State Department to return to the U.S., Ken Zurek said, and he didn’t want to go home without her.

When they woke up the morning of Jan. 29, Zurek said his wife told him to leave while he could, and she would stay behind. “I said, ‘No. We came here together; we’ll leave together.’”

“This was the only time I was really scared,” Zurek added. “At that point I really realized I could die here.”

Zurek called his sister, who was staying at the couple’s home, watching their cat, and she was able to get through to the airlines and then called him back with the airline representative also on the phone.

The airline representative told him “‘if you can get to the airport in two hours, you have the last two seats,’” Zurek said. “We packed so fast.”

At the airport, everyone wore masks, he said. Inside the plane, flight attendants and the pilot also donned masks.

Zurek said he didn’t see any screening for fever or symptoms once they arrived at O’Hare. “We walked right out the airport exit.”

At that point, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had already begun screening passengers at several airports, including O’Hare, but only for travelers from areas closer to the epicenter of the outbreak in China.

Zurek said he and his wife continued to wear masks, including during their Uber ride, until they arrived home, and haven’t left their home since their return.

He said he contacted state and local health departments in Indiana, and reported where they were in China, and that they have shown no symptoms. Officials told him they didn’t need to remain home, but the couple decided to be “overly cautious,” Zurek said.

STORY CONTINUES AT THE LINK ABOVE



China is grinding to a total economic halt.

Numerous media sources show the cities, each with 5 to 15 million residents, resemble ghost towns with people confined ... or confining themselves... to their apartments. Businesses closed. Transportation unused. Factories shuttered.

Their economy has taken a serious hit and its about to hit the rest of the world.

Full story, with graphs and charts => https://www.zerohedge.com/economics...d-property-sales-traffic-all-approaching-zero

China Is Disintegrating: Steel Demand, Property Sales, Traffic All Approaching Zero

In our ongoing attempts to glean some objective insight into what is actually happening "on the ground" in the notoriously opaque China, whose economy has been hammered by the Coronavirus epidemic, yesterday we showed several "alternative" economic indicators such as real-time measurements of air pollution (a proxy for industrial output), daily coal consumption (a proxy for electricity usage and manufacturing) and traffic congestion levels (a proxy for commerce and mobility), before concluding that China's economy appears to have ground to a halt.

That conclusion was cemented after looking at some other real-time charts which suggest that there is a very high probability that China's GDP in Q1 will not only flatline, but crater deep in the red for one simple reason: there is no economic activity taking place whatsoever.

We start with China's infrastructure and fixed asset investment, which until recently accounted for the bulk of Chinese GDP. As Goldman writes in an overnight report, in the Feb 7-13 week, steel apparent demand is down a whopping 40%, but that's only because flat steel is down "only" 12% Y/Y as some car plants have ordered their employee to return to work (likely against their will as the epidemic still rages).

However, it is the far more important - for China's GDP - construction steel sector where apparent demand has literally hit the bottom of the chart, down an unprecedented 88% Y/Y or as Goldman puts it, "construction steel demand is approaching zero."

But wait, there's more...

Time to buy some food, buy some meds, buy some disinfectants, wait it out?


And in Europe, where there is much more cross travel we see the first death. This one of a Chinese tourist who brought the virus with him. No clue how many people he may have infected.

ABC News => https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireS...ource_4380645_2_heads_hero_live_headlines_hed

France announces 1st death in Europe of virus patient

PARIS -- France's health minister has announced the first coronavirus death in Europe.

Minister Agnes Buzyn says Saturday that "I was informed last night of the death of an 80-year-old patient who had been hospitalized ... since Jan. 25."

The patient, a Chinese tourist from the province of Hubei, had a lung infection caused by the COVID-19 virus. He arrived in France on Jan. 16, then was hospitalized on Jan. 25 under strict isolation measures. His condition deteriorated rapidly.

His daughter was also hospitalized but authorities say she is expected to recover...
 

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