And you just couldn't stop yourself from bringing up the plague right Bob, now look what you have done.
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Corona Virus spreading ... US official says no need to worry
- Thread starter Melensdad
- Start date
And you just couldn't stop yourself from bringing up the plague right Bob, now look what you have done.
Got my covid test results back.
And you just couldn't stop yourself from bringing up the plague right Bob, now look what you have done.
Is China becoming a giant petri dish??
I've been saying from early in this thread, it is not about death counts.
Here is the Republican Governor Tate Reeves from Mississippi, in an interesting Tweet storm about Covid and the concept of HERD IMMUNITY. I believe some members here have suggested that we need to spread this disease around to get to herd immunity.
For ease, I'm just posting the content below. But if you want to see the actual Twitter feed it is here ==> https://twitter.com/tatereeves/status/1282783825219682304
Here is the Republican Governor Tate Reeves from Mississippi, in an interesting Tweet storm about Covid and the concept of HERD IMMUNITY. I believe some members here have suggested that we need to spread this disease around to get to herd immunity.
For ease, I'm just posting the content below. But if you want to see the actual Twitter feed it is here ==> https://twitter.com/tatereeves/status/1282783825219682304
1) "Let's talk about herd immunity. I've listened to some people argue that the rapid spread of cases is a good thing, and we need to reach herd immunity in Mississippi and elsewhere to survive. I'm not a health care expert by any means, but I am a math guy. And I have thoughts:"
2) "The experts say we need 70-80% of the population to get COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity. Let's assume they're wrong (it's certainly possible, they have been before.) Let's assume they're being way overly cautious and we actually only need 40% infection for herd immunity."
close dialog
3) "In Mississippi, our population is 3 million. We've had 36,680 cases so far. We'd need 1.2 MILLION infections to achieve that hypothetical 40% threshold. (Remember, experts say it's double that.)"
4) "Over the last two weeks, our hospital system has started to become stressed to the point of pain. We are seeing the early signs and effects of it becoming overwhelmed. We had to suspend elective surgeries again."
5) "On our worst day of new cases, we had just over 1,000. It has typically been between 700-900 during this most aggressive time. To get to 40% infections, we'd need 3,187 new cases every day for a full year from today. We would need to TRIPLE our worst day -- every day -- for a year."
6) "I'm not one of these guys that immediately dismisses any idea that challenges the expert status quo talking points. I'm pretty skeptical by nature. That's healthy. But herd immunity is not anything like a realistic solution in the short or mid-term. I wish it was."
7) "Unless you're willing to go without hospitals after a car wreck or heart attack, we need a different approach. Right now, despite mixed messages at the beginning, it seems like masks are the best bet. They're a hell of a lot better than widespread shut downs. Please wear one!"
2) "The experts say we need 70-80% of the population to get COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity. Let's assume they're wrong (it's certainly possible, they have been before.) Let's assume they're being way overly cautious and we actually only need 40% infection for herd immunity."
close dialog
3) "In Mississippi, our population is 3 million. We've had 36,680 cases so far. We'd need 1.2 MILLION infections to achieve that hypothetical 40% threshold. (Remember, experts say it's double that.)"
4) "Over the last two weeks, our hospital system has started to become stressed to the point of pain. We are seeing the early signs and effects of it becoming overwhelmed. We had to suspend elective surgeries again."
5) "On our worst day of new cases, we had just over 1,000. It has typically been between 700-900 during this most aggressive time. To get to 40% infections, we'd need 3,187 new cases every day for a full year from today. We would need to TRIPLE our worst day -- every day -- for a year."
6) "I'm not one of these guys that immediately dismisses any idea that challenges the expert status quo talking points. I'm pretty skeptical by nature. That's healthy. But herd immunity is not anything like a realistic solution in the short or mid-term. I wish it was."
7) "Unless you're willing to go without hospitals after a car wreck or heart attack, we need a different approach. Right now, despite mixed messages at the beginning, it seems like masks are the best bet. They're a hell of a lot better than widespread shut downs. Please wear one!"
That's GREAT news!!!!!!
GOOD!
Please, I beg you, stay that way. Be careful.
80 staff members in all.
Tests came back negative.
Yes.
Several of my old friends from the Delphos facility informed me today, they also had every single one come back negative.
Congratulations!
You’re good to go!
Jim, sending you and Doc the unedited test results.
Just in case someone doubts it.
Lol
Bob, I absolutely agree with the Governor. I'm an engineer and also a math guy. I ran a very similar exercise for the State of Texas with 29 million population and came to the conclusion that I'll probably be wearing a mask until the day that I die. I'll also throw something else in here, the idea of "herd immunity' is a totally unproven concept. Nobody knows if such a thing actually exists and yet, that is what we are striving for. If it does exist, how long does it last, a lifetime a few years or a few months? We don't know but that is what we are going all in on. We'll see.
When Texas started to open up I watched the people in our little town completely abandon all precautions, no masks, no social distancing, partying hearty over memorial Day and July 4th and posting it all on Facebook. We're starting to pay for it now. There's been a big spike in the number of cases and probably more to come. If that's what they want to do, fair enough, but it just doesn't affect them. It affects everyone they come in contact with. I know a couple of people who are already regretting their actions but it's too late.
one part was left out. Keeping elderly and high risk people isolated while the herd gets immune so to not overwhelm the system.
Not omitted, he just posted raw numbers to illustrate the factual points.
Dig into the herd immunity articles, it is very unlikely to achieve with this virus. Even with the small percentage of the population that is currently infected the system is showing signs of being overwhelmed in parts of Florida, Texas, Arizona, California right now. ICU beds are full in many hospitals and testing supplies are running out
And this has been one of the points all along while many people seem to focus only on the death counts, very few focus on the toll to the hospital system.
Clearly the disease overwhelms systems in different cities and regions at different times. We live in a large nation. Hospitals systems get overwhelmed at different times. The hospitals in Green Bay, WI and Erie, PA may have lots of capacity at the moment, but Orlando, FL and Houston, TX are under severe pressure. At one point Houston was essentially virus free and New Orleans, LA was over capacity. That is all due to the size of this nation.
But looking back at former hotspots, Indianapolis was an early hotspot and it seems like Indianapolis, and indeed much of northern Indiana is now seeing increasingly growing cases. The state of Indiana is now approaching its prior PEAK numbers. Other former hotspots are seeing similar issues. So clearly the virus did not peak in Indiana and then go away. It was simply contained for a while and now we've taken the restrictions off and it is back to doing what viruses do. Our governor is maintaining the state, at 2 week intervals, on hold with some restrictions because our cases are growing, rapidly.
The math on this is not all that difficult.
People are using incomplete data to try to prove "its just like the flu" and other similar things.
From the standpoint of spread, it is just like any other virus, it spreads. But from the standpoint of putting fairly large numbers of people into hospital beds it is far worse than the flu. From the standpoint of deaths, time will tell, perhaps it won't be as bad as the flu. We know it kills off elderly. We know it kills off those with preexisting conditions. We still do not know all the long term complications from this but reports are now showing lung and cardiac issues may linger on for those who have recovered.
I'm not trying to scare anyone. Just tossing out what we know and what we don't know.
We do know that masks work, despite the fact that many people use illogic and rare exceptions to justify their objections.
Bob, you certainly aren't scaring me.
Perhaps if I'd been living in a huge city, then maybe I would have been from the beginning of this "pandemic".
I will say it until I'm blue in the face;
Back in January/February many of us at work, in this community, this part of Ohio think the virus has already been here.
We were quarantined in our back unit for 3 weeks, then the news about covid 19 began to be all the news, all the reason to be frightened and cautious.
Looking back, we are still saying it's BEEN here.
We had 1 resident sent to the hospital in, I believe it was late May, under the suspicion of omg! I hope he doesn't have IT.
He did not.
It was lower lobe pneumonia.
Since the end of February, aside from that incident not one single person in our facility has been sick with an upper respiratory, intestinal bug or anything else for that matter.
I give credit to the wearing of masks as we have been since, and practicing all precaution measures both at work, home and out and about.
We've kept our people safe, did indeed flatten the curve and possibly saved many lives.
I still have an opinion on the panic concerning it all, and just how serious it should be taken up to this very day.
That's about all I care to say about it.
Perhaps if I'd been living in a huge city, then maybe I would have been from the beginning of this "pandemic".
I will say it until I'm blue in the face;
Back in January/February many of us at work, in this community, this part of Ohio think the virus has already been here.
We were quarantined in our back unit for 3 weeks, then the news about covid 19 began to be all the news, all the reason to be frightened and cautious.
Looking back, we are still saying it's BEEN here.
We had 1 resident sent to the hospital in, I believe it was late May, under the suspicion of omg! I hope he doesn't have IT.
He did not.
It was lower lobe pneumonia.
Since the end of February, aside from that incident not one single person in our facility has been sick with an upper respiratory, intestinal bug or anything else for that matter.
I give credit to the wearing of masks as we have been since, and practicing all precaution measures both at work, home and out and about.
We've kept our people safe, did indeed flatten the curve and possibly saved many lives.
I still have an opinion on the panic concerning it all, and just how serious it should be taken up to this very day.
That's about all I care to say about it.
Yup!
The cool thing is you can get a serology test and have an answer- provided the antibodies haven’t already worn off. My wife got tested, no antibodies. I was a little disappointed, it would have been nice to know it came and went without complications.
when you change the input you change the math.
1- up to 80% of people infected are asymptomatic or have light symptoms
2- I don't know about everywhere else but around here the only people getting tested are health care and people that went to the hospital.
3- that suggests that for everyone tested there could be 8 others that had it and were not tested.
4- that calculation suggests that there're a whole lot more people out there that have had it already.
5- there are emerging therapeutics that have shown good results in other countries, Singapore and Japan come to mind. Those drugs should be used here but are not due to politics.
6- politics are effecting the reporting of positive cases, in some areas up to 10X
7- Bottom line is the experts have no idea how many have been infected and neither do I. Health car professionals are only concerned about health and not the whole picture.But staying home and doing nothing while the whole country is on a trajectory to ruin is not a plan.
Lots of hypothetical but very little fact.
I'd like to see some sources for some of these.
As for therapeutics, I've certainly stated, and cited, where we are using different treatments and they are reducing deaths, but as for the greatest success, I believe those may be coming out of Taiwan.
I will give some back up, they will be screen shots as my computer skills are still under development. And yes Taiwan is one of those countries.
This is probably the 3rd or 4th report showing that the early Hydroxychloroquine tests were wrong.
That said, this is very good news, but it also is not a cure. Its a treatment that helps some people.
There are other treatments that are not cures, they are also all good news and are all underreported, very probably because of politics. It is a shame that politics is taking such a large role in the discussion of a disease.
I'd also note that several of the treatments are VERY INEXPENSIVE DRUGS that have been around for quite some time and available in generic form. I suspect that MONEY has as much to do with what we hear as politics.
There are many more and they are not tin hat sources. Makes things a little different. low risk go back to work, therapeutics with keeping high risk isolated, I think this is a viable plan to get going again. Like some other countries already have. Politics are killing us.
Attachments
This is just using carpenter math, correct me if I skipped a step or three...
The latest number I saw was 40% of cases asymptotic. But even if it were 80%
3.5 million confirmed cases X 5 (3.5M being 20% of cases) =17.5 million assumed cases
US population +/- 320M, it would only be 5.4% infected at this point, that’s a long way to go to hit 70-80% for herd immunity.
*! Oh wait, 80% diagnosed asymptotic, not sure how to calculate based on that number, not sure what that stat says about total possible cases.
https://news.trust.org/item/20200716143306-y6l4u
The latest number I saw was 40% of cases asymptotic. But even if it were 80%
3.5 million confirmed cases X 5 (3.5M being 20% of cases) =17.5 million assumed cases
US population +/- 320M, it would only be 5.4% infected at this point, that’s a long way to go to hit 70-80% for herd immunity.
*! Oh wait, 80% diagnosed asymptotic, not sure how to calculate based on that number, not sure what that stat says about total possible cases.
https://news.trust.org/item/20200716143306-y6l4u
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its 5.4 percent because everything is shut down, if everything opens up and those at low risk take the mask off and go back to work it would shorten the duration of time to hit the herd immunity by quite a margin.