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Housing sales takes a big jump !

BigAl

Gone But Not Forgotten
SUPER Site Supporter
This is exactly what we needed . Housing sales are uo 10% over last month ! The stock market has reacted with roaring approval and has gained more than 140 Points since opening bell this morning . There's some money going to be made today for most people invested in the market !:clap::clap:
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
This is exactly what we needed . Housing sales are uo 10% over last month ! The stock market has reacted with roaring approval and has gained more than 140 Points. . .
You will also notice that the US Dollar is plummeting compared to foreign currencies so our buying power is dropping like a rock, and gold/silver are climbing again. Bonds are taking a dump too.

Not all is rosy in the US economy.
 

BigAl

Gone But Not Forgotten
SUPER Site Supporter
You talking existing or new home sales??
Total home sales
You will also notice that the US Dollar is plummeting compared to foreign currencies so our buying power is dropping like a rock, and gold/silver are climbing again. Bonds are taking a dump too.

Not all is rosy in the US economy.

Is the glass half full or half empty !:doh: AT least its a start .

What a bubble popper you are !!
 

thcri

Gone But Not Forgotten
Total home sales

Can you break it out? You see I have been hearing the same thing for some time. Existing homes to me is totally different from New Homes. New Homes don't effect the construction industry like new homes do. New Construction is what will help the economy more than anything right now both residential and commercial.

New home permits are up yes, but new home permit values are way down. Not trying to be negative just trying to figure out if your news is going to effect me or not. So far I have not seen really anything effecting my business. Light at the other end of the tunnel is still small.
 

BigAl

Gone But Not Forgotten
SUPER Site Supporter
Maybe this will help .I pulled this off the net

In October, existing home sales rose by 10.1% and are now 23.5% above the year-ago rate. Sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million, up from 5.54% in September and a 4.94 million pace a year ago.
Existing single family home sales rose by 9.7% to a 5.33 million pace, while condo sales soared by 13.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000. Sales have been greatly aided by the "first time" homebuyer tax credit, which while eventually extended and expanded, for most of the month looked like was about to expire. Thus, in October people were scrambling to try to get in under the wire.




This is the fifth straight month that existing home sales have exceeded year-ago levels. Even more impressive is the fact that actual, non-seasonally adjusted sales actually were higher in October than they were in September. This is highly unusual, since existing home sales are highly seasonal and sales normally drop sharply in October, as can be seen in the graph below (from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/.) We are almost back up to the October 2007 level of sales on an actual, unadjusted basis (which is reasonable to look at when comparing the same month of the year).
1258996432.jpg

There was even more good news in that inventories also declined by 3.7% from September, and are down 14.9% from a year ago. Combined with the rising sales pace, that brought the months supply down to 7.0 from 8.0 last month. We are almost at "normal levels" of inventory relative to sales, but not quite. Still where we are today is much healthier than the double-digit months tha prevailed for most of 2008, and this is the second sharp drop in a row. The graph below also comes from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/.
1258996450.jpg

Lower mortgages rates -- greatly suppressed by the Fed’s policy of buying up $1.25 Trillion of mortgages backed by Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM - News) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE - News) but that buying spree is expected to end at the end of the first quarter -- have also helped the existing homes sales market. In October, 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell to an average of 4.95%, down 2.17% from 5.06% in September and down 20.16% from the year-ago level of 6.20%.
A third and very important reason for the rebound in existing home sales is that prices have come down. Overall, median existing home prices are now $173,100, a 7.1% decline from a year ago. Existing single-family home prices have held up a little bit better, down 6.8% from a year ago, while prices for Condos are down 10.4% from last year.
Regionally, existing home sales were up by double digits for the month in every region but the West. The Midwest led the way with sales up 14.4% to an annual rate of 1.43 million. From last year, sales in the region are up 28.8%.
In the very important South region, sales rose by 12.7% and are up 25.7% from a year ago. Sales in the South were at an annual rate of 2.30 million, or 37.7% of the total. While that is well below the over 50% rate that the region accounts for when it comes to new home sales, it still makes it the largest region of the country by a wide margin.
The Northeast is the smallest region, with sales at an annual rate of 1.06 million, but that rate was up 11.6% from September and is up 27.7% from a year ago. The rebound was much more muted out West, where sales were up just 1.6% for the month and just 12.0% year over year. The West has also suffered by far the largest decline in median prices, down 14.7% from a year ago -- more than double the next largest decline (the South -- 14.7%).
In the Northeast, which is the most expensive market (median price of $235,400) prices are down just 2.6% year over year. In the Midwest, the most inexpensive market (median price $146,600) prices are actually up 1.1% from a year ago.
While the news on existing home sales is good, and the existing home market is FAR larger than the new home market, it is also far less significant to the economy than is the new home market. New homes directly stimulate residential investment, which is an important (and volatile) component of GDP. Lots of labor and materials go into building a new home.
Existing home sales have only an indirect effect on the economy. They stimulate sales of things like paint from Sherwin Williams (NYSE: SHW - News) and furniture from La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB - News) as people redecorate, but such spending is much smaller than building a whole new house. In other words, this is good news, just don’t get too carried away about its significance.
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
Is the glass half full or half empty !:doh: AT least its a start .

What a bubble popper you are !!

Is it a START or is it FALSE OPTIMISM based on one promising piece of data, which could mean a FALSE START . . .

Look at it this way. Sales of houses have dropped virtually every month for nearly 2 years. A "big" bump of 10% is still a very small bump in terms of what it used to be because the actual numbers are much lower and therefore a % increase that appears to be significant may not really be significant. Look at your charts and compare the sales to 3 or 4 years ago, all of a sudden that big increase doesn't look like much.
 

thcri

Gone But Not Forgotten
Your article don't mention much about New Home Sales which drives the economy more than most other things. I did highlight what I did pick up on it just skimming over it. The current administration at this time is doing nothing that I am aware of to help the construction industry other than some government projects. The stimulus for new homes has helped some but really not doing much at least in our area.

While the news on existing home sales is good, and the existing home market is FAR larger than the new home market, it is also far less significant to the economy than is the new home market. New homes directly stimulate residential investment, which is an important (and volatile) component of GDP. Lots of labor and materials go into building a new home.
Existing home sales have only an indirect effect on the economy. They stimulate sales of things like paint from Sherwin Williams (NYSE: SHW - News) and furniture from La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB - News) as people redecorate, but such spending is much smaller than building a whole new house. In other words, this is good news, just don’t get too carried away about its significance.
 

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
Careful with what you write, Al will call you a BUBBLE BUSTER too.
 

thcri

Gone But Not Forgotten
Careful with what you write, Al will call you a BUBBLE BUSTER too.

Not trying to be a Bubble Buster. Too many times in the last year I have heard things are turning around. I keep getting these people telling me how good the market is, " Oh new construction is up you should be making all kinds of money". Yeah new home sales are up, it is the first time home buyers market the stimulus money is going to. Small homes; So I have to do 5 of them to equal the one I did 4 years ago in dollars. Not being pessimistic, just the truth.

Al's article is good news, in the sense if we deplete the amount of existing homes on the market then new construction has to increase. :clap: I hope :hide: seriously not being pessimistic.:whistling:
 

muleman

Gone But Not Forgotten
GOLD Site Supporter
How many of these folks are actually downsizing their houses to what they can afford? The foreclosures among fixed rate motgages are actually up and commercial real estate is going under in many market areas.
 

REDDOGTWO

Unemployed Veg. Peddler
SUPER Site Supporter
It will take a couple of years and lots of sales to begin to deplete the amount of homes in the marketplace, both new and used. The amount of repossessions are not going down. Down in Florida the repossessed house beside us sold for about seventy five per cent of what it did in 2000. It was purchased as a winter home by some couple up north.

For the amounts that some of these homes are being sold for, they should not be considered sales but just dumping of property by the re possessors.

Sorry to pop your bubble Al, but that is the way I see it.
 

BigAl

Gone But Not Forgotten
SUPER Site Supporter
Sorry to pop your bubble Al, but that is the way I see it.


Your all in cahoots against me !!!:doh::sad: I bet the ring leader is Bob S . !!!

The banks are getting ready to dump a lot more foreclousers on the market in Dec. Hang on !!!!It will not be pretty .
 

REDDOGTWO

Unemployed Veg. Peddler
SUPER Site Supporter
Your all in cahoots against me !!!:doh::sad: I bet the ring leader is Bob S . !!!

The banks are getting ready to dump a lot more foreclousers on the market in Dec. Hang on !!!!It will not be pretty .

Yes, Bob S. called us all up and told us to do this to ya.:yum:

My main concern is the commercial market as I have a lot REIT's in my portfolio and am concerned what a tightened credit market could do to them. I have weathered a couple of downswings in the market on them and the valuation does not concern me as they are long term investments geared to the dividends which are used to purchase additional stocks. The concern is the lack of funding which could eventually force some fire sales on properties. I do not think that it will come to that, but anything is possible.
 

BigAl

Gone But Not Forgotten
SUPER Site Supporter
Yes, Bob S. called us all up and told us to do this to ya.:yum:

My main concern is the commercial market as I have a lot REIT's in my portfolio and am concerned what a tightened credit market could do to them. I have weathered a couple of downswings in the market on them and the valuation does not concern me as they are long term investments geared to the dividends which are used to purchase additional stocks. The concern is the lack of funding which could eventually force some fire sales on properties. I do not think that it will come to that, but anything is possible.

Yep . Commericial property is a real crap shoot right now . I have been lucky on my REIT stock as it has actually gained and like you I am holding long term .
 
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