The Gold ETF GLD is approaching it's 50SMA. Be on the watch for a bounce if it drops below the 50SMA. If it goes through the 50SMA but doesn't bounce, I'd be looking at a stronger dollar.
Agreed on your first statement but see no real logic for a strong $$$. Perhaps a false perception of a strong dollar but not any real strength.
Strikes me that we have found price support for GOLD. The slide seems to have stopped and its just sort of hovering in the current range. I think we may soon see an uptick. There is talk again of inflation, and there is also talk of slower than expected growth in many sectors. That all makes gold (and most commodities) look better.
I don't believe it was unexpected. I heard a week or 2 that gold hit it's peak for awhile and was going to go down or stay flat. That kept me away.