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Inernet infra-structure becoming unstable ... crash predicted.

Sir Knight

Sir Knight

New member
http://www.informationweek.com/news/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=204200341 ...
Report: Internet Outages Could Occur By 2010 As Capacity Stalls​

The next Google, YouTube, or Amazon might not arise if the situation isn't fixed, researchers with Nemertes report.

By Paul McDougall of InformationWeek
November 20, 2007 12:12 PM

Booming demand for Internet services combined with insufficient infrastructure investment could leave the Web vulnerable to brown outs within three years, a study released Tuesday predicted. Nemertes Research said Internet providers need to invest from $42 billion to $55 billion -- or 60% to 70% more than current plans call for -- to stave off interruptions to the digital economy that could happen if the 'Net bogs down. "The nextGoogle (NSDQ: GOOG), YouTube, or Amazon (NSDQ: AMZN) might not arise" if the situation isn't fixed, Nemertes said.

The problem, the group said, is that bandwidth usage is outpacing infrastructure build outs. While core fiber and switching/routing technology "will scale nicely," Internet access resources could soon be overwhelmed in three to five years, Nemertes said.

The trouble could be particularly acute in North America, the researchers said.

"Rather like osteoporosis, the underinvestment in infrastructure will painlessly and invisibly leach competitiveness out of the economy," said Nemertes.

Nemertes conceded that its study, in many ways, represents a best guess at what's happening with the Web. "The Internet is almost opaque to serious researchers, even those with the necessary technical skills, integrity and desire," said the group.

That's because commercial Internet providers closely guard information about usage and technology roadmaps. "Carriers and content providers refuse to reveal their inner workings," said Nemertes, adding that it's understandable that service providers are reluctant to reveal data that might undermine their competitiveness or compromise user privacy.

Nonetheless, "we conclude by urging content and service providers to cooperate with researchers in sharing data," said the study's authors. Nemertes also said Congress should consider tax credits to spur Internet providers to add more broadband capacity.
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Melensdad

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
Anyone watch the new Bruce Willis DIE HARD movie? While not an unintended system failure like described above, it is about an intended crashing of our systems, all of which are now computer controlled. Interesting problem. Exactly how would we all cope without the information that is run over wires and bounced off satellites?

For example, I have a Tri-Fuel generator set up to run off natural gas (with gasoline as a back-up). We've never had a natural gas failure in my area during my 47 years of life . . . but if the computers that control the flow were interrupted would my generator have fuel?

All power is controlled in some way by computers. All financial transactions are managed in some way by computers. I'm not saying that the entire scenario set forth in the movie is plausible, but parts of it may be possible, even if only regionally and if due to unintended consequences.

Should we consider the article above as a wake up call to examine how we do things?
 
Melensdad

Melensdad

Jerk in a Hawaiian Shirt & SNOWCAT Moderator
Staff member
GOLD Site Supporter
Cityboy said:
Just like the Y2K doom & gloom predictions that didn't happen. :rolleyes:

Not gonna happen.
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To that I will agree, at least on a wide scale basis. But it is reasonable to presume that it could happen regionally? We've certainly had major brown outs of our power grid (look to California and its "rolling brownouts") and the east coast has had similar brown/black outs of its grid.
 
Cityboy

Cityboy

Banned
As long as the federal regulators are kept out of it, there will be no major problems.

What is the common denominator in brownouts? Government regulation.
 
thcri

thcri

Gone But Not Forgotten
If it did happen yes we would be in serious trouble. About a week ago our server went down. Yeah it runs all of our dispatching, email, accounting programs and we found out the hard way on how to run a business without a computer.
 
Sir Knight

Sir Knight

New member
Cityboy said:
Just like the Y2K doom & gloom predictions that didn't happen. :rolleyes:

Not gonna happen.
Click to expand...
And do you have any idea how much effort was put in to ensure that Y2K didn't happen? I was a technical manager with a major telecommunications company at the time and we put in many, many months to ensure that the problem was avoided.

The main reason why this was done was because companies feared financial loss if Y2K happened. Profit and lack of profit was the motivation. Will fixing the possible internet problem have the same motivation?
 
Cityboy

Cityboy

Banned
Sir Knight said:
And do you have any idea how much effort was put in to ensure that Y2K didn't happen? I was a technical manager with a major telecommunications company at the time and we put in many, many months to ensure that the problem was avoided.

The main reason why this was done was because companies feared financial loss if Y2K happened. Profit and lack of profit was the motivation. Will fixing the possible internet problem have the same motivation?
Click to expand...

Did anything you worked on actually prevent anything? I doubt it. Your company did not want to be in the position of not doing anything should there have been a breakdown. But lots of money was spent simply because of the hype. My company included.

I was filling up my pickup just before Y2K and a guy in front of me in a van was filling two 55 gallon drums with gasoline...just in case. He was stuck with two 450# drums of fuel at his house for a few weeks. Better safe than sorry, I guess.

As long as the govermnment stays out of it, the internet will continue to expand and operate just fine.

I just keep a couple thousand rounds of ammunition on hand. If the shit really hit the fan, the internet is the least of your problems. :shitHitFan:
 
Sir Knight

Sir Knight

New member
Tariffs which began prior to 1/1/2000 and would have had a negative value and those telephones calls would not have gone through. According to The 1984 Greene decree, not more than 40% of tariffs could be changed at any one time. That 40% is the MAXIMUM. Assuming that the maximum were changed on 1/1/2000, 60% of all telephone calls wouldn't have been able to go through and that is the BEST case possibility. Assuming no tariffs were changed on 1/1/2000, 100% of all calls wouldn't have gone through.

It would have eventually have sorted itself out since tariffs have a maximum life of 3 years. So by 1/1/2004, there would have been no problem but prior to that, a certain number of telephone calls wouldn't have gone through.
 
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